SB PROP @ ARRL $ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation DE KT7H
QST DE W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 14  ARLP014
>From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  April 8, 1994
To All Radio Amateurs
 
This was a terrible week for propagation.  There were several days
with no visible sunspots, the solar flux was down about ten points
from the previous week, and the geomagnetic field was very active.
K indices were at four or five most of the time.  Probably the worst
day was April 3 when the A index was 48.
 
The K index is updated every three hours, and can be monitored on
WWV at 18 minutes after each hour, along with the A index and Solar
Flux.  The WWV propagation broadcast can also be heard over the
telephone any time at 303-497-3235.
 
The K index is an indicator of stability of the Earth's geomagnetic
field.  A single point change in the K index is quite significant.
Values below three indicate generally good conditions, while above
three means that conditions are difficult.  A K index of five is
quite bad.
 
The A index is updated once per day, and is based on the K indices
for the previous 24 hours.  A one point change in the A index is
not very significant.  Generally values below ten indicate good
conditions, and above ten indicates a poorer outlook.
 
Look for active geomagnetic conditions to continue for the next
week.  Solar flux should rise slowly to peak above 100 around April
19 or 20.  A indices may not calm down to stable levels until after
April 21.  Then look for more stormy conditions as old problem areas
on the Sun rotate back into view around the end of the month.
 
Sunspot Numbers from March 31 through April 6 were 61, 28, 0, 0, 0,
11 and 0, with a mean of 14.3.  10.7 cm flux was 85, 82.5, 79.3,
77.4, 77.1, 77.1 and 73.2, with a mean of 78.8.
 
The path projection for this week is from Salt Lake City to
Honolulu.
 
80 meters looks good from 0430z to 1400z, peaking from 0630z to
1230z.  40 meters should be open from 0300z to 1400z, with the best
conditions from 0500z to 1300z.  30 meters should be good from 0100z
to 0830z and again from 1600z to 1800z.  Check 20 meters from 1630z
to 0700z, with the best period from 0400z to 0630z.  17 meters
should be open from 1900z to 0330z. 15 meters from 2100z to 0000z,
and on some days as early as 1900z and as late as 0200z.  12 and 10
meters do not look good, but on some days 12 meters may be open from
2030z to 0100z.
/EX