Document 2720
 DOCN  M94A2720
 TI    Projections of the AIDS epidemic in the Dominican Republic.
 DT    9412
 AU    Gomez E; Sweat M; Arbaje M; Butler de Lister M; SESPAS/PROCETS,
       Dominican Ministry of Health, Santo Domingo.
 SO    Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):24 (abstract no. 071C). Unique
       Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94369855
 AB    OBJECTIVE: To project a scenario of the number of HIV infections, AIDS
       deaths, and related impacts of AIDS in the Dominican Republic (DR)
       through the year 2000. METHODS: The future impact of the AIDS epidemic
       was derived from three models (Epimodel, Demproj, AIM). HIV prevalence
       estimates from national sentinel surveillance studies were fitted to a
       hypothetical curve to generate future prevalence estimates. These were
       combined with demographic projections to develop population specific HIV
       and AIDS estimates. ASSUMPTIONS: HIV prevalence in 1991 was 15% among
       homosexual men, 3.5% among CSWs, 0.7% among prenatal women, and 0.9%
       among sexually active adult heterosexuals, ages 18-46. Up to 15% of the
       adult Dominican population is assumed to be at enhanced risk for
       acquiring HIV through sexual contact. The scenario presented here
       assumes HIV prevalence growing to 5% of the adult population by year
       2000. RESULTS: If adult HIV prevalence reaches 5% by 2000: (1) over
       300,000 Dominicans will be HIV infected; (2) there will be 17,600 AIDS
       deaths per year; (3) over 55,000 orphans will survive mothers who have
       died of AIDS; (4) child mortality will rise from 55 to 80 deaths per
       1000; (5) and 14,000 additional cases of TB will result from associated
       HIV infection. CONCLUSIONS: Aggressive multi-sectorial prevention
       programs backed by supportive policies are needed in the DR to slow HIV
       transmission and mitigate the potential health, social, and economic
       impact of AIDS.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/MORTALITY/
       TRANSMISSION  Adolescence  Child  Child, Preschool  Disease
       Outbreaks/PREVENTION & CONTROL  Dominican Republic/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Female
       Forecasting  Human  *HIV Seroprevalence  Infant  Male  Middle Age  Sex
       Behavior  MEETING ABSTRACT

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