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For information on receiving a free trial subscription to INEWS World News Daily via E-mail send E-mail to INEWS@AOL.COM WORLD WIDE WEB: http://members.aol.com/inewscirc/inews.html ================================================================== DISTRIBUTE FREELY '96 ELECTION SNAPSHOT VOL.1 #16 SUBSCRIPTION INFO/GENERAL INFO - INEWS@AOL.COM TO REACH EDITOR ---------------- INEWSEDIT@AOL.COM CONTENTS: CAMPAIGN '96 STATUS REPORT CLINTON WHITEWATER ASSOCIATES CONVICTION DAMAGE CONTROL CAMPAIGN U.S. OPINION ROUNDUP: THE WHITEWATER VERDICT WHITEWATER SPILLOVER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO CROATIA DEFENDS IRANIAN ARMS TO BOSNIA HOUSE PUTS OFF TRAVELGATE CONTEMPT VOTE WHITEWATER TRIAL RESULTS WILL BE REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN ISSUE TRADE: DOLE, CLINTON DIFFERENCES MORE NUANCE THAN SUBSTANCE AFRICAN AMERICANS BECOMING MORE CONSERVATIVE, STUDY SHOWS BESHEAR WINS DEMOCRATIC SENATE NOMINATION IN KENTUCKY SUPREME COURT TO DECIDE MULTIPLE PARTY NOMINATION CASE HISPANICS MAY VOTE DEMOCRATIC TO PROTEST IMMIGRANT BASHING CAMPAIGN TRAIL TIDBITS: JOURNALISTIC JUXTAPOSITIONS PUNDIT'S PEARLS EDITORIAL EXCERPTS CLINTON RESPONSE TO ARKANSAS "WHITEWATER" TRIAL CLINTON ATTEMPTS TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH THE MILITARY CLINTON ACCUSED OF "STEALING" DOLE'S CAMPAIGN ISSUES ATTENTION IN ARKANSAS PRIMARY FOCUSES ON U.S. SENATE RACE REPORTS CONFLICT ON LENGTH OF SERVICE FOR DOLE SUCCESSOR DOLE WELFARE REFORM PROMISES DOLE SAYS SENATE WILL VOTE AGAIN ON BALANCED BUDGET AMENDMENT CLINTON ADMINISTRATION ON SAME-SEX MARRIAGE DOLE SAYS HE WOULD END CASTRO'S REIGN IN CUBA POLITICIANS LAY-OUT POSITIONS FOR NOVEMBER ELECTIONS WORLD PRESS: U.S. POLITICS WORLD PRESS: DOLE RESIGNATION: 'STROKE OF GENIUS OR DESPERATE ACT'? FREE OFFER FROM PUBLISHER ========================= --------------- CAMPAIGN '96 STATUS REPORT JIM MALONE WASHINGTON The potential political fallout from the Whitewater affair involving the president and Mrs. Clinton's business dealings in Arkansas is dominating U.S. political news this week. The guilty verdicts delivered in an Arkansas courtroom against (Arkansas) Governor Jim guy tucker and former Clinton business partners Jim and Susan McDougal are already having a political impact in Washington. For the first time in weeks the White House is having to deal with some bad political news. The Whitewater affair, which involves allegations of improper financial activities in Arkansas before Bill Clinton became president, continues to cast a shadow over his re-election hopes. In fact, Republicans are eager to make it a major issue in the presidential election campaign. Fred Barnes is the editor of the weekly standard magazine. He says this week's fraud and conspiracy convictions in Arkansas give new momentum to the Whitewater investigations being conducted by independent counsel Kenneth Starr and separate committees in the House and Senate: "But if there are hearings (on Whitewater) which all of a sudden get press attention in Washington in a way that Senator D'Amato's hearings (senate Whitewater committee) did not in the past. And if there is a trial in Arkansas that is involved directly with allegations (of illegal contributions to) a Clinton campaign (while he was governor). You remember that the trial just completed in Little Rock was not directly about Bill Clinton. If you have those things and the press finally decides that this is a big issue, then the public may sit up and take notice." The Senate Whitewater committee is expected to wrap up its probe next month and issue a report which could be highly critical of the White House. In addition, another trial will begin in Arkansas next month involving two men accused of diverting bank funds to then-Governor Bill Clinton's re-election campaign in 1990 and hiding the transactions from bank regulators. But most analysts believe in the absence of any new serious allegations of wrongdoing by the president or first lady, the Whitewater affair will not do any major political damage to the administration. But many political analysts also believe it will remain an issue in the presidential campaign. Alan Lichtman is a professor of government at the American University in Washington. He says the uncertainty about where the Whitewater investigation is headed now is a source of concern for some of the president's supporters in the Democratic Party: "Based on the situation in the country, foreign policy, relative tranquility at home, a good economy, bill Clinton is going to win this presidential election. The last thing he needs if for serious charges to be leveled by a newly prestigious special prosecutor against himself or Hillary Clinton. I still think that an indictment of the president or an indictment of Hillary Clinton is most unlikely. But if there is a trail to be pursued, I think the special prosecutor, who remember whatever his role now, was a highly partisan Republican, will be emboldened to follow that trail." White House aides went to great lengths this past week to point out the president was not directly involved in the fraud and conspiracy case against the McDougals and Governor Tucker. The president did give videotaped testimony on behalf of the defense in the case and White House aides were also eager to point out the vast majority of jurors in the case said they found his testimony was credible, though not crucial to their verdicts. --------------- --------------- CLINTON WHITEWATER ASSOCIATES CONVICTION DAMAGE CONTROL CAMPAIGN DAVID BORGIDA WHITE HOUSE The Clinton White House is in the process of trying to limit any political damage to the president's re-election bid following the felony convictions Tuesday of two former business associates in the failed 1980's Whitewater land deal. Arkansas Governor Jim Guy Tucker, also convicted in the case, has announced he will resign by July fifteenth. Not long after the verdicts were announced in a little rock, Arkansas, courtroom Tuesday, the president appeared before reporters here to say he felt badly for those convicted of fraud and conspiracy but that he wants to move ahead. Wednesday, he said nothing publicly about the case, and his spokesman, Mike McCurry, was unusually succinct in answering reporter's questions. Mr. McCurry did make the case that the president was never charged with any wrongdoing, that he was simply a defense witness, and that some jurors in the case found the president's videotaped testimony credible. Officials here even released to reporters some of the public comments jurors had already made. But during his daily briefing, spokesman McCurry was limiting his commentary. What about a Republican charge the verdicts reflect a cover-up of possible presidential wrongdoing?: "It's not surprising that some Republicans are attempting to make partisan political gain out of the jury verdict." And he was asked, did the president talk to anyone at the White House about the verdicts, his attorneys, for example. No, said Mr. McCurry, the president did not talk to anyone here about it. He was too busy. But Mr. McCurry did note the president spoke late Tuesday with governor tucker. Why? He was asked: "The president thought it would be appropriate to give him a call." The two have been friends, said Mr. McCurry, and the president wanted to say he was sorry about the verdicts and that the governor decided to resign. Mr. Tucker succeeded Bill Clinton as Arkansas governor. Mr. McCurry was at his most restrained Wednesday when asked: What is your assessment of what political impact this will have? Answer, "I don't have one" Before the verdicts were made public Tuesday, the Clinton White House was confident it had put the Whitewater issue to rest. The president and first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton have denied any wrongdoing and no documents have surfaced to contradict that. They have said the land deal was a failed investment, and nothing else. But now, with Whitewater independent counsel Kenneth Starr vowing to move forward with his investigation, and the president to testify in another case next month that involves funding of his 1990 gubernatorial campaign, the so-called "character" issue that Republicans have highlighted could once again hover over the president's re-election bid. President Clinton's re-election campaign is going well, he is well ahead of presumptive Republican nominee Bob Dole in public opinion polls. Clinton officials are clearly determined to stop the character issue from gaining any momentum with the August National Party political conventions approaching. --------------- --------------- U.S. OPINION ROUNDUP: THE WHITEWATER VERDICT ANDREW N. GUTHRIE WASHINGTON President Bill Clinton is considered by some U.S. news media to be politically wounded by the first convictions of anyone involved in the Whitewater affair. The question in many editorials is "how much?" On Tuesday, a federal jury reached a verdict of guilty on numerous counts of fraud and other crimes against the sitting governor of Arkansas, Jim guy Tucker, an ally of the president's, and Mr. Clinton's two former Little Rock, business partners, James McDougal and his ex-wife, susan. Mr. McDougal owned the now-defunct, and much-investigated Madison guaranty savings and loan, which is thought to have improperly loaned money to one of Mr. Clinton's campaigns for governor. The savings and loan also was involved in financing the ill-fated real estate development that has come to be known as Whitewater, and has expanded to include a list of alleged misdeeds by Clinton associates. The convictions of Governor Tucker, the politician who replaced Mr. Clinton as Arkansas's chief executive, and the McDougals, long-time family friends of Bill and Hillary Clinton and former financial partners, have been the week's top editorial fixture. The defendants were found guilty of a total of 24 counts of conspiracy and various kinds of fraud in connection with financial dealings that did not directly affect the president. Mr. Clinton was called to testify in the trial to aid the McDougal's defense, and did so with videotaped testimony. It was photographed in Washington, and so far, not released to the public. Most papers agree that this first Whitewater conviction has damaged the president's credibility, although he was never charged with any misdeed. But various papers disagree as to how the trial's outcome will affect his re-election chances. The Chicago Tribune, which has some concerns about the source of this week's convictions, the special prosecutor: "Just when it looked like he was out of the rapids, bill Clinton suddenly is back up to his political neck in Whitewater. The convictions of his former Whitewater partners have given new life to what had seemed a dying issue. Whether or not the investigation ultimately implicates the president, it most assuredly will dog ["follow" or possibly, "hinder"] his campaign for re-election whether Whitewater, stemming from events that occurred long before bill Clinton became president, is the sort of case that merits an independent counsel [independent from the U.S. Justice Department, but with FBI support and subpoena power] is a question that continues to trouble us. that extraordinary measure ought to be reserved for extraordinary cases, those in which the constitutional order is threatened by executive wrongdoing." Turning to another Midwestern daily, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, warns its readers not to draw unwarranted conclusions from the convictions, as the paper fears, many Republicans will attempt to do: "President Bill Clinton's enemies are trying mightily to make the guilty verdicts in Little Rock stick to him, but the facts don't support them. It may be that the Clintons broke laws in the 1980s, when he was governor however, the guilty verdicts in little rock do not move the special prosecutor or the Senate Whitewater committee a single step closer to establishing either of those possibilities." In the southwest, Utah's Salt Lake [City] Tribune reacted to the verdicts with a question: "What should the American people conclude about their president from the guilty verdicts in the Whitewater case? Not much. Rather, they should await further developments in related investigations that bear directly on allegations of wrongdoing by president Clinton. Because of the trial's outcome, voters will hear a good deal more about Whitewater during the presidential campaign. It remains an open question, however, whether Bill Clinton is himself guilty of any illegal activity that would call into question his fitness to serve another four years." Nearby, the Arizona Daily Star in Tucson, says the issue of the president's character is now a central question before the electorate: "The issue of Bill Clinton's character returns with a vengeance [literally with a great deal of force] after an Arkansas jury convicted his former associates on 24 felonies. His enemies will milk [extract all possible value from] this to the maximum, as Democrats would do if Bob Dole were even peripherally associated with a corrupt scheme. When Bill Clinton ran for office, he faced significant questions about his character... Now the voters have a full presidential term by which to judge [Mr.] Clinton. Independent counsel Kenneth Starr still hasn't produced evidence of Clinton wrongdoing, nor has he filed any charges against [the president]." In Northern California, the San Francisco Chronicle says in part: "The conclusion of the trial marks the beginning of what is likely to be an extended season of grief for [Mr.] Clinton, his wife and former Arkansas allies. The Whitewater-related trials, hearings and probes are certain to keep the limelight on [president] Clinton and his character flaws through the November election. It looks like a long, hot summer for the Clintons." The city's other daily, the San Francisco examiner, suggests the verdicts: "...Carry two portents of trouble for the president. The verdicts give momentum to the wide-ranging investigation, and they suggest the jury didn't buy [believe] [president] Clinton's testimony as a star [important] witness for the defense." Lastly, from northern New England, the Portland [Maine] Press Herald warns readers, in part: "The verdicts, coming after eight days of jury deliberation, cannot be airily dismissed. The Clintons would be mistaken to try. Beyond the beltway [inside Washington] world of Republican charges and White House spin [favorable interpretation] exists a public impressed by [independent prosecutor] careful preparation of fraud violations involving the three on trial. The special prosecutor should aggressively continue his 30-month-old investigation, wherever it leads." The Miami Herald reacts: "Putting its best spin [interpretation of the news] on a bad day for the president, the White House again is reminding everyone that he was only a witness, not a defendant. That is certainly true. But Whitewater, a moniker [nickname] no longer applied just to a real-estate development and banking scandal, roils anew. The Clintons have been soaked through and through with the mud of scandal. Some of it is sure to stick on election day." In Georgia, the Atlanta Constitution titles its lead Thursday editorial "Whitewater Swirls To Surface." The paper says the case has been so confusing, most people couldn't follow it, and paid little attention, until now: "...For those not predisposed to either love or hate the Clintons, it was impossible to reach a conclusion about the case based on the facts. It's now certain we won't have all the facts about the case by November, when voters will have to make a decision based in part on their assessment of the president's guilt or innocence. On June 17th, a trial begins in Little Rock involving allegations of campaign-related corruption that more directly involve [Mr.] Clinton. If [independent counsel Kenneth] Starr wins convictions in that case, the political damage to [president] Clinton may threaten his re-election. This week, Whitewater became an issue of pressing national importance." The Boston Globe warns readers: "[President] Clinton's tangential connection to the case imposes no conclusion about his character as a public official nor about the political effects of the disparate cases commonly linked under the rubric of Whitewater. But two pending cases have the potential to cause more direct political damage. He could be innocent of any crime and still be shown to have abused the power and influence of his positions as governor in Arkansas and president in Washington." The Philadelphia Inquirer adds that Tuesday's little rock verdict only means that: "It will require a lot more work by the special counsel to get at the truth regarding the Clintons' conduct in the Whitewater real-estate deal, the financing of Mr. Clinton's gubernatorial campaigns, and other matters." While on the west coast, Thursday's Los Angeles Times notes: "The Arkansas verdicts inevitably will cast a shadow over the president's campaign image. Certainly eager Republican campaign organizers intend to use Whitewater, whatever the president's involvement, as a vehicle for raising anew questions about