Document 0099
 DOCN  M9480099
 TI    The impact of lengthening AIDS reporting delays and uncertainty about
       underreporting on incidence trends and projections.
 DT    9410
 AU    Bacchetti P; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University
       of; California, San Francisco 94143-0840.
 SO    J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 1994 Aug;7(8):860-5. Unique Identifier :
       AIDSLINE MED/94293168
 AB    This article extends existing methods for estimating reporting delays to
       allow nonparametric estimation of how delays are changing over time.
       Also implemented are refinements to estimate calendar month effects and
       to improve the accuracy of trend estimates by focusing on delays of > 6
       months. Applying the method to 1987-definition adult and adolescent AIDS
       cases reported by June 1992 shows strong evidence for a nonlinear trend
       toward longer delays among cases diagnosed more recently and for slower
       reporting of cases diagnosed in January and June of each year. Combining
       estimated reporting delay corrections with the possibility of increasing
       underreporting produces a 14-16% higher estimated incidence by December
       1991 and a 19-24% higher projected incidence by December 1993 than using
       the delay corrections provided with the public information AIDS data and
       assuming constant underreporting rates.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY  Adolescence  Adult
       *Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.)  Epidemiology/*TRENDS
       *Forecasting  Human  Incidence  *Population Surveillance  Support, U.S.
       Gov't, P.H.S.  Time Factors  United States/EPIDEMIOLOGY  JOURNAL ARTICLE

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
       protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).