The New Marketplace: by Robert C. Brenner While analysts, editors, and industry pundits debate the affect of the new political "leadership," I maintain that it really doesn't matter who is in the White House. A process is underway that cannot be stopped. It can only be helped or hindered by the party in power. This paradigm shift is causing a major restructuring of the American workplace. The phenomenon is so widespread and so pervasive that the way we organize to do business is changing forever. Alvin Toffler describes it as a shift in power from wealth to information. Other business analysts and futurists describe what we're experiencing as the greatest change in business structure in history. The current paradigm - the accepted way that we organize and conduct business - is being radically modified. Corporate America is restructuring itself to organize around technology. A hundred years ago, half of all American workers were engaged in agriculture. Since 1950, low skilled labor jobs began getting squeezed out of manufacturing. Starting in 1980, high skilled jobs began to disappear as computers and automation entered the workplace. Now, just since 1990, 70% of the manufacturing jobs eliminated in plant closings and layoffs have been white collar positions. Most of these jobs are gone forever. The change is being driven by the assimilation of microelectronic technology. The computer revolution began as the 70s rolled into the 80s. The introduction of the IBM PC in 1981 Marketplace continued on Pg 4 legitimized the acceptance of desktop personal computers in the offices of business America. Experts on the introduction of new technology point out that it takes a generation (20-30 years) for society to assimilate a major technological change and businesses to organize around the technology. The television was invented in the late 1940s, but it took until 1960 for TV to become commonplace. A nation cannot retool overnight. It will take until the end of this century for our society to fully assimilate desktop computing and the myriad of electronic products that interface and enhance the use of these machines. In parts of the U.S., many businesses still don't know how to employ computers to gain a competitive advantage. For the first half of most transitions to new technology, the general standard of living falls - it has. Smokestack Economy Crumbling In the past, the process to assimilate technology was accompanied by massive changes in the workplace today's paradigm shift is producing the same results. We're seeing corporate reorganizations, restructuring, and layoffs on a massive scale. Our smokestack economy is disintegrating as the pyramid organization structure, CEO at the top and workers at the bottom, begins to implode in upon itself. In trade publications, in almost every industry, you can read about corporate redesign and massive worker displacement. The Wall Street Journal has reported fundamental changes in the U.S. job market. Our economy is rapidly becoming high-tech. As a result, jobs aren't being temporarily lost because of the recession. They are being permanently wiped out by better computers, improved machinery, and new ways of organizing work. This is shifting many educated people into unchallenging jobs or completely out of the workplace. Add to this an uneducated underclass incapable of handling almost any high-tech job, and we find our country in an agonizing metamorphosis. Complete layers of management are being eliminated. Organization structures are flattening horizontally. We have not "bottomed" out in the elimination of the old "smokestack" types of jobs. This won't occur for several more years. But losing 'labor-intensive' jobs while gaining 'high-tech' jobs is producing a net loss of employment in the very industries that typically provide jobs for segments of our population not educationally suited for higher-tech work. Management and skilled jobs in the smokestack sector will continue to disappear no matter who runs our country. But new jobs are replacing the old. These new high value jobs are being created as fast as electronic technology becomes a part of our working life. With change comes a new workplace based on an electronic infrastructure and with workers who are no longer tied to a desk in a common location. The conventional job description and the department organization chart are disappearing as companies begin to reorganize. These new organizations will be able to instantly restructure according to the job. As information races throughout our world, value is being added to what we know (or can find out). Business power is shifting to those who can collect, maintain, and use information. Change: The Economic Battlefield This has presented the desktop publisher with an opportunity for profit that has never existed for the typical graphics designer and printer. Our world is entering an information war on an economic battlefield, and the DTPer has a commanding lead for top profits in the near future. Small businesses have traditionally operated lean and fast. The horizontal organization structure and rapid response capability enable our profession to succeed beyond our wildest imaginations. We accept and welcome change. Change is part of our professional lives. However, it is resisted in the bureaucracies of large companies and the government. Change is traumatic for workers in large companies. Thousands of experienced white collar workers are suddenly finding themselves "out of work" at 45 years old - too young to "retire" and too old to get rehired in the same type of work. Middle income jobs are being permanently eliminated by a need to organize around knowledge and the technology needed to move information. A recent article in Electronic Engineering Times reports that "three million managers have lost jobs since the mid 1980s, and another 2.5 million will lose theirs by 1995 as companies downsize and flatten the pyramidal structure." As old job positions go away, new jobs in information technology are being born and the appearance of these types of jobs will accelerate as the decade closes. By 2010, there will be a huge need for information workers. Politicians Continue To Blow Smoke Retraining America is on the agenda of politicians and corporate leaders. The problem is that Washington is still focused on addressing