his character and credibility. whether voters will begin paying closer attention probably depends on what substantive evidence [Mr.] Starr's dogged investigation is able to lay before the public." On Long Island, Newsday writes: "Whatever this [the convictions] might say about the McDougals, [james and susan, the Clinton's former business partners] it doesn't even rise to the level of a circumstantial case against bill and Hillary Rodham Clinton. But the political arena doesn't require real evidence to support an accusation; innuendo and speculation are often more than enough... That may not be fair, but it shouldn't surprise anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of American politics..." In its leadeditorial today, the Wall Street Journal has this comment about the trial: "As the Whitewater trial in Arkansas ran its lengthy course, we kept reading that it came down to the word of David hale, a convicted felon against Bill Clinton, president of the United States. The jury's verdict is now in: It believed Mr. Hale." The Wall Street Journal also calls for the Senate Whitewater committee to subpoena Mr. Hale as a witness and grant him complete immunity from prosecution for his testimony. The Washington Post takes a very different view of the verdict: "Plainly the shadow of this judgment falls beyond little rock. But it needs to be clearly understood that those who were found guilty of crimes were the defendants, and no one else: President Clinton was not on trial nor is it clear that in reaching their verdict the jurors paid particular heed to, or passed judgment on, the president's videotaped testimony....." The New York Times, is pleased that after three years of all manner of investigations, some answers are finally coming out of the Whitewater affair: "At last the whole affair is moving in the direction of clarity rather than further confusion. The voters will be able to sort out what they think of Mr. Clinton and the other players once the legal record is established through proper investigation public trial and reasoned verdict like that rendered yesterday by a jury that took its duties very seriously." In summing up, the Washington Times suggests: "...After dismissing the serious questions raised by their business, tax and political dealings as figments of the Republican imagination, and after trying to tar any and all questioners with a partisan brush, Bill and Hillary Clinton are faced with the plain and naked fact that their good friends and business partners, and one of their longtime political allies, have been found guilty of fraud and conspiracy. It just doesn't look good for the first couple." --------------- --------------- WHITEWATER SPILLOVER NEAL LAVON WASHINGTON The guilty verdicts Tuesday in the federal fraud and conspiracy trial in Arkansas have reverberated all the way to Washington, D.C. Two business associates of President Clinton and his successor as Arkansas governor could face prison terms of more than 100 years and fines of up to about five million dollars. But it is the effect of the verdicts on the 1996 presidential race that may be the most critical factor in yesterday's outcome. James McDougal, his ex-wife susan, and the current governor of Arkansas, Jim Guy Tucker, were all found guilty by an Arkansas jury of a total of 24 counts of fraud and conspiracy in a series of financial dealings involving loans and real estate transactions. One of the chief prosecution witnesses, a former judge and convicted felon named David hale, has placed President Clinton at the center of a conspiracy to defraud the U.S. government of $300,000 while serving as governor of Arkansas. The president, a witness for the defense in the trial, vehemently denies the charges. The verdicts were seen as vindication for special prosecutor Kenneth Starr who is investigating the complex web of real estate, financial and political developments which have come to be known as Whitewater. The name stems from the real estate project in Arkansas in which the McDougals and the Clintons were partners before the president won election to the White House in 1992. Mr. Starr, a Republican, was criticized by supporters of the president for conducting an investigation they felt was too partisan and rife with conflicts of interest. Most legal observers thought those criticisms would be silenced by Tuesday's verdict. Fred Barnes, executive editor of the Weekly Standard magazine, says the results in the trial mean that Whitewater will remain as an issue in the 1996 presidential election: "The White House had hoped that Whitewater would go away, would not be an issue. That the special prosecutor, Kenneth Starr, would be discredited by losing the case. Instead, he won three convictions and now there will be tremendous attention on the trial in a few weeks involving allegations that money was funneled illegally into Clinton's 1990 governor's campaign in Arkansas and then on further hearings in Congress. So this really does revive the issue and means that Whitewater will with us right through the presidential campaign and the presidential election in November." While the verdicts this week did not directly affect the president, what unfolds over the course of special prosecutor Starr's Whitewater investigation could impact on his chances for re-election. But Allan Lichtman, professor of history at the American University in Washington, says even if that happens, the president has shown a remarkable ability to bounce back from adversity: "Bill Clinton seems to prove the truth of what the poet Emily dickinson said, which is, 'a wounded deer leaps the highest'. Continually, Bill Clinton has shown that he can come back from adversity. And certainly, the wound suffered from just these verdicts alone, is far from a mortal wound. However, the special prosecutor, Kenneth Starr, could now be emboldened to try and inflict a mortal wound by going after the president or the first lady, if the evidence warrants it." Whitewater could become the major campaign issue, Professor Lichtman believes, if the investigation targets major figures in the Clinton Administration. But if not, he notes, Whitewater could fade away in the face of more pressing concerns: "People may not understand, and shouldn't even try, all the details of the so-called Whitewater affair. But they understand indictment, they understand fraud. And if this does move up the ladder (target high level officials), it will dominate the presidential campaign. It may not. It may not go any higher, in which case, it will be an issue like the Iran-Contra affair in 1988 that fades away." If the Republicans do choose to make Whitewater the principal issue in their presidential campaign, the Weekly Standard's Fred Barnes thinks that may not be enough to carry the party to victory in November: "The public now thinks that Whitewater is a minor issue that reflects badly on the president, but it's not something on which they want to decide the presidential campaign. "If the Republicans blow it out of proportion that could cause problems, particularly if the Dole campaign decides they want to rely entirely on the character issue and then not flesh out an agenda of issues on which they offer voters a better reason for not voting for Bill Clinton. So, if they rely too much on Whitewater, they're going to wind up having it backfire on them." The Whitewater investigation will continue with a trial next month of two Arkansas bankers accused of lying to obtain bank funds which then went to Governor Clinton's gubernatorial campaign, and trying to conceal money from the Internal Revenue Service, the federal government's tax collecting agency. --------------- --------------- U.S. AMBASSADOR TO CROATIA DEFENDS IRANIAN ARMS TO BOSNIA DAVID SWAN SENATE The U.S. ambassador to Croatia has defended Washington's decision to let Iranian weapons pass through Croatia to the Bosnian government. Among other things, the envoy says Iran has subsequently lost influence in the Balkans instead of gaining it. Echoing other officials, Ambassador Peter Galbraith told Congress the decision was not easy. He called Iran an international menace whose terrorists could have threatened his own mission in Zagreb. But the ambassador says there was no other way to keep Bosnian Serbs from taking more land and more cities, with heavy loss of life. He sought to counter charges the policy opened the door for Iran to move into the region: "It was the war, not the arms pipeline, that gave the Iranians the opportunity to fish in troubled Balkan waters." Mr. Galbraith says the pipeline did not start with the United States. When Croatian officials asked him about the matter, he replied he had no instructions and told them to pay attention to what he did not say, meaning Washington would not object. The Clinton Administration argues the plan succeeded. The ambassador says it had what he calls the perverse effect of shrinking Iranian influence in the long run: "It enabled the Bosnians to defend themselves, to survive, and then, in conjunction with the Croatians to roll back some of the Serb gains, thus paving the way to the Dayton (peace) agreements." But Republicans are unconvinced, saying Iran could and should have been kept out of the arms traffic. Congressman Henry Hyde quoted the State Department's own report on global terrorism: "Iran again was the most active state sponsor of terrorism in 1993 and was implicated in terrorist attacks in Italy, Turkey and Pakistan. Iran still surveills (spies on) U.S. missions and personnel. Tehran's policymakers view terrorism as a valid tool to accomplish their political objectives." The Republican-led Congress plans an extensive investigation of the matter. While they may not be able to change Bosnian policy, the opposition lawmakers are determined to put the issue under an election-year spotlight. --------------- --------------- HOUSE PUTS OFF TRAVELGATE CONTEMPT VOTE DAVID SWAN SENATE American lawmakers have put off a vote to hold the White House in contempt of Congress, in connection with the dispute called "Travelgate." The case involves the firing of several White House travel office employees by the Clinton Administration in 1993. The House of Representatives has at least temporarily put aside a criminal contempt citation against three current and former presidential aides. The action came after the White House turned over a box of documents on "Travelgate," along with a list of other papers being held back on the grounds they are privileged. Republican Congressman William Clinger, chairman of a House investigating committee, says this is a sign of progress: "Mr. Speaker, I would consider this the beginning of a victory for the House because it is, we are reasserting the rights of the House to have access to documents." Republicans charge the White House improperly fired the travel office staff, then tried to cover up the role of first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton. The administration maintains it did nothing wrong. The contempt resolution was not expected to put anyone in jail, but could have been politically damaging. The White House is already trying to cope with fallout from the Whitewater trial, in which three of the president's associates were convicted of fraud. --------------- --------------- WHITEWATER TRIAL RESULTS WILL BE REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN ISSUE By Stuart Gorin The Whitewater fraud-and-conspiracy trial in Arkansas is going to be an issue in the 1996 U.S. presidential race because those convicted May 28 are friends of President Clinton and the president appeared as a witness on their behalf. The jury found Arkansas Governor Jim Guy Tucker, who was Clinton's successor, and James and Susan McDougal guilty of bank and/or mail fraud in real estate development schemes that helped destroy a savings and loan association owned by McDougal. In the 1980s, the Clintons and the McDougals participated in a failed real estate development corporation called Whitewater, which was not part of this case but which has been under investigation for 30 months. Because of the association, the jury's decision exacerbates a continuing source of political embarrassment for the president. Clinton said after the results were announced that he felt "very sorry" for his friends but that the jury tried to make a good decision and "we should all accept that." During the trial, a prosecution witness testified that Clinton, who was then governor of Arkansas, asked him to approve an illegal loan to Susan McDougal and that part of it went into a Whitewater account. In videotaped testimony presented to the court, Clinton heatedly denied the charge. Noting that the verdicts by themselves do not redefine the presidential race, the Washington Post said they nevertheless "keep alive gnawing questions that have plagued Clinton since the Whitewater case first unfolded and provide Republicans with a fresh opportunity to press the public to make character and credibility central issues this fall." Republican activists said the decision would give a needed shot of adrenalin to Bob Dole's lackluster presidential campaign. Dole himself is not expected to say the word "Whitewater" while campaigning, but one of his advisers said "there will be plenty of other people around to do that" for him. According to political analyst Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia, the verdicts would have "little impact" on the campaign, however, because voters who will base their judgments on Clinton's Whitewater dealings are "already in the Republican camp." Sabato added, however, that the verdicts will "encourage" the media and the public to pay more attention to the further investigations of Whitewater. Attempting to show that the convictions did not damage Clinton, White House officials released quotes from jurors who said they found the president's testimony credible but irrelevant to the charges, and that their decision was based on other testimony and extensive documentation. But Clinton's political advisers conceded that the verdicts would be more fuel for the Republicans in their campaign to question the president's character. This was already underway as both sides recently unveiled new television ads focusing on the character issue. The Republicans' ad, issued by the Republican National Committee, accused Clinton of trying to avoid a sexual harassment lawsuit that has been filed against him by "claiming he is on active military duty." The Democratic ad, paid for by the Clinton-Gore reelection committee, called Dole a "quitter" for resigning from the Senate and leaving behind "the gridlock he helped to create." Last week, clashing over the abortion issue, Dole accused Clinton of "a lack of vision and moral direction" for his veto of the late-term abortion bill. The Democratic response was generated by a "rapid response" strategy. Even before Dole left the building where he made his remarks -- a hotel in Philadelphia -- the White House beeped reporters to react to the speech. And Clinton, saying he is "always a little skeptical when politicians piously proclaim their morality," charged that Dole is trying to divide Americans for political advantage. The Washington Post said the eruption of personal attacks "offered a clear signal to voters that the coming presidential campaign may turn out to be one of the nastiest and most negative in history." Added the Chicago Tribune, while each candidate "will try to claim the moral high ground" in the campaign, the "battle over values could nurture a climate in which a third-party candidate would flourish." This would be especially true, the newspaper said, "if voters are turned off by shrill, negative attacks of both major contenders." --------------- --------------- TRADE: DOLE, CLINTON DIFFERENCES MORE NUANCE THAN SUBSTANCE By Jon Schaffer Forget the recent Bob Dole presidential campaign rhetoric about President Clinton's failed trade policy in Asia, concerns over the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the North American Free Trade Agreement, say long-time trade analysts. "My guess is that if Dole is elected, he would probably follow many of the themes that Clinton has followed," says Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow with the Institute for International Economics. "It would be more a matter of nuances in timing and priorities rather than any change in direction." With Dole "you would not find much change with what I believe is the misguided drive of the United States in ever narrower, ever more precise, reciprocity," says Claude Barfield, resident scholar with the American Enterprise Institute. "What is new with Clinton is the policy imperative of results-oriented trade policy." "Bill Clinton and Bob Dole are both managed traders," says Edward Hudgins, director of regulatory studies at the conservative-leaning CATO Institute. "Bill Clinton would prefer to be a managed trader by getting together with other statists and divvying up the markets. Dole would probably be more of a unilaterally bad managed trader, where he would have the United States sort of strike out on its own." The three trade experts don't expect trade to be a major issue during the remaining five months of the