SB PROP @ ARRL $ARLP009
ARLP009 Propagation DE KT7H
QST DE W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9  ARLP009
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  March 4, 1994
To All Radio Amateurs

Solar flux was down an average of 10 points this past week, but
conditions were much more stable.  Most days the A index was in the
single digits, and many periods had a K index of one or zero.  This
means much less absorption of radio waves and better propagation
than the previous week.

Gradually there is a change toward Spring conditions in the Northern
Hemisphere.  Usable frequencies during the day will be a bit lower,
but at night they will be higher.  Look for better propagation to
the Southern Hemisphere as we move toward the equinox, and the
Southern Hemisphere changes from Summer to Fall.

During the DX contest this weekend the solar flux should be reaching
a short term peak, but there is a possibility of more disturbed
conditions due to a recurring coronal hole on the Sun.  These
disturbed conditions could produce K indices of four and five during
the contest and through the next week.  Conditions should stabilize
by the middle of March, when the solar flux will also reach a near
term low near 95.  Look for the flux to peak again near 105 around
March 23.

Sunspot Numbers from February 24 through March 2 were 58, 53, 63,
69, 64, 61 and 77, with a mean of 63.6.  10.7 cm flux was 105, 96.7,
94, 95, 92.5, 94.1 and 98, with a mean of 96.5.

The path prediction for this weekend is from San Francisco,
California to Taiwan.

75 meters should start to open around 0930z and be good from 1030z
to 1500z.  Peak hours are from 1130z to 1400z.  40 meters should
open from 0930z to 1600z, and 30 meters from 0830z to 1700z.

20  meters is likely to be open from 1530z to 1830z and in the
evening on the West Coast until about 0530z, with a slight
possibility of some openings through the night.

Check 17 meters from 2230z to 0400z, and 15 meters from 2300z to
0200z.  12 meters may be open from 2330z top 0030z, and on some days
it may open 30 minutes earlier and close 90 minutes later.

10 meters does not look very good for this path, but there may be an
opening between 2330z to 0100z.
/EX