SB PROP @ ARRL $ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation DE KT7H
QST DE W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 20  ARLP020
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  May 21, 1993
To All Radio Amateurs

Solar activity dropped to very low levels last week.  The flux went
down below 100, and there were very few periods when conditions were
disturbed by flares or coronal holes.  There were many times when
the Boulder K index was zero, and it only got up to five on May 14
at 1500z, and again on May 16 at 0600z.

Solar flux should rise to around 140 on June 5 or 6.  There is a
possibility of a disturbance just before that due to coronal holes.

We are heading into Summer conditions, and along with lower solar
flux, expect noisier listening and lower MUF.

Sunspot Numbers from May 13 through 19 were 93, 72, 53, 62, 49, 39
and 47, with a mean of 59.3.  10.7 cm flux was 119.8, 112.1, 104.4,
98.8, 96.2, 91.3 and 90.9, with a mean of 101.9.

The path projection for this week is from the center of the United
States to Spratly Island.

75 and 80 meters are a lost cause.  40 meters should have a brief
opening around 1100z to 1200z.  30 meters should be open from 1000z
to 1330z, and 20 meters from 0930z to 1430z.  17 meters looks
marginal, with some possible openings around 1300z to 1400z.  The
outlook for 15, 12 and 10 meters over this path does not look good.
/EX