Foreign Correspondent Inside Track On World News By International Syndicated Columnist & Broadcaster Eric Margolis ,,ggddY"""Ybbgg,, ,agd888b,_ "Y8, ___`""Ybga, ,gdP""88888888baa,.""8b "888g, ,dP" ]888888888P' "Y `888Yb, ,dP" ,88888888P" db, "8P""Yb, ,8" ,888888888b, d8888a "8, ,8' d88888888888,88P"' a, `8, ,8' 88888888888888PP" "" `8, d' I88888888888P" `b 8 `8"88P""Y8P' 8 8 Y 8[ _ " 8 8 "Y8d8b "Y a 8 8 `""8d, __ 8 Y, `"8bd888b, ,P `8, ,d8888888baaa ,8' `8, 888888888888' ,8' `8a "8888888888I a8' `Yba `Y8888888P' adP' "Yba `888888P' adY" `"Yba, d8888P" ,adP"' `"Y8baa, ,d888P,ad8P"' ``""YYba8888P""'' The Road To Damascus Eric Margolis Dec 18/95 Israel and Syria, locked in combat like two desert scorpions, are currently involved in a series of intricate negotiations that may soon lead to an end of their half- century of bitter rivalry and fighting. This week, in a speech to the US Congress, Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres, the architect of the peace pact with the PLO, made an eloquent appeal to Syria. `We are all sons and daughters of Abraham,' said Peres, in the clearest asserion ever by an Israeli leader that Arabs and Jews are cousins. His words were aimed as much at American Jews, many of whom oppose any concessions to the Arabs, as Syria. Peres next exploded a bombshell by hinting that Israel might be prepared to swiftly vacate the portion of southern Lebanon it has occupied. Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, and return of the Golan Heights to Syria, are Damascus' two principal demands. Hafez Asad, Syria's wily, very tough leader, will find Peres' peace offensive increasingly hard to resist. Syria, with its satrapy, Lebanon, is the only Arab neighbor that has not so far made peace with Israel. The Soviet Union's collapse left Syria isolated, impoverished, and unable to acquire sufficient modern arms or spare parts to maintain its military confrontation with Israel. So far, the crux of Syrian-Israel rivalry has appeared to be the strategic Golan Heights. From their top, Israeli guns can shell Damascus; Syrian guns can hit much of northern Galilee. Israeli electronic warfare systems on the Heights peer deeply into Syria. Even so, the military utility of the Heights today is much less than in the past. During the 1973 War, for example, Syrian armored columns broke through Israeli defenses on Golan, but then halted before reaching the edge of the escarpment. The Syrian command feared advancing too close to Israel would provoke an Israeli riposte with nuclear weapons - which were, in fact, being deployed for action against Syrian and Egyptian forces. Golan, and southern Lebanon, are tactical issues. Israel would be well rid of its self-proclaimed `Security Zone' in southern Lebanon. This, the last vestige of Israel's ill- fated attempt to turn Lebanon into a protectorate, became an `insecurity zone.' Ironically, Israel's occupation of Lebanon created and fuelled the ferocious Hizbullah guerrillas, who have become its most deadly and successful enemy. Far more important than these tactical concerns is the strategic struggle between Israel and Syria. Israel has long seen itself as regional superpower - which it certainly is - whose sphere of influence includes Palestinians, Jordan and Lebanon. Syria is the only Arab state now capable of offering serious military resistance to Israeli regional ambitions. Egypt, the other Arab power, is so dependent on US aid that its political and military capabilities have been negated. Syria views itself as rightful master of the entire Levant. Syria's historic claims to the region pre-date those of Israel, and have continued almost to the present day. Damascus, to Syrians, is the center of the Arab World, and legitimate ruler of all Palestine and Jordan. Syria has never accepted the independence of Lebanon, which was detached from Syria by France, in the 1920's. Israel and Syria have fought since 1980 for control of Lebanon and sparred over Jordan. Syria's President Asad eventually defeated the Israelis in Lebanon, in spite of their powerful backing by Washington. Lebanon was a remarkably dirty war in which both sides resorted to terror, assassination, and scorched earth. In the end, Asad's diplomatic skills, ruthlessness and iron nerves prevailed. Asad still is trying to wrest leadership of the Palestinians from Yasser Arafat, and hand it to tame, pro-Syrian Palestinians in Damascus. He is warily watching bitter foe, Saddam Hussein, and, of course, the Clinton Administration, whose Mideast policy, in Syria's view, is entirely shaped by Israel's American supporters. President Asad hesitates to make peace because the major disputes between Israel and the PLO remain unresolved: Jerusalem, final borders of the Palestinian `entity;' its future statehood; return of Arab refugees; Jewish settlements; and water rights. A peace deal between Israel and Syria prior to resolution of the above issues will leave the Palestinians isolated and in a position of maximum weakness. And things could still go terribly wrong between Israel and the Palestinians. Ever-cautious Asad wants more assurances before he moves. Influential elements within Israel's powerful military- industrial-security complex strongly oppose peace with Syria. Some ultras urge Israel deliver a smashing military blow to fragment fragile Syria into Druze, Alawite and Sunni mini-states. This, reckons Israel's right, will produce a Levant in which Israel rules the roost. Senior officers of Syria's military and security apparatus also oppose a peace, fearing loss of influence and perks. Nevertheless, Shimon Peres is pressing relentlessly ahead. Wrongly branded in the past as weak and indecisive, Peres has revealed himself to be the most courageous and forward- thinking of Israel's modern leaders, including the late Yitzhak Rabin. Equally important, Peres is fast gaining the trust of Palestinians and Israel's Arab neighbors. He is a leader with whom Hafez Asad can deal, both intellectually and emotionally. The question now: which of these two old foes will drop his guard the first? ********************************************************* --------------------------------------------------------------- To receive Foreign Correspondent via email send a note to Majordomo@lglobal.com with the message in the body: subscribe foreignc To get off the list, send to the same address but write: unsubscribe foreignc Back Issues can be obtained from: ftp.lglobal.com/pub/foreignc For Syndication Information please contact: Email: emargolis@lglobal.com FAX: (416) 960-4803 Smail: Eric Margolis c/o Editorial Department The Toronto Sun 333 King St. East Toronto Ontario Canada M5A 3X5 ---------------------------------------------------------------