presidential campaign. Both candidates supported the Uruguay Round global trade accord, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and most-favored-nation (MFN) trade treatment for China, they note. And both, at times, have supported voluntary agreements calling on specific nations to limit exports of specific goods to the United States. Both candidates like to beat up on Japanese trade policy because it plays to a U.S. domestic audience, the analysts say. With protectionists like failed presidential candidate Pat Buchanan in the Republican Party, says Hudgins, Dole may even be tougher on Japan because "these are the kinds of bones he is going to throw to those people." The analysts say that Clinton, during the campaign, is expected to come out charging on his trade accomplishments. He will point to NAFTA and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, and urge moving forward on the Free Trade Agreement with the Americas (FTAA) in 1997, they say. And Clinton will point to successes in opening markets abroad and on raising exports, which economists argue produce more stable and higher-paying jobs in the United States. Where Dole may try to distance himself from Clinton is by urging a wait-and-see attitude on many of these regional trade measures, they say. Dole "certainly wants to have more time to assess the impact," Hufbauer says. "So he would not be at this stage so enthusiastic about commending what has been achieved or going forward in the same direction that Clinton has said." Hufbauer also suggests that Dole might take a different regional focus than the president. Whereas the Clinton administration has taken a more cautious approach to a free trade agreement with Europe, Dole might seek to move more aggressively, Hufbauer says. Why Europe and not Asia or Latin America, he says, is that when one talks about going forward with the FTAA or APEC, it suggests linking the U.S. economy more closely with economies that generally have much lower wages than the United States. "And that creates a specter of fear, I would say an irrational fear," of job losses in the United States, he says. Barfield agrees that Dole's cautious approach to regional trade groups makes it unlikely that a Dole administration would produce any new trade initiatives during its first year. "I don't think Dole would pull us out of APEC or tell the South Americans we're not interested in free trade," Barfield says. "What he might do is slow down." Hudgins says that Dole can't afford to ignore Asia because of the sharp expansion of trade with the region. "Dole is going to be susceptible to business inputs and pressure and we have a lot of growing markets over there and a lot of business will be urging him to help out on the Pacific side and maybe even in this hemisphere," says Hudgins. Though differences in the candidates may not be great, Barfield says that differences between the parties they represent are significant. Despite the obviously protectionist rhetoric of Pat Buchanan, the Republican party "is a party for more open markets. It is much more internationalist economically," says Barfield. The Democratic Party, he says, is still dominated in the House of Representatives by Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt, a "neo-protectionist" who talks about trade sanctions against countries maintaining too large a trade surplus vis-a-vis the United States. But Barfield remains worried about Dole's "great mischief" with the World Trade Organization. Dole is threatening to block a bill implementing a global deal to limit shipbuilding subsidies unless the Senate approves his bill creating a commission to review WTO dispute panel decisions. Dole had first proposed the commission in 1994, demanding Clinton administration support for it in return for his support of the Uruguay Round accord. Whoever is president, pressure is building for a new global round of trade negotiations under the WTO, says Barfield. The Clinton administration has said that it doesn't want anything now to disturb its trade agenda and a new round is premature, says Barfield. "They think that they have a record that is easily defendable and that Dole doesn't have any major openings and I think they are right." --------------- --------------- AFRICAN AMERICANS BECOMING MORE CONSERVATIVE, STUDY SHOWS By David Pitts Polling in recent years indicates a trend toward conservative viewpoints among African Americans. But it is not yet clear whether changing attitudes will translate into a more conservative voting pattern that could benefit the Republican Party, experts say. African Americans have voted for the Democratic Party in overwhelming numbers since 1936 when Franklin Delano Roosevelt was re-elected president in a landslide. Before Roosevelt, blacks voted primarily for the Republican Party because President Abraham Lincoln, who freed the slaves, was a Republican. The announcement by Colin Powell, the widely-respected former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the first African American to hold that post, that he is a Republican, has given added respect to the idea of blacks voting Republican, according to some observers, as has the presidential candidacy of Alan Keyes, an African American former statesman. In addition, observers point to the increasing salience of conservative ideas in the black community. African-American conservative commentators and thinkers, such as Shelby Steele and Thomas Sowell, have been gaining influence in recent years and their ideas have been the subject of considerable debate. Black conservative organizations aligned with the Republican Party also have sprouted, the most recent of which is BAMPAC, a political action committee (PAC). It has raised almost one million dollars in behalf of African American conservative candidates, according to the New York Times. BAMPAC was created by Keyes and was a leading contributor to the campaign of J.C. Watts, an African-American Republican who won a seat in Congress from Oklahoma in 1994 and who has become a leading spokesman for black conservatives. There is currently only one other black Republican in Congress, Gary Franks, of Connecticut, also a conservative. Conservative black candidates also are contacting the black business community directly, which, according to Watts and others, has been untapped until recently. "It definitely needs to be explored," says Watts. However, black businesses run the gamut from those with conservative leanings to those which support liberal causes. There may be enough money for both sides of the black political spectrum, according to David Bositis, senior political researcher at the Joint Center for Political Studies, the nation's leading African-American think tank. Bositis conducted a study three years ago, which is widely credited with discovering a growing conservative trend in attitudes among black voters. He says his study, which was co-sponsored by the Joint Center and Home Box Office, revealed that as many as one-third of African Americans now identify themselves as conservatives, contrary to the conventional wisdom that almost all blacks are liberal. Polling since then has found a similar trend. Bositis cautions, however, that the data can be misleading. "First, voters are quite capable of holding both liberal and conservative attitudes, depending on the issue," Bositis remarks. "The fact that one-third of blacks identify themselves as conservative does not mean they are conservative on all issues. In fact, a breakdown of the data indicates that, on most issues, even blacks who identify themselves as conservatives are, in fact, still mostly liberal," he adds. In addition, Bositis says that attitudes don't automatically "translate into voting behavior. An individual may identify himself as conservative, but vote for a liberal candidate. Clearly, one-third of blacks are not voting conservative, even though they say they are conservative." Results in recent elections support Bositis' conclusions. In presidential elections, African Americans have consistently and overwhelmingly voted for the more liberal candidate -- in all cases, in recent history, the Democratic candidate. The Congressional Research Service, an arm of the Library of Congress, reports that in 1976, 83 percent of blacks voted for Jimmy Carter over Gerald Ford; in 1980, 83 percent of blacks voted for Jimmy Carter over Ronald Reagan; in 1984, 91 percent of blacks voted for Walter Mondale over Ronald Reagan; in 1988, 89 percent of blacks voted for Michael Dukakis over George Bush; and, in 1992, 83 percent of blacks voted for Bill Clinton over George Bush, despite a concerted Republican Party campaign, led by then Republican National Chairman Lee Atwater, to attract more black voters. Bositis and other polling experts see no trend at the present time away from preponderant support by African Americans for the Democratic Party, despite indications of more conservative views. That could change, however, depending on political developments. For example, if Senator Bob Dole offers the Republican vice presidential nomination to Colin Powell and he convinces the general to accept it, polls show the number of African Americans willing to vote for the Republican ticket increases markedly, although a majority still indicate they would vote for the Democratic presidential nominee. --------------- --------------- BESHEAR WINS DEMOCRATIC SENATE NOMINATION IN KENTUCKY Steve Beshear, a former lieutenant governor of Kentucky, easily won the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate in the state's primary May 28. With nearly all precincts reporting, Beshear had 66 percent of the vote in a race in which he faced two opponents. He will run against incumbent U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell, a Republican, in the November general election. McConnell, who got 88 percent of the vote in the Republican primary, faced only token opposition. McConnell is seeking a third term in the U.S. Senate. In the Idaho primary, Senator Larry Craig, a Republican, was unopposed, as was his challenger, Boise businessman Walt Minnick, a Democrat. The news in the presidential primaries in the two states was no news. Once again, President Clinton and Senator Dole won easily. There was some marginal interest in the Republican presidential primary, however, since Dole still faces a challenge from Patrick Buchanan even though Dole has enough votes to win his party's presidential nomination. In Kentucky, with almost all precincts reporting, Dole won 74 percent of the vote to Buchanan's 8 percent. Dole picked up all 26 Republican convention delegates. In Idaho, with 24 percent of the precincts reporting, Dole had 63 percent of the vote and Buchanan 22 percent. A total of 23 Republican delegates are at stake there. On June 4, New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana and Alabama hold primary elections. --------------- --------------- SUPREME COURT TO DECIDE MULTIPLE PARTY NOMINATION CASE The Supreme Court on May 28 agreed to decide whether states may bar candidates from running for office under the banner of more than one political party. Most states, but not all, ban multiple-party nominations. For example, in New York during the 1980 presidential election, Democrat Jimmy Carter got more votes than Republican Ronald Reagan. But Reagan won the state because he also was the Conservative Party's nominee and obtained additional votes because of that second nomination. At issue is whether this causes confusion among voters. The justices said they would review a federal appeals court ruling that struck down Minnesota laws as violations of a minor party's freedom of association. The case arose in 1994 when the Twin Cities Area New Party, a minor political party, decided to nominate Andy Dawkins as its candidate for a seat in the state's House of Representatives. Dawkins, who already was the candidate of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, accepted both parties' nominations. Neither party objected. But the state laws banning the appearance of any candidate twice on the same ballot were invoked. The New Party sued. A federal judge upheld the state laws, but a federal appeals court reversed the ruling. --------------- --------------- HISPANICS MAY VOTE DEMOCRATIC TO PROTEST IMMIGRANT BASHING By Eric Green Continued anti-immigrant rhetoric by Republican political candidates and elected officials may drive the Hispanic vote in the 1996 U.S. elections into the Democratic Party column, according to an expert on Hispanic politics and demographics. Harry Pachon told a May 29 briefing at the U.S. Information Agency's Foreign Press Center that the gains Republicans have made in recent years in capturing Hispanic votes may be lost if they espouse policies such as excluding children of Hispanic illegal aliens from the public school system. Pachon, of the Tomas Rivas Center, a California-based research center, noted that Hispanics are expected to be the largest minority population in the United States by 2005. Although Hispanics are certainly not a homogeneous voting bloc on many issues, he said, surveys have found nearly unanimous agreement among them that immigrants should receive the same services from the government as other U.S. citizens. For instance, Pachon said, surveys found that 70 percent of all Hispanics believe that illegal aliens who pay taxes should receive governmental services. The survey results have enormous political implications in states like California, which has 54 of the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the presidential election. Nearly one-quarter of the state's population is Hispanic, Pachon said, and if they become energized to vote as a bloc for one party over another, it could decide who wins the presidency. Such issues in California that might put Hispanics into the Democratic column, he said, include a measure to deny certain state benefits to illegal aliens, such as receiving non-emergency hospital care. Another measure in California, Pachon said, would force children of illegal aliens to be barred from attending public schools. Survey results indicate, Pachon said, that Hispanics are not "willing to believe the rhetoric coming from Washington, and from certain state capitals and certain politicians, that paint immigrants with one brushstroke" as being a drain on American society. Hispanics, he said, closely identify with the human rights concerns of immigrants, such as being unable to find good jobs, the lack of educational opportunities, and in general, discrimination based on "looking Hispanic." Pachon said the Hispanic vote will have a major impact on the 1996 presidential election "if it is a close election." In that case, he added, California and Texas will be the two key states. Texas has 32 electoral votes and 25.5 percent of its population is Hispanic. Hispanics have made a significant impact on previous presidential elections dating as far back as 1968, Pachon said, when the Hispanic vote for Hubert Humphrey allowed the Democrat to carry Texas, although Humphrey ended up narrowly losing nationwide to Republican Richard M. Nixon. Pachon said the Hispanic vote may have proved the difference in California's 1994 Senate election in helping Democrat Dianne Feinstein eke out a win over Republican Michael Huffington, a race where both candidates spent more than $30 million for the 10 million votes at stake. Florida, where 12.2 percent of the population is Hispanic, is another state where the Hispanic vote will play an important role. Florida is the state with the second largest percentage increase in Hispanic population from 1980 to 1990, up 83.4 percent in those 10 years. Massachusetts had the largest increase in Hispanics, up 103.9 percent, although only 4.8 percent of the state's population is Hispanic. Pachon said the large Cuban-American population in Miami has voted Republican since the 1960s because Florida's Democratic Party of that time was more in tune with other old-line anti-immigrant southern states that shut Cubans out of their party. Another factor was disappointment with the Democratic administration of President John F. Kennedy, which was in office during the ill-fated Bay of Pigs invasion of 1961. Cubans felt Kennedy had let them down, Pachon said, and formed a Cuban-American organization to support the ultimately unsuccessful presidential bid of Republican Barry Goldwater in 1964 against Democrat Lyndon Johnson. --------------- --------------- CAMPAIGN TRAIL TIDBITS: -- Campaign giving proposal: Former Tennessee Governor and presidential candidate Lamar Alexander says federal election laws that limit campaign contributions to $1,000 per individual are "unfair" and should be eliminated. The problem, he told a recent audience at a Heritage Foundation lecture, is that tight limits require candidates to spend too much time raising money and not enough time campaigning and getting their message out to the voters. The result, he points out, is that incumbents and those who are rich enough to finance their own campaigns have a major advantage. The original law, he says, was intended to create equality among the candidates, but the reverse has occurred. Alexander's term for this situation is "the law