EASTMAN KODAK 8/18/93 8/31/93 52-Wk-Rng FY/Q EPS93 EPS94 PE94 NxtQtr LyQtr Eastman Kodak 61.00 61-39 12/3 3.70 4.60 13.1 **.** **.** EK . Management has announced cash-flow and cost-reduction plan. . Excess cash flow expected to equal $2.6 billion in 1993-1995, substantially exceeding prior estimates. . Capital expenditures should now approximate depreciation. . Cost-cutting moves should be viewed as initial steps. In a letter to shareholders released today, Mr. Kay Whitmore, Kodak's chairman and CEO, outlined the details of a cash-flow and cost-reduction plan presented to the board of directors on August 13. We believe that the cash-generation aspect of the plan is quite positive but view the cost- cutting steps as only a start in reducing Kodak's high cost structure. The cost-cutting effort is likely to accelerate when a new chairman and CEO joins the company later this year. This is likely to occur as a result of the board of directors' decision to ask Mr. Whitmore to resign because the speed and magnitude of his cost-cutting plan was inadequate, in its opinion. Overall, analysts that the plan is an important step in Kodak's ongoing turnaround and increases analysts confidence in a minimum earning power potential for the company of $5-$6 per share. Our 1993 and 1994 estimates of $3.70 and $4.60, respectively, are unchanged. We continue to recommend aggressive purchase of the shares. The background to the release of Kodak's letter to shareholders was that Mr. Whitmore wanted to communicate with investors about the current status of management's efforts to improve profitability and reduce debt. Therefore, the plan announced today is his plan and does not reflect the initiatives that might be taken by a new chairman and CEO. There were several elements of the plan, most important of which was that management estimated that free cash flow (excluding Eastman Chemical Company, to be spun off in early 1994) would approximate $2.6 billion 1993-1995. The company indicated that free cash flow in 1993 would total $700 million, $1.0 billion in 1994, and $1.1 billion in 1995. These three numbers actually total $2.8 billion rather than $2.6 billion. The difference is that the $700-million mistakenly included $200 million in excess cash flow from Eastman Chemical Company in 1993. In any case, the $2.6-billion figure is a sizable increase from the $1.0-billion estimate discussed earlier this year, which included Eastman Chemical Company. The bulk of the difference between these figures can be accounted for by a sharp reduction in capital expenditures. In 1992, Kodak spent $2.09 billion on capital expenditures versus $1.39 billion in depreciation. Over the last three years, Kodak's capital spending has outpaced depreciation by a wide margin, averaging $2.08 billion. This spending rate resulted in a 1990-1992 capital expenditure-to-depreciation ratio of 1.61 times. Management has indicated that capital spending will be reduced to match depreciation. Based on this reduction, excess cash flow generation will increase approximately $500 million per year 1993-1995. In the first half of 1993, capital expenditures declined 27%, which implies a full-year spending rate of $1.53 billion. A second element of the plan involved a 10,000 headcount reduction by the end of 1995. At the end of 1992, Kodak had 132,600 employees. Earlier this year, the company announced the termination of 2,000 employees in the imaging group. Of the remaining 130,600 employees, Eastman Chemical Company accounts for 18,000. The 10,000 headcount reduction announced by Mr. Whitmore refers to a 112,600 employee base excluding Eastman Chemical. It is clear that this 8.9% reduction in headcount over a two-and-a-half year period was not satisfactory to the board of directors because Mr. Whitmore indicated that the board believes that the company needs to "move faster and further on operating cost efficiencies," which is why he was asked to resign. The two final components of the plan were selling, administrative, distribution, and advertising (SADA) costs and research and development. In 1992, SADA equaled 29.1% of sales, with R&D at 7.2%. Mr. Whitmore stated that these expenses would be capped at 1992 levels of $5.86 billion and $1.58 billion, respectively. As sales grow, a capping in SADA and R&D would allow these expenditures to fall as a percent of sales. However, analysts believe that the board of directors insisted on more decisive action that would result in an actual drop in these spending levels. This would permit SADA and R&D to more quickly fall into line with the ratios of peer group companies. As we have discussed in the past, there is significant earnings leverage available to Kodak if these costs drop as a percentage of sales. For example, each 100-basis-point reduction in SADA and R&D would contribute incremental earnings of approximately $0.35-$0.40 per share after tax. Assuming that SADA declines from 29.1% of sales in 1992 to 25.0% by 1995, earnings would benefit $1.40-$1.60 per share. Similarly, a 100-basis-point reduction in R&D spending from 7.2% of sales in 1992 to 6.2% by 1995 would increase earnings an additional $0.35-$0.40 after tax.