Document 0101
 DOCN  M9480101
 TI    Is HIV-1 likely to become a leading cause of adult mortality in
       sub-Saharan Africa?
 DT    9410
 AU    Gregson S; Garnett GP; Anderson RM; Department of Zoology, University of
       Oxford, United Kingdom.
 SO    J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 1994 Aug;7(8):839-52. Unique Identifier :
       AIDSLINE MED/94293166
 AB    Concerns are sometimes expressed at the extent to which HIV-1 is
       prioritized within international and national health budgets and as a
       research issue, on the grounds that much larger numbers of people in
       developing countries currently die from other diseases, such as malaria
       and tuberculosis. We use a previously described mathematical model to
       explore how the HIV-1 epidemic could develop within a sub-Saharan
       African context and investigate the trends and patterns of adult
       mortality which could follow. Two contrasting scenarios are studied, one
       which turns population growth rates negative and another which does not.
       In both cases, HIV-1-related disease accounts for over 75% of annual
       deaths among men and women aged 15-60 years by year 25 of the epidemic.
       Relatively little change in mortality is seen in the early years of the
       simulated epidemics. However, by year 15, expectation of life at age 15
       has fallen from 50 to below 30 years. The fragmentary evidence now
       available from empirical studies supports the impression that HIV-1 is
       rapidly emerging as a leading cause of adult deaths in areas of
       sub-Saharan Africa. Observed patterns of age-dependent mortality reflect
       those projected in the model simulations.
 DE    Adolescence  Adult  Africa South of the Sahara/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Age Factors
       Birth Rate  *Computer Simulation  *Disease Outbreaks  Female  Human  HIV
       Infections/EPIDEMIOLOGY/*MORTALITY/TRANSMISSION  *HIV-1  Life Expectancy
       Male  Middle Age  *Models, Biological  Population Density  Population
       Growth  Prevalence  Probability  Sex Behavior  Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
       Time Factors  JOURNAL ARTICLE

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