of unintended consequences." -- Advice for Dole: Author Richard Ben Cramer, who has written several books on politics, including a recent one on Senator Bob Dole, says the outgoing majority leader is trailing in the polls to President Clinton because he hasn't been able to tell his story to the American people. Cramer says Dole doesn't need a "long laundry list of issues" but just has to have a couple of ideas to run an effective campaign -- ideas that come from his past. If Dole relates the issue of budget and debt to the hardship he and his family suffered while he was growing up in Russell, Kansas, Cramer says, "people will understand." Cramer's other points, discussed during a recent briefing at the American Enterprise Institute, are that "everybody's included" in the campaign, not just proponents of single issues, and that Dole should stress that while government should do fewer things for its citizens, those it does do should be done excellently. -- Forbes to Advise Dole: Presumed Republican presidential nominee Bob Dole says his former rival Steve Forbes will help advise him on the development of a pro-growth economic plan, but that he was not committed at this point to a particular tax package. During his own presidential campaign, Forbes advocated a flat tax for all citizens. Following a meeting between the two men last week, Dole praised Forbes for developing "an economic message that resonated with voters." -- Search for Dole Running Mate: Intensifying his search for a vice presidential running mate, Bob Dole has asked attorney and former diplomat Robert Ellsworth, a long-time friend from Kansas, to oversee the initial selection process. Dole campaign officials said that despite media reports of a "list" of possible names, there is none and the search remains wide open. -- Replacing Dole: Kansas Governor Bill Graves has named Lieutenant Governor Sheila Frahm, who is considered a political moderate, to replace Bob Dole in the Senate immediately after his June resignation. Frahm will hold the seat the rest of the year, but will have to win the August 6 Kansas Republican primary and the November 5 general election to serve the final two years of Dole's term. Frahm previously was the first woman majority leader in the Kansas state Senate. She will have party opposition, however. Republican Congressman Sam Brownback, a conservative, is the first challenger to declare his candidacy for the primary. -- National Tally: Unofficial returns from all state Republican primary elections held through May 21 show that Bob Dole received 7.5 million votes from among 13 million cast. The unofficial tally, reported by Congressional Quarterly magazine, shows Dole with 1,283 national convention delegates, more than enough needed for nomination. There are 109 delegates committed to Pat Buchanan and 136 who are uncommitted. -- Dole Campaigning: Campaigning in Florida last week, Republican hopeful Bob Dole promised a predominantly Cuban-American audience that if he is elected president, Cuban leader Fidel Castro's "house of cards" would tumble. Dole did not offer any specific plans, but said President Clinton would "rather sacrifice U.S. interests than risk offending a Cuban dictator." At the White House, spokesman Mike McCurry said Dole needs to clarify "whether he was planning armed invasion or continuation of the policies that the president supported" concerning Cuba. -- Dole Campaign Spending: Presidential candidates who use federal matching funds are limited to $37 million prior to the national nominating conventions, and Republican Bob Dole's campaign has only $177,000 left, according to the most recent filing with the Federal Election Commission. Dole campaign officials say his travel until the August convention will be almost exclusively to state and local fund raising events so his expenses can be paid by groups at those levels. -- Political Party Spending: The Federal Election Commission reports that in the 15 month period ending April 1, the Republican National Committee raised $135 million and spent $118 million, primarily on campaign advertising, while the Democratic National Committee raised $73 million and spent $67 million. -- "Soft Money" Donations: While U.S. campaign finance laws limit the amount of funds that individuals and organizations may legally contribute to a specific campaign, there is no such restriction placed on gifts to political parties. These donations, known as "soft money," are given by corporations, unions and wealthy people in efforts to influence individual campaigns because the parties can use the money in ways that critics say violate the spirit if not the letter of the law. At a recent Democratic National Committee gala that cost $2,000 a person to attend, the Democrats raised $12.3 million. But that did not even come close to the $16 million that the Republicans raised at one of their events in January. -- Missouri Convention: Electing Missouri's final nine delegates to the Republican National Convention, delegates to the state convention gave five to Bob Dole and four to Alan Keyes. Pat Buchanan addressed the state gathering in an attempt to increase his totals but was shut out. Missouri is sending 36 delegates to the national convention: 19 pledged to Dole, 11 to Buchanan and 6 to Keyes. -- Reform Party: Ross Perot's new Reform Party, which announced earlier it would hold a national convention in early September in a still unnamed city, now says it "might schedule it" in August, between the dates of the Republican and Democratic conventions. That could inject a new factor into the major parties' battle for media attention. Spokesmen for the Republicans and the Democrats shrugged off concerns, but observers felt such timing would kill any "media bounce" for Bob Dole after he secures his party's nomination. Said Reform Party national coordinator Russell Verney: "There's plenty of ink space for everyone to get their message out." --------------- --------------- JOURNALISTIC JUXTAPOSITIONS -- Baltimore Sun editorial writer Daniel Berger: "The candidate who would bomb Serbs and president who would not but did, is now facing an opponent who will denounce anything he does abroad. But it will take a foreign policy disaster rigged by a hostile regime, not criticism from his opponent, to do Mr. Clinton in. Not even Republican Cubans from Florida should take Senator Dole at his word about throwing Castro from power. No president has tried since John F. Kennedy and that was a mistake." -- New York Magazine columnist Jacob Weisberg: "The fundamental conflict within contemporary conservatism is over the role of government. The division is a direct result of the chimerical revolution of the Reagan years, when Republicans declared an assault on Big Government but never made a serious attempt to execute it. On one side are those intent on drastically shrinking the public sector like the House majority leader, Dick Armey, and his freshmen acolytes. On the other are those like Mr. Dole who have accepted the basic functions of the New Deal welfare state and think President Reagan was shrewd to leave it alone." --------------- --------------- PUNDIT'S PEARLS -- Political analyst Jeffrey Bell: "Dole's best hope for victory is to separate himself from the Republican Congress, move to the center on a number of issues that have hurt Republicans, and educate voters instead about Dole's impressive biography and superior character. The crown jewel of this strategy is back-channel wooing of Colin Powell to reverse his earlier decision and serve as Dole's running mate." -- American Conservative Union political director Bill Pascoe: "Though liberals and Democrats have already begun their celebrations, declaring in gleeful tones that this is an act of desperation from a desperate man, it is not. It is, in fact, a brilliant strategic move, and demonstrates in one decision why this fall's race will be much closer than the conventional wisdom now allows." -- Progress and Freedom Foundation fellow Arianna Huffington: "There are no guarantees in sacrifices. But there is a symbolic power in them that goes far beyond political analysts' charts and figures and touches people's hearts and minds. Which is exactly what the Republican nominee needs to do." -- Television analyst John McLaughlin: "Now that Bob Dole is out among the people, what can he do to win them over? The best way is for him to follow his first bold move, quitting the Senate, with a second bold move; namely, propose a big tax cut for the American people. That's what Dole handlers want him to do. This would be a sure way, they say, for Dole to distinguish Dole from Clinton." --------------- --------------- EDITORIAL EXCERPTS -- Roanoke (Virginia) Times and World News: "The American constitutional system differs from most democracies in that the head of government is elected separately from the legislative branch. In most systems, the head of the majority party in parliament -- that is, a Bob Dole (before resigning from the Senate) -- is the prime minister. We're not suggesting a new Constitution. The American system has its virtues. Separating the presidency from the Congress, though, can also invite gridlock." -- Topeka (Kansas) Capital-Journal: "The day was bittersweet not just for Dole, but for Kansas. We lose a political legend and legislative virtuoso. We lose tremendous clout, built up day by day for 27 years by a man with the use of one hand but with a single-minded determination to get things done." -- Kansas City Star: "His decision will be widely seen as an attempt to position himself as some sort of political 'outsider.' Dole should resist that temptation, which obviously won't fly in light of his long public career." -- Madison (Wisconsin) Capital Times: "Dole's problem has never been the Senate. In fact, his ability in the past to forge compromises and advance critical legislation in a relatively bipartisan manner was his greatest strength. Dole's challenge is the 'vision thing.' He doesn't have any." -- Columbus Dispatch: "There are indications that Dole's sacrificing decision had one desired effect immediately: energizing the party faithful, quieting -- if not uniting -- discordant factions, healing wounds and bringing the campaign as a whole into sharper focus." -- Detroit News: "Republicans for months have been downcast about their chances this fall. But political desperation sometimes leads to political inspiration. Our sense is that in casting aside the trappings of past glory and running as a plain citizen, Bob Dole has shown himself a more interesting political figure -- and a man of more genuine character -- than many observers suspected." -- Atlanta Constitution: "Give him credit for making this presidential campaign livelier and, no doubt, more competitive. The man has grit." -- Richmond Times Dispatch: "While it's tempting to say all office-holders running for election ought to resign, the approach would be impractical because it would result in vacancies across the board. Nevertheless, Bob Dole's move is admirable. It reinforces his reputation for sacrifice." -- St. Louis Post Dispatch: "Mr. Dole is depriving himself of a platform from which to keep himself in the public eye and to do almost daily battle with the president." -- Omaha World Herald: "It may seem daunting for Dole to shed the trappings of office. But his decision to put everything on the line reflects character and determination. By reflecting the confidence of a man who is willing to risk much to gain much, Dole's master stroke should, over time, make his campaign more focused and credible." --------------- --------------- CLINTON RESPONSE TO ARKANSAS "WHITEWATER" TRIAL DEBORAH TATE WHITE HOUSE President Clinton says he feels sorry for his former Whitewater business partners, James and Susan McDougal, and Arkansas Governor Jim Guy Tucker, after all three were found guilty of charges relating to the Whitewater real estate deal. Mr. Clinton was involved in the land deal that went sour in the 1980's when he was governor of Arkansas, but he was not accused of any wrongdoing in the trial, a point the president's lawyer made clear Tuesday. In a terse written statement released shortly after the verdicts were announced, President Clinton's lawyer, Mark Fabiani, noted that prosecutors and defense attorneys both agreed that Mr. Clinton had nothing to do with the allegations involved in the trial. Mr. Clinton testified by videotape for the defense earlier this month, repeating his position that he had done nothing wrong and broken no laws. At a brief appearance before reporters Tuesday, Mr. Clinton expressed regret upon learning of the verdicts: "Obviously, on a personal level, I am very sorry for governor tucker and for Jim and Susan McDougal. But the jury has decided, I was asked to give testimony. I did that, and for me it is time to go back to work." When asked if the verdicts meant the jury did not believe his testimony, the president replied 'I doubt it'. He would not comment on whether governor tucker should resign. White House spokesman Mike McCurry says Mr. Clinton was not surprised by the verdicts, saying, in his words, the president had no way of knowing which way the jury would decide. Observers say the verdicts will likely encourage Republicans in Congress to continue their investigation into the Whitewater affair, in which many questions remain unanswered. Mr. McCurry said he would not be surprised if Republicans make political hay out of the jury's decision this election year. But the spokesman would not say whether the White House believes the verdicts represent a political setback for the president, who has a double-digit lead in public opinion polls over his presumptive Republican challenger, Bob Dole. --------------- --------------- CLINTON ATTEMPTS TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH THE MILITARY DAVID BORGIDA WHITE HOUSE As the 1996 presidential election campaign heats up, President Clinton has been working hard lately to improve his relationship with the U.S. military community. Given his decision to avoid military service in Vietnam, it has been somewhat of an uphill battle. The president believes he is making progress, turning an uphill battle into a fair fight. It is a political constituency difficult to ignore as of August 1995, 1.5 million Americans were serving on active duty in the U.S. military, with millions of family members and military veterans integrated into the civilian society. With the presidential election months away, it has become clear the Clinton-gore re-election campaign believes it simply cannot turn its back on these voters: "The veterans never stopped taking every step they could for America, now it is our turn to do what we should do." That statement was by President Clinton, on Tuesday, announcing his decision to extend disability benefits to Vietnam-era veterans who were exposed to the herbicide agent orange: "On this memorial day, let us draw inspiration from the spirit that surrounds us, to give those who still defend our freedom and security in the military today the support they need and deserve to fulfill their important mission." That was President Clinton on Monday, addressing a largely military crowd at the Arlington National Cemetery Amphitheater. "We owe many debts to those who gave all they had to defend America's security and values around the world." And that was President Clinton, on Saturday, in his radio address to the nation, paying tribute to the nation's war dead just before Memorial Day. "We are grateful to you, and grateful that you are the best-trained, best-equipped, best-prepared fighting force on earth." President Clinton, last Wednesday, during a visit to the USS Intrepid, a decommissioned aircraft carrier, now a military museum in New York. He praised U.S. naval forces and urged them not to despair following the suicide of Admiral Mike Boorda, chief of naval operations. All this comes as the president becomes more active in his re-election bid against expected Republican nominee Bob Dole, a severely wounded and highly decorated World War II veteran. It also comes as the Republican National Committee broadcast a political advertisement over the Memorial Day weekend mocking the president because his personal attorney suggested the president could delay a sexual harassment suit filed against him by invoking a 1940 law shielding members of the military from such action. The president's attorney suggested the act applied to the president, who is commander in chief of the nation's military. It prompted an outcry from decorated military veterans who charged it was hypocritical for the president to take steps to avoid military service in Vietnam and then seek to use the military exemption. In the face of this, the president's attorney told the Supreme Court Tuesday he would not rely on the law to avoid the lawsuit, brought when the president was Arkansas governor. The episode served to underscore the fragile and politically combustible nature of the president's relationship with the military. Early in the president's term, what began as a rocky relationship worsened with the president's decision to allow homosexuals in the military. But now it's not just the president and his surrogates who