SB PROP @ ARRL $ARLP013
ARLP013 Propagation DE KT7H
QST DE W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 13  ARLP013
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  April 2, 1994
To All Radio Amateurs

Solar flux is dropping.  This week saw it dip below 90.  In a few
days it should start increasing again to peak near 105 around
April 9.  Then it should drop back to current levels about the third
week in April.

For the next few days expect increasingly disturbed conditions due
to a recurring coronal hole.  The worst conditions are predicted for
April 5 and 6, but stormy conditions will probably last through the
middle of the month, quieting down gradually.

For the long term, the NOAA Space Environment Service Center has
released some new observations for the rest of this cycle and the
start of the next.  They note that sunspot cycles are not exactly 11
years, but vary around a mean of 10.2 to 11.8 years.  A short
current cycle would put the minimum around late 1996.  A long cycle
would end in late 1999.  Another clue is a theory that places the
solar minimum for any cycle about three to five years after the
first spotless day following the peak of the cycle.  That day
occurred last fall, so the minimum should be some time from late
1996 to 1998.

Sunspot Numbers from March 24 through 30 were 46, 56, 39, 41, 32, 23
and 48, with a mean of 40.7.  10.7 cm flux was 92.7, 90.9, 88.5,
88.4, 87.6, 86.1 and 86.3, with a mean of 88.6.

The path projection for this week is from Tuscaloosa, Alabama to
Yemen.

80 meters looks good from 0030z to 0230z, and 40 meters from 2330z
to 0330z.  Check 30 meters from 2300z to 0130z, and again from 0300z
to 0415z.  20 meters should be good from 2030z to around sundown on
the U.S. end, and 17 meters from 1800z to sundown.  15 meters does
not look promising, but check from 1800z to 2130z.  Openings on 12
and 10 meters look very unlikely, but are most likely in the
afternoon.
/EX