George Herbert Walker Bush Only a few months ago, George Bush's re-election seemed like a sure thing. But the recession shows no immediate signs of ending and the nation's economic woes have cast a shadow over the GOP's hopes of an easy victory in the '92 presidential campaign. Bush's overall popularity in the polls has dropped to less than 50 % for the first time, according to a Time/CNN poll. The poll found 46 % approved of Bush's performance. The euphoria after the allied victory over Iraq, when Bush's ratings soared to 90 %, has dissipated. The economy has been a problem for Bush almost from the day he entered the White House. In his first 2 1/2 years in office, the US experienced its lowest growth since the late 1940s. In the last 3 quarters, the White House has conceded that recovery will not be as strong as had been hoped. Among the presidential role models Bush will hardly want to emulate are Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter, who were both denied re-election partly by so-called pocketbook issues. Bush has been trying to shift the blame to Congress in an effort to capitalize on a growing anti-Washington mood. "I don't think Bush can be defeated by any Democrat," says Oregon GOP chairman Craig Berkman. "If he has a close race, the problem is the economy--historically, people vote their pocketbook." Carter devised the "misery index"--the unemployment and infation rates--to throw Ford on the defensive only to be driven out of office himself after Ronald Reagan asked voters in 1980: "Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?" Some analysts say it's too early to push the panic button: the election is still nearly a year away. Nevertheless, Bush has reacted to criticism that he is spending too much time on foreign policy and neglecting the pile of problems on his doorstep. Just before he left for a trip to Rome to attend a NATO summit, Bush canceled a trip to Asia. He said he hated going away "with Congress still in session" and insisted it was "crazy" to think he was bowing to political pressure. Bush hasn't officially said whether he'll run again, but the race clearly appears to be on. At a GOP fund-raiser in Houston Nov 1, Bush lambasted Democrats and said, "I'm getting warmed up for next year." As president, Bush's personal style is a study in contradictions. There's the Old Money WASP Bush with the patrician, prep-school veneer, and there's the Texas good ole' boy Bush who relishes pork rinds and fishing. Though he is 67, Bush manages to convey a youthful public image, whether he's piloting a power boat, dashing through a game of speed golf or jogging. He has logged more than 340,000 miles on Air Force One. He visited more foreign countries in his first 2 years of office than Ronald Reagan did in 8. "I love to go abroad," Bush once told schoolchildren. If Bush were reelected, he would be 72 by the end of the term, or older than any president other than Reagan. Earlier this year when Bush was hospitalized for 2 days with atrial fibrillation, an irregular heartbeat, his health raised concerns. And it focused renewed attention on VP Dan Quayle and his credentials to assume the presidency. Blood tests showed Bush's problem was the result of Graves' disease, which causes overactive thyroid glands. Bush has said that only a serious health problem would prevent him from running. In September, Bush's doctors gave him "a perfect bill of health." Born June 12, 1924, in Milton, Mass, into a politically prominent family, Bush has sought to play down his privileged early years. He attended Phillips Academy and Yale, where he got his BA, fittingly enough, in economics. During WW II, Bush served in the Navy and saw combat action as a pilot. He received the Distinguished Flying Cross. After finishing college, he left the Northeast when he was 24 and moved with his family to Texas, where he co-founded Zapata petroleum, a drilling equipment sales company. Bush says he "learned a few things about life in a place called Texas," working in the oil business and raising a family: "Well I may not be the most eloquent, but I learned that, early on, that eloquence won't draw oil from the ground." Bush began his political career in 1964 with an unsuccessful run for a House seat from Texas, challenging a liberal Democrat. During the campaign, Bush called himself a "100 %" Goldwater man and opposed the 1964 Civil Rights Act. He ran again from Houston 2 years later and won. He left political office in 1971 after 2 unsuccessful Senate bids. For Bush, the road to the White House has been bumpy. Bush wanted to be president in 1980, but lost the GOP nomination to Ronald Reagan, who chose him for the ticket. In the 1988 campaign, Bush got off to a shaky start. He lost his first test, the Iowa caucuses, finishing 3d behind Sen Robert Dole (R-Kan) and Christian broadcaster Pat Robertson. But Bush bounced back to win the New Hampshire primary and virtually locked up the race by April. Bush won the '88 election against Michael Dukakis with 53 % of the vote. It was a smaller margin than in '80, when the Reagan-Bush ticket got nearly 59 % of the popular vote. HIS PROGRAM In his inaugural speech, Bush defined his agenda. He promised to fight the "scourge of drugs" and homelessness, to tackle the deficit and to end 2 decades of divisiveness between the White House and Congress. "My friends we have work to do," he said on Jan 20, 1989. "There are the homeless, lost and roaming...There is crime to be conquered, the rough crime of the streets." "We must ensure that America stands before the world: united, strong, at peace and fiscally sound." Democrats maintain that Bush, who has sought to portray himself as the "education president" and the "environment president" has failed to deliver on the domestic front. The image of a president preoccupied with international affairs made headlines earlier this year when Time magazine, in its annual Man of the Year feature, portrayed the president as "the 2 George Bushes." Time said Bush was "a highly capable captain of foreign policy and a dawdling, disengaged caretaker of domestic affairs." The battle lines for the '92 presidential election were already beginning to take shape. On the domestic front, Bush lists among his accomplishments 3 laws passed last year that would: * reduce air pollution. * prohibit discrimination against the disabled. * subsidize child care for low-income families. Bush's spokesman say he has also blocked unwise legislation from the Democratic Congress, vetoing 24 bills. The bills ranged from family leave to textile import quotas to civil rights. Bush has been sharply critical of Congress for failing to act on his proposed crime and transportation bills. Bush's appointments have sometimes created a firestorm of controversy, beginning with his selection of Dan Quayle. The list also includes: * Sen John Tower of Texas, whose nomination as secretary of defense was rejected by the Senate. Tower was killed this year in a plane crash. * Ex-Chief of Staff John Sununu, whose use of government jets for private trips made headlines earlier this year. * CIA chief Robert Gates, whose nomination reopened the Iran-Contra affair. * Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas. Bush's strongest public support has come in the foreign policy arena. To some extent, history has been on his side. His administration came to power at a fortuitous time: Communism was collapsing in Eastern Europe and the Berlin Wall was tumbling down. Recent events in the Soviet Union seem to signal the Cold War's grand finale. Bush showed a willingness to act boldly in the Persian Gulf crisis, although some critics say he ended the war too quickly and failed to dislodge Saddam Hussein from power. In the Mideast, his administration is still trying to bring all the parties to the conference table. THE CAMPAIGN Bush isn't expected to formally announce his reelection until early next year. His advisers say there's no rush. In the meantime, he can take advantage of the power of incumbency by appearing to be presidential, rather than a political candidate with a partisan agenda. Nevertheless, Bush has authorized his supporters to begin raising money for the campaign. According to Reuters, GOP sources say the fund-raising goal is $26 million, the maximum allowed under campaign spending limits. On Dec 5, Bush named his campaign team. The key members: * Commerce Secretary Robert Mosbacher, 64, is the general campaign chairman. * Pollster Robert Teeter, 52, is the campaign's chairman and chief strategist. * Fred Malek, 54, a businessman, is overseeing day-to-day operations. * Charles Black, 44, a senior adviser to the Republican Natl Committee, is signing on as a campaign adviser.