say he has done a lot to support the men and women in the military over the last three and a half years. The head of the 2.1 million member Veterans of Foreign Wars calls the president's decision Tuesday to extend benefits to Vietnam veterans a compassionate one, but more importantly, he says the president has done what he calls an above average job on behalf of veterans, "as good or better" than previous administrations. Yet Bob Currieo acknowledges that for some, the president's lack of military service can never be forgotten: "There's a moral void, this is the way I understand it with some veterans, that there is a moral void in the fact that he not only didn't serve, we know there are a number of people in Congress who never served, but the history behind him not serving has troubled many veterans." Still, he points out a slim majority of the members of his organization supported Bill Clinton over former President George bush in 1992. And he says his organization has not yet chosen which presidential candidate it will support in 1996, a sure sign Bill Clinton will at least get a fair chance at making his case to a constituency he badly wants to win over. --------------- --------------- CLINTON ACCUSED OF "STEALING" DOLE'S CAMPAIGN ISSUES By Alexander M. Sullivan Watching his Democratic opponent appropriate traditionally Republican applause lines faster than he can deliver them, Senator Bob Dole is smilingly accusing President Clinton of petty theft. Whether it is welfare reform or crime or wayward teenagers, the presumptive Republican presidential candidate has suffered mostly in silence as Clinton has co-opted Republican positions on each issue. Finally, when the president endorsed the basics of a Republican governor's plan to reform the welfare system -- three days before Dole traveled to Wisconsin to do so -- the senator quipped the president's move was "probably petty theft." It's true that Clinton's campaign has a fast-response team -- patterned on the successful disaster control unit created for the 1992 presidential campaign -- that counters any Dole thrust as soon as the senator mounts it. In fact, within minutes of Dole's address on welfare reform, the fax machines of news organizations were whirring with unsolicited comment from Ann Lewis, deputy manager of Clinton's unannounced re-election campaign. Lewis had kind words for Dole, claiming he had "embraced Clinton initiatives.... We are not complaining. We are gratified Senator Dole has joined us on these important issues." Commenting on the welfare program specifically and more generally on Clinton's move to the political center, Dole rejoined, "If we go to enough states, we may straighten out the country." Clinton has been seeking -- successfully -- to blur party distinctions ever since the Republican Party gained control of both Houses of Congress in November 1994. Did Republicans want to eliminate deficit spending by a date certain? Clinton moved from refusal to set a date to targeting a budget balance by the year 2002. Listening to the president prod Republicans to balance the budget now, one would think it was his idea in the first place. Concerning issues of public morality, if Dole rails at Hollywood for the sex and violence rampant in movie theaters and on the television screen, Clinton moves in to press legislation requiring an electronic governor on television sets. This would allow parents to block reception of certain programming. (Many of the provisions of that legislation were immediately challenged in court by civil liberties groups.) The president also got voluntary agreements, at a White House conference for motion picture and television producers, to moderate the content of future programs and films. If Republicans view with alarm the state of public education, Clinton suggests local school districts should require uniforms for students to eliminate fashion rivalry and the occasional violence it sparks. When Republicans assail laws and regulations seeking to keep government and religion at arm's length, especially in schools, Clinton issues a handbook of what religious activities will escape court challenge. The president is campaigning rhetorically as well to eliminate use of tobacco products by those under age 18, to discourage sexual activities among teenagers, and to encourage business firms to succeed by treating employees more kindly. Among the reporters who listen to his every speech, Clinton is being called "nanny-in-chief," a word play on his military title, commander-in-chief of the U.S. armed forces. Clinton, of course, is pursuing the well-worn path to victory in American elections. With few exceptions, the candidate who can occupy the center of the political spectrum with a message of optimism and hope tends to win. Further, Clinton is relying more heavily on an old but controversial political ally, Dick Morris, a consultant who has counseled both Democratic and Republican candidates, sometimes in the same election year, although not for the same office. To the distress of some of his fellow Democrats -- but to his own benefit in the public opinion polls -- the president has adopted "triangulation" as his campaign strategy. Triangulation calls on a candidate to "split the difference" between positions espoused by the Republican and Democratic parties. With a certain amount of anguish, Republicans like House Speaker Newt Gingrich and House Majority Leader Dick Armey contend the president is succeeding all too well. Dole recognizes the effectiveness of the Clinton tactics of quick reaction and triangulation. Speaking of the Clinton rapid response team, the candidate acknowledged, "They react fairly quickly." He nonetheless retains the optimism any seeker of votes must nurture. The president may blur differences between them, but Dole predicted the American people will catch on. "Given the choice between a Republican and a Democrat who talks like a Republican," he said hopefully, "the American voter will choose the real thing." --------------- --------------- ATTENTION IN ARKANSAS PRIMARY FOCUSES ON U.S. SENATE RACE By David Pitts In the Arkansas primary May 21, attention focused on the race for the U.S. Senate, since, as expected, President Clinton and Republican Bob Dole once again racked up presidential primary wins. The two top candidates in a five-way Democratic Senate primary were Attorney General Winston Bryant, a former lieutenant governor, and State Senator Lu Hardin. They will face each other in a runoff election on June 11. Lieutenant Governor Mike Huckabee, the Republican Senate candidate, was unopposed. In the November general election, Arkansans will choose between the Democratic and Republican nominees for the Senate seat currently occupied by Democrat David Pryor, who is retiring after three terms. Pryor was first elected in 1978 and is considered a close political ally of President Clinton. Arkansas, the president's home state, is currently led by Governor Jim Guy Tucker, who is being tried on seven fraud and conspiracy charges, and confronts a separate three-count indictment brought by the Whitewater prosecutor. If convicted, Tucker could lose his office, and since Huckabee is lieutenant governor, he could succeed the governor. But Huckabee says that is unlikely to occur. Historically, Arkansas likes to elect Democrats to the U.S. Senate. It has not sent a Republican there since the late 19th century. But the Democrats may not have so easy a win this year since Huckabee is politically popular and won in 1994 with 58 percent, the largest Republican margin ever in the state. The race will be closely watched by the pundits because President Clinton is an Arkansan. If a Democrat wins the Senate seat decisively in November, it will be an indication that the president's influence is not waning in his home state, as Republicans have claimed. If the Democrat loses, it will be seen as a political embarrassment for Clinton. In the Republican presidential primary, with 99 percent of the precincts reporting, Dole received 77 percent of the votes cast to Pat Buchanan's 23 percent. President Clinton won 73 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary, with 17 percent uncommitted and the remaining 10 percent split between two other candidates. Twenty delegates were at stake for the Republican National Convention and 48 for the Democratic National Convention. Arkansas had an open primary, meaning voters could participate in either party's primary. In Oregon, State Senate president and frozen food tycoon Gordon Smith won the Republican Senate primary May 21, while high tech businessman Tom Bruggere won the Democratic race. They will compete in November for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Senator Mark Hatfield. Oregon voters also rejected a referendum seeking to make it more difficult to get referendums on the statewide ballot. The state's presidential primary was held earlier this year. --------------- --------------- REPORTS CONFLICT ON LENGTH OF SERVICE FOR DOLE SUCCESSOR By Stuart Gorin There have been conflicting reports out of Kansas about how long Senator Bob Dole's appointed successor will serve before an election is held, and the whole question may have to be decided in court. Dole's regular six-year term of office expires in January 1999. Under Kansas law, Governor Bill Graves is to appoint a temporary successor. When Dole announced his decision to step down effective on or before June 11, the expectation was the appointment would last two years. But the secretary of state for Kansas, Ron Thornburg, announced that the election to fill Dole's seat for the remaining two years of the term must be held this November 5, meaning the governor's appointee would only serve for several months. According to Thornburg's office, however, there could be a court challenge to this scenario. Says David Miller, chairman of the Kansas Republican Party, Dole's departure is "creating quite a flurry in the political community." There already will be a Senate election in Kansas this November because the state's other member of the upper chamber, Nancy Kassebaum, is retiring. June 10 is the deadline to file for that race, which was already scheduled to take place August 6. Several big name politicians in both political parties have expressed interest in running, and the numbers increased once it was known both seats are open. The last time a Democrat was victorious in a Senate race in Kansas was 1932. State officials plan to extend the filing date to June 24 for Dole's seat but still hold the special election the same date as the primary election for Kassebaum's seat. According to the Washington Post, one of several scenarios that the governor is exploring involves naming to Dole's seat Congressman Pat Roberts, the current chairman of the House Agriculture Committee. But Roberts would run for Kassebaum's seat and after the election would relinquish the Dole seat, for which others would compete. Then, if victorious, Roberts not only would have a six-year term, he also would have seniority over the rest of next year's incoming Senate newcomers. Meanwhile, even though the Senate Republicans will not select a new majority leader to succeed Dole until next month, House Majority Leader Dick Armey says party whip (second in command) Trent Lott has more than enough support to win. Lott, who is opposed in the race by fellow Mississippian Thad Cochran, is hinting that Cochran should withdraw rather than face embarrassment. Thus far, 21 Senate Republicans have publicly announced their support for Lott. --------------- --------------- DOLE WELFARE REFORM PROMISES JIM MALONE WASHINGTON Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole is promising real welfare reform if he wins the November election. Senator Dole spoke to a rally in the Midwestern state of Wisconsin Tuesday and challenged President Clinton to back up his rhetorical support for welfare reform with action. Wisconsin's Republican Governor Tommy Thompson is a leader in state efforts to reform welfare. Senator Dole was eager to endorse the Wisconsin approach. It requires adult welfare recipients to find work within two years and replaces cash aid from the federal government with job training programs. Mr. Dole described the current welfare system as the greatest shame of the great society programs of the 1960s enacted into law by Democrats. He says this handout approach has robbed an entire dependent class of people of dignity and hope: "It is not compassionate to lead people into a life of drugs, dependency and despair. There is nothing compassionate about that but we have been doing it for 30 or 40 years. Real compassion must sometimes take the form of tough love. It is time to get people out of the destructive lifestyles of welfare once and for all." Over the weekend President Clinton moved to gain some political advantage on the issue ahead of the Dole speech when he offered support for Wisconsin's welfare program. The president has been moving to the political center on a number of issues of late, an obvious source of frustration to Senator Dole: "When President Clinton read that I was coming to Wisconsin to discuss welfare reform, he suddenly decides that he supports what Governor Thompson has done. If this keeps up, Bill Clinton will not have to make speeches any more. All he will have to do is find out my stand on an issue and just stand up and say, oh, me too, me too." Senator Dole says the president's words in support of welfare reform do not match his actions in vetoing two different reform plans proposed by Republicans in Congress. Mr. Dole says welfare reform should be done by the individual states, not the federal government. White House officials were quick to fire back at Senator Dole on welfare reform. Presidential spokesman Mike McCurry says the Clinton Administration is working hard in cooperation with the states to fulfill the president's 1992 campaign pledge to end welfare as it is now known. Spokesman McCurry saw little new in the Dole speech except some more personal attacks on the president: "Because there is no new substance in anything that he said on welfare reform today so he resorts to personal attacks. That is all he is left with since he clearly did not study the president's record on this subject nor is he familiar with the bill we submitted to Congress." Senator Dole got a warm response from the crowd when he asked them what they thought of his decision to resign his Senate seat and campaign full time for president. But public opinion polls indicate his decision to leave the senate is not winning over many voters, the president still has a big lead in most surveys. --------------- --------------- DOLE SAYS SENATE WILL VOTE AGAIN ON BALANCED BUDGET AMENDMENT VICTOR BEATTIE WASHINGTON Senate leader Bob Dole, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, has promised the Senate will cast one more vote on a balanced budget amendment before he leaves office next month. Mr. Dole is preparing to unveil a major policy address on welfare reform Tuesday in the upper Midwest state, Wisconsin: Mr. Dole, who last week announced his retirement from the Senate to concentrate on the presidential campaign, says one of his last acts as upper-house leader will be to bring up an amendment to the constitution requiring a balanced budget. The Kansas Republican, speaking to the American international automobile dealers association, acknowledged approval by two-thirds of the Senate, a requirement for a constitutional amendment, is unlikely: "We'll lose, but we'll have one more vote because we want the American people to see after all the promises of balancing the budget, all of the promises of cutting spending and we're not there yet. But, this is our best hope." The House of Representatives passed the proposed amendment last year, but the senate failed to do so by one vote. Republicans have suggested some changes that might gain more Democratic support. --------------- --------------- CLINTON ADMINISTRATION ON SAME-SEX MARRIAGE DEBORAH TATE WHITE HOUSE The Clinton Administration has indicated president Clinton would sign legislation being considered by the U.S. congress that would ban same-sex marriages. It is the latest social issue on which the president has taken a more conservative stand this election year, even though he risks losing the support of some in the gay community who backed his candidacy in 1992. Republican lawmakers have introduced the legislation banning same-sex marriages in response to a pending legal case in Hawaii that may result in making such marriages legal in that state. Under the terms of the U.S. constitution, if same-sex marriage is made legal in Hawaii, the other 49 states would also have to accept such unions as legal. But the legislation before Congress would change that. It would define marriage under federal law as the legal union between one man and one woman. White House spokesman Mike McCurry last week indicated Mr. Clinton would sign the legislation. But it was clear the usually well-versed spokesman was not having an easy time explaining the president's position in a way that would not alienate the gay community, which strongly backed Mr. Clinton in the 1992 election: "The only thing I have, the president believes that marriage as an institution should be reserved for union between one man and one woman. That has long been his view. I have not gone deeper into the moral philosophy behind it. Marriage as an institution is one that brings people together, and thus is something that does strengthen the tradition of family life in this country." 