production line smokestack industry solutions. They want to create jobs for low skilled workers. They don't explain that these jobs are rapidly moving off-shore or to Mexico. The proper solution is to help workers learn how to collect, move, and use information. Brain-power is becoming the highest form of economic advantage. Another problem, and one not addressed by our recent presidential candidates, is the fact that many of the blue collar workers who have seen their jobs disappear are not easily retrainable to handle technical work. A recent study discovered that almost 40% of displaced blue collar workers are functionally illiterate. Another 40% are marginally illiterate. While Washington and many corporate managers continue to think in terms of moving men and materials, a smokestack mentality, the real product of our future is information. Our schools still haven't grasped the concept that education must be changed. President Clinton boasts that he will create millions of jobs. The problem with this concept is that he will create jobs paying minimum wage. The lower income level of society will grow to bursting. Only 730,000 out of the projected 6.5 million new jobs that are expected between now and the end of the decade will be middle income jobs (paying over $25,500 a year). The higher paying jobs will be those closely associated with the Information Revolution. And few businesses are better positioned to optimize profits in this new economy than the desktop publishers and multimedia designers of today. Unemployment is moving from quantitative to qualitative. There will be plenty of work and money to be earned for those who possess the skills to handle information. Our Transition Into The Future Customers are asking for more than just output products; they also want answers. It is this information that can add value to your products and services. You must be prepared to charge for this information. From today on, it is knowledge, rather than cheap labor, that will embody and add value. When you describe the benefits of your services, be certain to point out the time that can be saved by the knowledge and experience that your shop can offer. Many customers don't yet understand the value of information. They soon will. Information is becoming a value-added commodity. The rate of technological change has become white hot and business success will depend more on electronic highways than ever in history. The way you organize your shop - equipment layout, hardware and software used, telecommunication capabilities available, etc. - will directly determine your bottom line. You must be able to rapidly shift work flow patterns and be sensitive to customers who expect hand-holding and fast turnaround. You can help our nation transition into its inevitable future. Emphasize the critical value of human resources and conduct worker cross-training. Support work-at-home, flexitime, and job sharing. Form strategic alliances and organize your shop around the technology that is available. In this way, you can increase productivity and meet the ever changing demands of a fickle customer base. We need vision in our profession. A lack of vision in the leadership of corporate America means that many large companies will no longer be around by the end of this decade. As reported by Shearson Lehman Brothers recently: "There's a long-term, secular change sweeping the industry, and some com-panies aren't going to make it." You can. The restructuring of American business does not remove the need for good document design and publishing. As companies shrink their graphics staffs, offer to support an outsourcing arrangement. Consider hiring the displaced graphics designers and DTPers as you go after projects that continue to be created inside these new organizations. Become expert in explaining the advantages of outsourcing DTP work. Learn about and use telecommunications - modem and fax. Have freelancers work from home within or outside your city. Modem transfer has become accurate, fast, and convenient. Be open to telecommuting. Only by taking a leadership position and developing vision can you help your shop and our nation through this economic and social upheaval. You can win. We can all win. U.S. To Play A Dominant Role. The U.S. will soon become one of the most competitive nations in a world in which information plays a dominant role. Our world is rapidly becoming a global village with global customs and porous borders. The rich flow of information is producing a world of many unequal groups that are rapidly becoming aware of each other. While everyone seeks economic well-being and a secure lifestyle, information technology and the desktop publisher possess the keys to success in the world of tomorrow. The pursuit of wealth is shifting to a pursuit of information. The application of information will determine who are the millionaires of tomorrow. Your company can be like a weed in an open field. With the sun and water of information management, you can experience amazing growth. In the 1980s, small businesses operating on their own created most of the jobs. It will also be small businesses that create most of the new jobs in the 90s. Information is changing the relationships of management to worker, citizen to government, and even the balance of power in our shrinking world. Alliances, partnerships, and joint development will reshape the way we do business. As we enter the 21st century, you can position yourself and your company to lead the profession in the application of information. Power is shifting, and those who possess the know-how in collecting, processing, and distributing information will be the decision makers of tomorrow. Organize around the technology and you'll win. Remain stagnant, and you'll soon be pushed off the path to success. Robert Brenner is President of Brenner Information Group, an information collection, packaging and distribution company located in San Diego. He is the author and Publisher of Modems Made Easy and Pricing Guide for Desktop Publishing Services. His many activities include computer systems integration and teaching project management and desktop publishing at local colleges and universities. Professor Brenner can be contacted by writing to him at 13223 Black Mountain 1-430, San Diego, CA 92129, or by calling him at (619)538-0093.