Will the Macintosh Follow  
     the Same Path as Apple II?  
     by John Majka - from Access  
 
     "Mene mene tekel upharsin" was written on the wall of the castle of 
     Nebuchadnezzar, King of Babylon, and surrounding territory, a number 
     of years ago by an invisible hand. Nobody could guess its meaning 
     until Daniel came along and told the King that his kingdom would 
     soon come to an end. Today we still get messages and sometimes by a 
     not too invisible hand.  

     On December 24, 1991, I received a booklet from Apple Computer, Inc. 
     entitled, "Blueprint for the Decade--an overview of apple technology 
     and strategies." This booklet is supposed to let third party 
     developers of software and hardware know that Apple's plans are in 
     the 1990's. Mostly the booklet describes plans for System 7, 
     networking, Object Oriented Programming System (OOPS), and other
     software. There is approximately a two-page section on hardware 
     about Apple's new Reduced Instruction Set Computer (RISC) CPU. 
     It is described as a RISC-based Macintosh and refers to the machine 
     now in use as a 680x0 based Macintosh. It has less instructions than 
     a Complete Instruction Set CPU (CISC). Because it can get by with 
     fewer instructions, RISC computers are faster than CISC. Today most 
     engineering workstations use RISC technology.  

     After reading through two pages about the RISC based Macintosh, how 
     it will emulate the real 680x0 machine, and how Apple will give you 
     a "smooth migration path" to it, there is a very interesting and 
     familiar paragraph:  "Many Apple customers will find their computer 
     needs are sufficiently met by the 680x0 CISC architecture and 
     built-in capabilities of the System 7 Macintosh. That is why we 
     clearly anticipate introducing a new 680x0 desktop portable, and 
     low-cost systems well after the initial release of RISC-based 
     systems. Because we are committed to the coexistence of the two 
     platforms, we are ensuring that work environments and networks can 
     routinely mix 680x0 and RISC-based Macintosh models... Despite the 
     excitement surrounding the introduction of a RISC-based Macintosh, 
     680x0-based Macintosh will remain viable for many years to come." 
     That should warm the cockles of your heart. Apple is telling us 
     don't worry, be happy. The new Macintosh computer you just bought 
     "Will remain viable for many years to come." Of course, this is from
     the same people who brought you "Apple II Forever" and "we will 
     manufacture and support the Apple II as long as people want to buy 
     it." But, Apple doesn't advertise the Apple II computer. We have also 
     heard that while Apple encourages dealers to carry IBM-PC clones, it 
     also discourages dealer from carrying the Apple II line. So if people 
     don't know about them, and dealers won't carry them, how are you 
     supposed to buy an Apple II?  

     Based on the company's past history, this is what will probably 
     happen in the not too distant future. Long before the RISC is 
     introduced, Apple will ask current third-party developers of 
     software and hardware to help develop for the RISC computer. The 
     developers will probably jump at the chance, because it will be a 
     new machine, and they'll make a lot of money. The new owners will 
     need new software.  What's written in the two pages in Apple's 
     booklet about the RISC-based Macintosh is the first step.  What Apple 
     is telling us is: It's coming.  The RISC operating system will be 
     entirely different from the Macintosh system. Some developers are 
     large enough to support two or more computer systems, But since most 
     developers aren't very big and can't afford to spend time on two 
     entirely different computers, they will have to decide on which one
     --the 680x0 or the RISC-based Macintosh. Their decision will 
     obviously be based on sales and profit. With Apple's support for the 
     RISC technology, this could mean software for the 680x0 Macintosh 
     will dry up. 

     And you probably won't see the 680x0 Macintosh advertised anymore. 
     Without promotion and with Apple's expected encouragement of the 
     RISC-based Macs, more developers will drop out of the 680x0 market 
     and dealers will stop selling them. Very soon after the RISC- based 
     machine is introduced, your 680x0-based Macintosh will likely 
     become an "Orphan" computer--just like the Apple II. 
 
     About the author-- 
     John Majka is acting president of Alliance International 
     Incorporated, a group whose goal is promoting the preservation of 
     Apple II.