1But word Mr. Clinton would sign the bill immediately angered gay activists, who had seen the president abandon them on another key issue, his 1992 campaign pledge to lift the ban on gays in the military. Tracy Connaty of the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force called for Mr. Clinton to reconsider his support for the legislation. Spokesman McCurry says he respects the views of those who disagree with the president's position. But he is also quick to defend Mr. Clinton's record on gay issues: "There is a difference between sanctioning something and making sure you prohibit discrimination. This president's record on insuring there is not discrimination against gays and lesbians is very clear: He feels strongly on that, but just as a question of what he believes, he does not believe that same sex marriage, he just does not believe in it." Mr. McCurry calls the same-sex marriage issue a divisive one, and he accuses Republicans of using it for political ends: "There is a sense here that what is driving the public debate on this issue is an attempt by some in congress to force this as a wedge issue. The president wishes we would do a little more to bring Americans together, and not hold out any community for punitive action." As the political mood in the country has become more conservative in recent years, so has Mr. Clinton's stand on many social issues, from welfare reform to the fight against crime, and now same-sex marriage. The strategy is being used by the president to counter charges he is too liberal from his presumptive Republican challenger, Bob Dole. --------------- --------------- DOLE SAYS HE WOULD END CASTRO'S REIGN IN CUBA VICTOR BEATTIE WASHINGTON Retiring Senate leader Bob Dole, the presumptive Republican Party presidential nominee, has promised Cuban-Americans he will end Fidel Castro's reign in Cuba, if he is elected. Mr. Dole took aim Sunday at President Clinton's foreign policy as one that, in his words, telegraphs indecision and weakness to the world. Mr. Dole, speaking to an outdoor Miami rally of Cuban-Americans, promises a foreign policy based on U.S. interests, not on what he calls President Castro's threatening noises. He pledges an end to communist rule in Cuba: "The appeasement policy of the Clinton Administration will be replaced by an iron resolve to bring Fidel Castro down and end his regime of terror in Cuba." He says history will write that, under President Bob Dole, Mr. Castro's house of cards came tumbling down. Mr. Dole accuses the administration of failing to stand up to Cuba until four Cuban-Americans were killed when two civilian aircraft were shot down by Cuban warplanes in February. The planes were operated by the anti-castro humanitarian organization "Brothers To The Rescue." Last March, President Clinton signed into law a measure tightening the sanctions on Cuba. The administration says it is designed to increase pressure on President Castro by discouraging future investment in the island nation. Florida, with a large Cuban-American population, will be a key battleground state in the November election. --------------- --------------- POLITICIANS LAY-OUT POSITIONS FOR NOVEMBER ELECTIONS JANE BERGER WASHINGTON Republicans and Democrats are beginning to lay out their positions for November's general election as the presidential campaign between President Clinton and the presumptive Republican nominee Senator Bob Dole gets underway in Ernest. Two leading senators discussed the political agenda in a U.S. television interview. Senate majority leader Bob Dole stunned both parties with a surprise decision last week to resign his Senate seat and campaign full-time against President Clinton. Mr. Dole is the presumptive Republican Party presidential nominee and he has between running far behind President Clinton in public opinion poles. Senator Trent Lott of Mississippi is expected to win a Senate vote to succeed Mr. Dole when he formally steps down next month as majority leader. Mr. Lott said the Republicans in congress had lost their message of smaller government, lower taxes, and less government spending. But he said the party intends to refocus its message in support of Mr. Dole: "We kind of lost our way late last year and earlier this year. But we are going to try to get back and talk about the issues that we think are important to America's future. Bill Clinton has been a monument to the status quo. He said he was going to cut spending, he was going to balance the budget, he was going to change welfare as we have known it, give a middle income tax break, he has done none of that. We want a vision of the future that will be also humane and sensitive to the needs of our children and our parents." The top Senate Democrat minority leader Tom Daschle said the American people have rejected the Republican agenda because it is too extreme. He said President Clinton intends to campaign on his record of accomplishments, including a strong economy: "They talk, the president acts. Now, for the last four years we have not done this since the civil war. We have seen deficit reduction in every year. We have seen economic growth that has created nine-million new jobs. That is a record we can be very proud of." On the subject of taxes, Mr. Lott said it had been a mistake to raise taxes under presidents bush, and Clinton. Senator Daschle noted although President Clinton approved a tax increase, it was only aimed at the top two-percent of wealthiest Americans. --------------- --------------- WORLD PRESS: U.S. POLITICS DIANA MCCAFFREY WASHINGTON Foreign observers continued to mull over a number of U.S. domestic stories and developments and their possible effect on the presidential campaigns of Democrat Bill Clinton and Republican Bob Dole. The recent guilty verdict in the Little Rock trial of former associates of President and Mrs. Clinton sparked the most numerous and recent editorials. Pundits for the most part deemed the verdict "devastating" and "bad news" for the president, and believed it could considerably diminish his chances for reelection. Bonn's centrist General-Anzeiger said, "Among quite a few voters, the vague suspicion will intensify that Clinton is 'somehow' involved in the affair." A majority of commentators asserted that the Republicans cannot be anything but hopeful, with one writer contending that the verdict "is just what [challenger Dole] was waiting for." Another German writer pointed out that Senator Dole "would be a bad election campaigner if he does not take advantage of Whitewater by questioning the character of his opponent." London's liberal Guardian added, "If anything can save the fortunes of presidential challenger Bob Dole, it is the new impetus now given to Whitewatergate by Tuesday's verdict." Some, however, were not so convinced that President Clinton's bid for reelection would be harmed by the verdict, with one British daily stressing that "there are still five months to go before the election and according to the polls, the president is still well ahead of his opponent." In the end, others said, it will be the American electorate who will decide what weight to give the verdict. Opinionmakers also focused on other activities of the president as well as those of Congress that may influence the November contest. German and British papers called President Clinton's meeting with German Chancellor Kohl in Milwaukee last week mostly "symbolic," and part of the Democratic election strategy. London's conservative Times suggested that the president had "invited Herr Kohl to Milwaukee because Wisconsin has a huge German-American population and Mr. Clinton badly needs to win the state in November's presidential election." Some German media voices, however, maintained that the visit went beyond U.S. politics and was also aimed at "strengthening the links between the United States and Europe." Meanwhile, pundits in Latin America and Europe were disturbed by recent efforts in the U.S. Congress to strengthen U.S. immigration laws and beef up police action against illegal aliens in the U.S. Mexican editorials were the most vitriolic, calling the U.S. move "racist" politics. One observer fumed, "U.S. 'cheap' politicians have hammered into the minds of many Americans the absurd idea that Mexican immigrants affect their social wellbeing." European critics charged that America was falling victim to Pat Buchanan's rhetoric, looking inward with an "American- first" chauvinism. An Italian commentator lamented that the "legend of America for all is vanishing." A bright note was found at the recent 13th U.S.-Mexico Binantional Commission meeting, where several Mexican papers proclaimed that agreements signed during the session "reflect the political determination of both governments to improve the two nations' bilateral relationship. It is now time to translate those agreements into actions...particularly regarding the unilateral attitudes about immigration." Nationalist Excelsior admonished U.S. authorities to "work so that reason prevails and there is good neighborliness." This survey is based on 36 reports from 12 countries, April 19-May 30. EUROPE GERMANY: "In The Maelstrom of Whitewater" According to centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (5/30), "Step by step, the Whitewater affair is cracking a foundation which the successful president urgently needs for a sound standing and for his reelection: credibility.... Now jurors have convicted Clinton's business partners of fraud.... During his 12 years as governor, President Clinton obviously surrounded himself with a bunch of loan jugglers and smart people who knew how to bend the law. Even if he is free from any guilt, these people could considerably undermine Clinton's reputation. For Senator D'Amato and Newt Gingrich, Clinton's past in Arkansas is a highly welcome election campaign topic. By doing so they can easily dispel attraction from the weakness of their own candidate Dole and from the failure of their so-called conservative revolution." "Start The Mud-Slinging Now" Centrist General-Anzeiger of Bonn (5/30) opined, "The jurors' verdict is bad news for President Clinton, but for Bob Dole, his Republican challenger, it is just what he was waiting for.... However, even a regiment of prosecutors did not find any evidence of the president having broken the law. But is this playing any role? In the era of TV news, the catch phrase 'Whitewater' and Clinton's picture are enough--and among quite a few voters the vague suspicion will intensify that Clinton is 'somehow' involved in the affair. Dole would be a bad election campaigner if he does not take advantage of 'Whitewater' by questioning the character of his opponent. We Europeans can now enjoy the luxury of watching this spectacle, since our election campaigns focus on ideas and concepts--don't they?" "Clinton And Realpolitik" Washington correspondent Leo Wieland wrote in right-of- center Frankfurter Allgemeine (5/28), "The presidential candidate Clinton made a promise in 1992. He said that if he was to replace George Bush as president, he would stop the pampering of dictators.' Soon afterwards, President Clinton turned into a foreign policy pragmatist, who, without great fuss, quickly extended the MFN status for China. And when his first two years as president were over, he deliberately overlooked the fact that the American arch enemies in Tehran supplied weapons to the Muslims in the Balkans.... And in the past few days, realpolitik won twice. He extended the MFN status for China again...and then supported for humanitarian reasons- -and because of the fuel price--a relaxation of the oil embargo on Iraq. "This would not be very exciting if there were no presidential elections in the United States. But because this is so, an abundance of domestic policy considerations, partisan fights about positions and possible unpleasant effects on friend and foe are linked to every foreign policy decision, reaction or ruse.... "The president has the bonus of being the incumbent, and he has the smarter strategists. They advised him, for instance, to receive Poland's ex-president Lech Walesa in June even before the new Polish President Kwasniewski.... The problem are not the voters in Poland but the Polish voters in the United States. In the meantime, Dole is addressing another target group and climbed the summit of untenable election promises when he told Cuban exiles in Florida that he would topple Fidel Castro and finish his terrorist rule.' Since Eisenhower, every U.S. president has tried this--to no avail." "Kohl's Symbolic Trip To Milwaukee" U.S. correspondent Uwe Knuepfer filed the following editorial in General-Anzeiger of Bonn (5/25): "It is easy to consider the German-American trip to Milwaukee as a waste of taxpayers' money and as election campaign theater since President Clinton wants to be reelected in November. But the trip had its effects and they were planned and are valuable. Never before have the people of Wisconsin heard about and seen so much of Germany as during and before the chancellor's visit. Newspapers and TV programs were full of reports and factual news stories. But how many Germans knew of Kohl's trip, knew where Milwaukee is situated and how many German- Americans live there? In addition to their practical experience, trips of state leaders are also of symbolic significance." "Chancellor Of 'Unity' Travels To Wisconsin" Right-of-center Bayerische Rundschau of Kulmbach stated (5/25), "The chancellor knows very well: flag-waiving children, some entertaining hours among German-Americans and the lavish praise of the president and election campaigner Bill Clinton cannot obscure the fact that Germans and Americans will cultivate a rather sober relationship that will be characterized by a tough policy of interests in the upcoming stormy times.... With Helmut Kohl, the chancellor of unity traveled to Wisconsin. He is often sent when it is necessary to help the downtrodden Eastern Europe and the ailing Russia. Germany can lean on nobody no more, but it has turned into an important pillar on which East and West are leaning." "More Than An Election Campaign" Walther Stuetzle maintained in centrist Der Tagesspiegel of Berlin (5/23), "Only one thing is new regarding this trip of Chancellor Kohl: The formerly closely knit transatlantic net has alarmingly coarse meshes today.... The formerly considerable flow of mutual visits has turned into a small trickle. Senators and lawmakers rarely come across the Atlantic to Europe, and prominent German politicians have great difficulties meeting influential interlocutors in Washington.... "It is clear that, after the Dayton peace agreement runs out, a small force must stay in the Balkans. And it is also clear that Kohl cannot be willing to accept a German participation in such forces without the support of the United States. But Bill Clinton, with a view to the U.S. voters, wants to know how to find an accordance with the reality in Bosnia and the claims during the Berlin conference. Thus, Kohl's meeting with the Germans in Milwaukee is only a minor case, and this in view of the fact that the election strategist Clinton knows that there is no organized German voter group in the United States.... Nevertheless, Kohl has an important task: to strengthen the links between the United States and Europe and to prevent (the Germans in the United States) from looking to Europe only and ignoring the events in the United States." "The Flip-Side Of Globalization" PDS-owned Neues Deutschland of Berlin commented (5/6), "Washington will of course officially deny it. However, one knows from experience what the words 'no one has an intention to build a wall', can really mean. One thing is for sure, the United States has made a big step in the direction of increasing anti-foreigner tensions and isolationism. The overwhelming majority vote of the Senate to increase border security and speed up the return of illegal immigrants coupled with reduced social services is setting a course. The flip-side of an economic globalization is the social-political retreat into one's own borders. The decision of the Senate, which Clinton demonstrably applauded, signals the sounds we shall be hearing in the final part of the election year. He is the perfect example of the trend toward prosperity-based protectionism currently being followed by political parties and largely brought into the forefront of the election-race by Pat Buchanan. This America-first chauvinist, whose influence will continue and should not be underestimated, has declared that he is the future of the Republican Party. It gives one a bad feeling when one sees confirmation of this statement in the actions of others." BRITAIN: "The Credibility Chasm" The conservative Times editorialized (5/30), "As Bob Dole prepares to leave the Senate next month, he faces bad and good news on his electoral prospects. The bad is the consensus that the November contest is Bill Clinton's to lose. The good is that recent events suggest this is what he might do.... Whitewater is but one factor that raised doubts about the president.... Character issues are always an element in presidential elections. That is quite proper, given that the role is part symbolic head of state as well as head of government. Many Democrats were willing to ask questions about Ronald Reagan's qualities for office. They will find a formula for raising the question of Mr. Dole's age this year. Nonetheless, it is the Clinton character which will come under scrutiny. Some 30 years ago, Lyndon Johnson's evasions over the direction of the Vietnam conflict brought the phrase 'credibility gap' into the American political lexicon. Under Bill Clinton--another southern Democrat with a probity problem--that gap has widened to a chasm. The electorate will decide what weight to give it." "Mixing In The Wrong Company" The liberal Guardian held (5/30), "If anything can save the fortunes of presidential challenger Bob Dole, it is the new impetus now given to Whitewatergate by Tuesday's verdict in Little Rock. No one should be held entirely responsible for his or her friends, but this goes a long way beyond accidental entanglement. Mr. Clinton's testimony was not central.... But Republican opponents (not Mr. Dole who remains sanctimoniously above it all) can now crow that the jurors preferred the evidence of a convicted felon. The complexities of Whitewater need a very large flowchart to explain. As one Republican consultant said cheerfully yesterday: 'The public doesn't understand the issue or what went on.' But the Clintons are only mired more deeply by the confusion. Whatever the details, they certainly chose the wrong partners for their unfortunate land venture in the Ozarks near the yet more unfortunately-named Crooked Creek. Their best defense appears to be that most small- town politicians get tangled up with people who are slightly dubious. Perhaps, but they don't all go on to become president of the big country." "Whitewatershed" The conservative tabloid London Evening Standard said (5/29), "The most significant feature of the trial was that an American jury wouldn't believe the word of the U.S. president who had voluntarily chosen to testify on behalf of his friends. This could have been because the evidence against the three men (sic) was overwhelming. Or perhaps it is a sign of a growing trend in America and indeed all Western democracies: The public has become profoundly cynical about politicians.... The Republicans smell blood and the cumulative effect of 'Whitewatergate' might yet bring Mr. Clinton down. However, he has a long way to fall. There are still five months to go before the election and according to the polls, the president is still well ahead of his opponent, the lackluster Bob Dole. The Americans have an unenviable choice in November between two of the least inspirational figures in public life." "It Doesn't Look Or Smell Good" BBC Radio's Today program (5/29) led with this from Washington correspondent Philip Short: "Mr. Clinton stands accused of no crime, and in his videotaped evidence at the trial strenuously denied any wrongdoing. But the fact that his former friends and close business associates James and Susan McDougal have been found guilty of carrying out a multi-million pound fraud, at the same time as they were making apparently legitimate investments on behalf of Mr. Clinton and his wife Hillary, raises questions about his judgement, if not his character. And casting doubt on Mr. Clinton's character is the centerpiece of the Republicans' strategy in this year's presidential election. "In comments after the verdict, Mr. Clinton sought subtly to distance himself from the case.... But the verdicts have given new impetus to ongoing investigations into the president's conduct, by Congress and by a grand jury, and in an election year any hint of wrongdoing, no matter how arcane, will be grist to the political mill of his Republican opponents." "Kohl, Clinton Meet For Summit Of Heavyweights" The Times reported (5/23), "Helmut Kohl, the German chancellor, and President Clinton meet in Wisconsin today for what the White House calls a summit but others are dubbing the 'Nosh of the century.'... A similar encounter in 1994 between the 15-stone American and the 21-stone German, once likened to a sumo wrestler by Mr. Clinton, has entered Washington folklore.... The president invited Herr Kohl to Milwaukee because Wisconsin has a huge German- American population and Mr. Clinton badly needs to win the state in November's presidential election. Advance teams of American and German officials visited the city to sample possible restaurants, but their choice remained a closely guarded secret yesterday.... "Between mouthfuls, the two men will discuss several weightier matters including Europe's objection to American legislation that would impose sanctions on foreign firms and executives who trade with Iran, Libya and Cuba. Germany does considerable business with Iran and believes it has helped to moderate Tehran's conduct, but Washington believes the world's leading exporter of terrorism should be treated as a pariah. It is good election-year politics for Mr. Clinton and he is not expected to relent." "'Dolespeak' Or 'Gushing Bubba-Speak'?" The centrist Independent's Washington correspondent Rupert Cornwell observed (5/23), "I've missed George Bush, badly.... The gap in my life has been what he said, or rather the way he said it--in other words, Bushisms. For those of us who observed first hand the Demosthenes of modern American presidents in action between 1989 and 1993, the very phrase has one quivering with laughter. No one, surely, could ever replace George Herbert Walker Bush's way with syntax, which could turn any public appearance into Saturday Night Live. Certainly not Bill Clinton, who speaks in textbook sentences with a recognizable beginning, middle and end, who forces no metaphor, whose chain of thought is quite maddeningly clear. But three and a half years on, happy days are here again. I refer to the dawning era of Dolespeak.... "The man basically hates talking, and is profoundly suspicious of anyone who enjoys it.... But the basic failing of both Bush and Dole is identical: An inability to articulate what passed through the brain. With Bush the result was discombobulated goofiness. With Dole it is a terse, tongue-tied shorthand.... But do not be over-hasty in writing off Bob Dole in this autumn's three presidential debates against the super-smooth, super-articulate Bill Clinton. For one things, he has acquired a new speechwriter, the novelist Mark Helprin, who produced the gloriously sappy speech with which Dole announced his resignation from the Senate last week.... "Second, there's his accent. Bush's preppy pseudo-Texan fooled no one. But Dole is an authentic product of the prairies, speaking the 'north midland' dialect of the U.S. heartlands. Language scientists have found that of all the important dialects and accents, it is the one that Americans relate to and trust the most--more certainly than the gushing Bubba-speak now emanating from the White House. But to exploit this asset properly, Dole must find something interesting to say. In other words, George Bush's pesky old 'vision thing.' At which point, a growly shade descends by my ear. 'Workin' on it,' it mutters. Whatever." ITALY: "Clinton's Troubles" Left-leaning, influential La Repubblica (5/30) contended, "The Whitewater verdict has had the effect of a 'twister' on U.S. politics.... The Little Rock 'twister' has hit America, has reached Washington, has given new hope to the Republicans, has demoralized the White House, and has encouraged the investigation of Special Prosecutor Kenneth Starr. And it has de facto reopened the electoral battle between Clinton and Dole.... With elegant indifference, Dole has not attacked the Democrats on...Whitewater...thus far. But it is obvious that the party will take care of that, both with television spots and in the Congressional investigation headed by Alphonse D'Amato. "Clinton will be forced to defend himself, and, as a matter of caution and for good luck, to remove the champagne bottles from the refrigerator." "America 'Home For All': A Vanishing Legend" Piero Sansonetti wrote in PDS (former Communist Party) organ L'Unita (5/6), "The United States is strengthening its borders. Not only symbolically: The border with Mexico will be entirely protected by a barrier. The legend of America as the 'home for all' is vanishing. The legislation approved yesterday by the Senate [on immigration] is not the hyper-reactionary law asked for by the Republicans, but it is nonetheless a severe law. The Democrats voted in favor of the new law, but Clinton said he does not like it." AUSTRIA: "Wild Waters, Small Tricklets" Conservative Die Presse (5/30) held, "After (Mr. Clinton) made a video statement as a witness for the defense--with no effect, as it turned out now, in the White House, they made the job very easy for themselves, with the remark that the president had appeared just as a witness and not in the dock, and with the terse information that Clinton's presidential activities were not affected at all.... On the other hand: After three years of Whitewater whirl, which the Clinton couple has survived so far and during which the one, real scandal did not blow up, the odds are in their favor now.... A scandal around the office-holder is probably the only chance for Dole&Co to regain lost territory.... But even that is not at all certain. Because after three years of too much talking about an offense which is, at the worst, absolutely unacceptable, but legally rather minor, the question remains if the majority of the population would therefore reject Clinton as president. There would be many more and probably much better reasons for that--who cares about shady real-estate deals?" BELGIUM: "Painful Verdict In The Midst Of The Campaign" According to independent Le Soir (5/30), "The verdict does not directly affect the Clintons, but it is definitely devastating.... The verdict....reactivates the polemic. Even in the absence of decisive disclosures, the continuation of investigations could impinge on the election campaign and push to the forefront the unflattering image of the close world of Arkansas at a moment when Bill Clinton thought that, thanks to the prestige of his function, he had overcome doubts about his moral fiber." "Unfortunate Timing" BRTN radio remarked (5/29) on the verdicts that "the affair comes at a very bad moment now that a presidential election is going on." SPAIN: "Clinton's Credibility At Stake Because Of The Whitewater Verdict" Independent El Mundo (5/30) ran this report from New York: "Justice pursues Clinton at the worst possible time. If the Whitewater verdict has seriously questioned his honesty and reputation, the imminent trial of the bankers who financed his1990 campaign threatens with exposing him even more." "Verdicts Could Harm Clinton" Conservative ABC (5/30) wrote from New York, "The outcome of the Arkansas trial brought forward the dangers of derailment for Clinton's November campaign. Yesterday's verdicts made the Clintons shiver. Bob Dole is a weak candidate and with a strong economy, Clinton's risks of losing the White House are reduced to either a scandal of this type or a fiasco in his foreign policy." SWITZERLAND: "Another Harsh Blow For Clinton" Center-right Journal de Gen ve's Washington correspondent Paul Sigaudor (5/30) remarked, "Although the judgment doesn't concern him directly, his image has been tarnished--and it's no surprise his political adversaries are triumphantly claiming that this case wasn't as contrived as the White House insisted.... "Americans have a charming saying--butterflies in the stomach--and Bill Clinton's got them. Starr is clearly capable of uncovering, at any moment, a new 'bomb' whose shrapnel could reach not only the president but also the first lady. Furthermore, the three guilty parties--al very close to the Clintons--give the impression that some of the truth remains to be revealed. Why would they alone have lied? Is Clinton to be trusted? Bob Dole intends to turn this affair to his advantage." SOUTH ASIA INDIA: "War Veterans Slam Clinton" The centrist Hindu ran this article by Sridhar Krishnaswami (5/29), "On Memorial Day in the United States...President Bill Clinton was facing the ire of veterans and veteran groups on the claim that he is on 'active duty' in the military by virtue of being the commander-in-chief. Five recipients of the Medal of Honor...are taking out full page advertisements in at least 13 national newspapers calling Mr. Clinton's claim of being an active military man an 'outrage.'... It is not the first time that...Clinton has had to face embarrassing moments and protest over his military service or in the extent to which he tried and stayed out of military service.... That the Republicans are trying to make the best out of the opportunity is obvious. Although senior Republican leaders have stayed out of the fray, the Republican National Committee has made no bones of the fact that it is very much behind veteran groups seeking to embarrass the president.... "The president successfully weathered the storm at the time of his campaigning in 1992; and in the three years he has been at the White House, although this issue comes up every now and then, Clinton has not been politically hurt. Some veterans and veteran groups tried to inflict damage on the Clinton presidency at the time of the recognition of Vietnam. That did not materialize and Clinton did have some important law makers who had served in the Vietnam on his side to win the argument that it was time to normalize relations with Hanoi. In fact veteran groups have now applauded the president in naming Douglas Peterson, a former Vietnam war veteran and a prisoner of war there, as the American ambassador to Vietnam." LATIN AMERICA MEXICO: "U.S. Needs Immigrants" Left-of-center La Jornada observed (5/28), "Facing the need of 350,000 agricultural workers for this year's harvest, the association of California farmers has demanded the establishment of a guest worker program similar to the Bracero program that was in effect until three decades ago.... Before analyzing the pros and cons of the proposal it is important to stress that it does away with the arguments by several xenophobic and racist sectors of U.S. society to the effect that Mexican workers are a burden on the U.S. economy and that they take jobs away from U.S. citizens.... The proposal could be the first step to solving in a bilateral and rational way the problems that several political and economic groups in the United States have created regarding Mexican emigration to the United States. To do this, it would be imperative for whatever agreement was reached to specify that the human, labor and social rights of Mexican workers would be respected, and that there would be a ban on any form of discrimination against those workers.... The Mexican government should ensure that the proposal develops into an instrument to protect Mexican workers, not to exploit them." "Mending Aggressions" Nationalist Excelsior (5/8), "History shows that U.S. mistakes--and very serious ones--made Mexico and the United States distant neighbors. However, NAFTA's passage presumed a new bilateral relationship in which mutual understanding would lead to more fair dealing with our country as equals and trading partners. Although several things indicate the existence of change, the United States shows its inability to understand 'modern times.' Even worse, frightening racist demonstrations against Mexican illegal aliens have taken place in the United States and the United States has shown an intention to continue using the fight against international drug trafficking as an excuse to violate Mexico's sovereignty and independence.... "Secretary Christopher (at the U.S. Binational Commission meeting) said that political reforms are taking place in Mexico to make it more open, with a 'stronger democracy.' Paradoxically, however, this recognition does not fully mean that a mature relationship, which respects the human and labor rights of Mexicans who emigrate, exists. That is one of the most unfair aspects of the U.S.-Mexico relationship." "Difficult Neighborliness Between Mexico And U.S." Nationalist El Universal headlined (5/8) "Cooperation, Not Recrimination; New Fight Against Drugs And Tough Measures Against Undocumented (Aliens)." Nationalist Unomasuno commented editorially (5/8) under the headline above, "The 13th U.S.-Mexico binational commission meeting took place against the backdrop of the highly complex and sometimes very difficult bilateral relationship.... However, the 11 agreements signed at the end of the BNC meeting reflect the political determination of both governments to improve the two nations' bilateral relationship. It is now time to translate those agreements into actions...particularly regarding the unilateral attitudes about immigration.... In any event, the recently concluded BNC is a good example that, with determination and cooperation, we can have mutual and satisfactory agreements." "Christopher's Attitude Was Very Positive" An editorial in nationalist El Universal said (5/8), "Eleven agreements were signed [at the BNC], but the most important accomplishment is the exchange of positive wishes and beliefs that recent differences in the U.S.-Mexico relationship will be overcome. Secretary Christopher's attitude was very positive. He advised Mexicans not to pay attention to the anti-Mexican campaign in the United States stemming from the election year rhetoric in that country." "Encouragement In U.S. Of Xenophobic Attitudes" Nationalist Excelsior opined (4/19), "The encouragement of xenophobic attitudes leads to ruptures that benefit no one. The United States and Mexico are destined to live side by side so they should make the most out of it. Mexicans have unleashed hostilities. However, cheap U.S. politicians have hammered into the minds of many Americans the absurd idea that Mexican immigrants affect their social well- being, take their jobs away, and undermine their civic lfie. These politicians do so to get more votes by appealing to unstable emotions. Nevertheless, U.S. authorities not involved in electoral struggles should work so that reason prevails and there is good neighborliness." ARGENTINA: "Waving The Flag Of Xenophobia" Monica Flores Correa wrote in left-of-center Pagina 12 (5/5), "To Bill Clinton, good news piles up on the economic front, thus encouraging his expectations of achieving his dream of being re-elected.... But the excellent news of one of the richest economies in the world, including specifically a decreasing unemployment index, does not have an impact on the furious attack from both parties, predominantly Republican, against immigrants. On Thursday, the Senate passed a law, with little modifications, which increases all sorts of police measures to detect and persecute illegal aliens.... Amidst the electoral furor, close to demagogy, nothing dissuades them that immigrants do not rob U.S. citizen's jobs. Nothing, not even the most obvious statistics. "The Republican Congress decided to continue with these persecuting measures, in spite of the opinion of a very big group of conservative forces which have joined liberal sectors in this battle to maintain the United States open to immigration. The business world wants immigration to exist, aware of the benefits that foreign brains bring to diverse areas of production, among them, technology.... For their part, liberals, in addition to favoring a society ready to receive immigration waves as a consequence of the logic of their ideology, fear that a verification system proposed by the law to identify whether the applicant to a job is legal or illegal, may lead to an investigative intrusion of its government.... But not a single well- founded indication has convinced the ultra-rightist Republican wing in Congress, nor Bill Clinton himself, who has said that he will veto this law because he is against denying education to illegal aliens' children and against restricting the access of illegal foreigners to certain social programs. And this pro 'scapegoat' crusade is accompanied in a very opportunistic way by one of the most liberal and leftist Democrats, Senator Ted Kennedy. Kennedy joins his voice against foreigners, to that of ultra-rightwing, xenophobic and presumed nazi supporter Patrick Buchanan.... Taking advantage of a lack of information and prejudice, political leadership waves the flag of xenophobia, knowing that spurring the people's fears is easier and provides a great deal more instantaneous electoral gratification than rational studies of a situation." DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: "So-Called American Dream" Establishment tabloid Ultima Hora held (5/5), "The so- called 'American Dream,' that for many decades has served as an incentive for millions of immigrants who have traveled to the United States in search of wealth and better fortune, has turned into a nightmare for many voyagers.... With the exception of some rural areas where there are still opportunities for the immigrant laborer without experience, in the large urban centers, such as New York, unemployment and economic difficulties affect even Americans themselves.... The situation has become particularly difficult for illegal immigrants or those who have an irregular status because of wider and more severe laws that impose sanctions on businesses that employ undocumented workers." GUATEMALA: "The Undocumented On Both Sides Of The Rio Grande" Nationalistic La Republica ran this piece by Nery Villatoro Robledo (4/28), "A few weeks ago the press wrote about the savage beating of undocumented Mexicans at the hands of the INS that led President Zedillo to issue a strong condemnation and demand that Bill Clinton's government bring those responsible to justice.... There is no doubt that these fascist practices (exist) with the pretense of curbing illegal immigration to the most powerful country to the north.... Those that immigrate to the United States have to endure a series of horrors from 'coyotes' that have turned this phenomena into a lucrative industry.... But this is only one part. Thousands of Guatemalans annually cross the Mexican border to work on the coffee farms in southern Mexico. There they suffer like the Mexican workers at the U.S. border: poor working conditions, bad treatment, starvation wages and humiliation at the hands of the Mexican immigration." --------------- --------------- WORLD PRESS: DOLE RESIGNATION: 'STROKE OF GENIUS OR DESPERATE ACT'? DIANA MCCAFFREY WASHINGTON Observers in Europe, Asia and Latin America were mixed in their reaction to the surprise announcement by presumed Republican presidential candidate Senator Robert Dole that he was resigning from the U.S. Senate to devote himself full time to his presidential campaign. Opinionmakers held that the reasoning behind Mr. Dole's decision centered mainly on a desire to distance himself from a "fractious" Republican majority in Congress. London's centrist Independent suggested, "Now he is free...cutting himself loose from a Congress whose unpopularity has been a prime reason for his own." Some also said that, by removing himself from the Washington legislative "swamp," he may force conservatives to fall in line with him. While a majority agreed that Mr. Dole's move was "dramatic," even "breathtaking," and may have captured the public's imagination and succeeded in regaining the initiative "momentarily," many remained unconvinced that such boldness would be sufficient to revive his candidacy. A number of analysts pointed out that the Kansas senator was still lagging far behind in opinion polls, and even after his announcement, some asserted, American voters "still do not know what Dole believes in." Other commentators maintained that in the American political process, "image"--like it or not--is important, and that Senator Dole's "gamble is...to make this election less of a vote on politics...and more about character"--and may just work. One European writer judged, "His all-out bet reinforces the image of honesty and courage which Bob Dole wants to project against a president whose moral stature is questioned by part of the electorate." Antwerp's financial Financieel-Economische Tijd concluded, however, "The question now is whether [Dole] will succeed in presenting a more convincing agenda with which he can make one of his remarks...come true: 'I want to cure your pain.'" Several pundits once again cautioned against predicting a November winner, noting the history of American electoral surprises. An Argentine daily warned, "There are no guarantees that the factors now favoring the Democrats will be extended and maintained throughout the campaign in the autumn." Meanwhile, some editorials focused on the Republican front runner's attitude on foreign policy issues: e.g., Cuba and Asia. Senator Dole's reported promise to Cuban immigrants in Florida to "oust" Castro after a Republican win in November was viewed by European observers as a "scandalous contradiction of the principles of international law." Madrid's independent El Mundo remarked: "Dole has always maintained a radical anti-Castro position, but had never gone so far as he did in Miami." Singapore's pro- government Business Times covered Mr. Dole's speech earlier this month at CSIS in Washington on the "Dole doctrine for Asia." The paper was unimpressed, contending that the senator's approach--"similar to Mr. Clinton's"--was a "confused mixture of policies aimed at placating political constituencies, interest groups and bureaucratic players.... At worst, if [Dole] attempts to implement his hawkish stands on China, North Korea and Vietnam, he is bound to weaken, not restore, U.S. leadership in the Pacific." This survey is based on 27 reports from 12 countries, May 16-21. EUROPE BRITAIN: "The White House Or Bust" The conservative Daily Telegraph (5/17) commented, "Mr. Robert Dole's resignation from the U.S. Senate in order to stake all upon the Republican presidential campaign was an act of breathtaking boldness. In what was perhaps the most effective address of his long public career, the Kansan told his compatriots that he would have 'nowhere to go but the White House or home'--in other words, up or out.... Considering Washington's highly porous political culture, Mr. Dole did very well to achieve complete surprise. More important still, he is no longer obliged to spend much of his time mired in the Washingtonian legislative swamp.... Above all, if yesterday's performance is anything to go by, he can still find the vocabulary to distinguish himself from President Clinton." "Dole's Surprise" The independent Financial Times (5/17) held, "To say that Mr. Dole's renunciation of his Senate seat has now put him back in the race would be wrong, for two reasons. First, it is not clear yet that this move has changed the dynamics of the campaign. Second, it was premature to assume that Mr. Dole was out of the race before he made it. In breaking away from the Republican majority in Congress, now seen as extreme and fractious, Mr. Dole has done something necessary, though not sufficient, to revive his candidacy. In resigning not only the majority leadership but his Senate seat, he has for once caught the public imagination with a grand gesture and so regained the initiative, at least momentarily. And with the help of a new speechwriter, he also showed that he can sometimes strike the right note." "A Former Senator From Kansas" The liberal Guardian (5/17) observed, "Mr. Dole's friends have applauded his decision, comparing him variously to an unhooded falcon and a soaring eagle. Yet his reputation and experience has been so much centered in the Senate that no one really knows if he is capable of spreading his wings." "Dramatic, Desperate" Private ITN (5/16) said, "This was a dramatic and perhaps even desperate move by Dole to revive his candidacy. It is a gamble for him. He needed the Senate role as a forum, but his faltering campaign needed a dramatic move to capture the public's imagination. However, those in the know believe it will make little difference." "And Now For The Real Contest " The centrist Independent (5/16) said, "Now he is free, relaunching his campaign, and cutting loose from a Congress whose unpopularity has been a prime reason for his own.... To the relief of Republicans across the land and of a political press corps bored out of its mind, the real contest is now to start. And if the cameo appearance by Mr. Dole yesterday is any indication, it could yet be a cracker." "Dole's Great Gamble" The Guardian (5/16) remarked, "It was the act of a desperate man.... Even Elizabeth Dole was demanding some 'adult supervision' of her husband's campaign team, which is out of money, out of ideas and increasingly out of the running.... Having been defeated on his chosen ground of Capitol Hill, Mr. Dole is now trying to challenge Mr. Clinton on the campaigning territory which the president has made his own." "Stroke Of Genius Or Desperate Act To Rescue Troubled Campaign" Washington correspondent Jurek Martin commented in the Financial Times (5/16), "Yesterday saw the emergence of the new Bob Dole, wet to the point of blinking back tears where he had been as dry as the most arcane Senate subcommittee, eloquent where he had been epigrammatic, humble in his appeal to his fellow countrymen where he had always been proud.... The presumed Republican candidate conceded he could not run for president from the Senate and certainly not from the demanding position of majority leader.... "The Dole gamble is, in effect, to make this election less of a vote on policies, his milieu but a losing proposition so far, and more about character. He will have to do something which he dislikes--talking about himself, where he comes from and what his values are--in order to make the case that he deserves preference over Mr. Clinton. Mr. Dole's action represents a strategic shift, which can be interpreted as a stroke of genius or an act of desperation." FRANCE: "Bob Dole Is Leaving The Senate" Conservative Le Figaro (5/17) asked, "Can (Bob Dole) win? His jerky voice contrasts with the smooth whispering of his Democratic rival. This handicap might be fatal during the TV debates which will feature the two candidates next fall. Mr. Dole tends to campaign on his morality. He is unquestionably one of the most respected politicians in the United States, including owing to his capacity to overcome the terrible wound he suffered in 1945 on the Italian front. But WWII seems to be a minor concern for a majority of voters. Mr. Dole, 72, will have to be imaginative in order to convince them to let him accompany them to the threshold of the 21st century." GERMANY: "Dole's Act of Desperation" Left-of-center Frankfurter Rundschau (5/17) said, "A glittering parliamentary career has come to an end.... Now because of his presidential ambitions, he has sacrificed his powerful positions to concentrate fully on his new goal.... One can even call this an act of desperation. The election campaign of the 72-year-old cannot get off the ground. He is 20 or 30 points behind the president in the polls. He can find no burning issues to set his campaign in motion and no presidential personality that would encourage the American people to put the country's highest office once more into the hands of a World War II veteran. During the next three months, in advance of the party convention, Dole must reduce the deficit in the polls in order to show the Republicans that it is worth standing by him in the election race. In other words, this was a very much needed end to Dole's parliamentary career that will, however, not in itself bring him any closer to the White House." "Forward Thinking" Right-of-center Die Welt of Berlin (5/17) carried the following commentary: "Bob Dole's decision...is the combination of a desperate move to improve the effectiveness of his campaign and a throughly logical and correct decision.... His strategy of using his position as majority leader to force Clinton on to the defensive by introducing new policies unacceptable to him proved a total failure. In fact, it turned out that the Democrats managed to turn these initiatives against him and, as result, created cracks in the Republican Party for all to see. Dole, currently 20 points behind in the polls, was losing the battle of Pennsylvania Avenue. As hard as it was for 'Mr. Washington' to leave office, it was the right decision. One must consider that if he does not make it to the White House, it is not conceivable that the 72-year- old could ever have continued on in his previous role. In other words, his 'retreat' is as forward-thinking as it is politically clever. He had nothing to lose. It is however not certain whether this will be enough to close the gap on Clinton and to convince voters that a new 'visionary' Dole is the man to take America into the next millennium. "At least he now has the chance to give 100 percent commitment to his goal. Maybe he made the decision at the right time." ITALY: "Leaving Senate May Be Politically Advantageous" Anna Guaita remarked from New York in centrist Il Messaggero (5/16), "Even among the Democrats there are some who believe that quitting the Senate may have several political advantages for Dole. First of all, he is showing voters how important the presidential campaign is for him.... Furthermore, the senator is distancing himself from Congress and the new Republican majority formed by young people who hold extreme positions." RUSSIA: "Dole's Dream Will Remain A Dream" Vadim Kotikov said in reformist, youth Komsomolskaya Pravda (5/21), "The old soldier Dole evidently does not know 'love words' to touch the American voter's heart.... In the few remaining months, the candidates can yet change not only the situation in the country but their own image as well. If Dole...stands a little chance in that respect, Clinton can do a lot indeed.... It seems that the senator's 36- year dream of the presidency will remain a dream for the rest of his life." BELGIUM: "Bob Dole Undergoes Metamorphosis" New York correspondent John van Roosendaal wrote in financial Financieel-Economische Tijd (5/18), "Whether one likes it or not, image is important in an American electoral campaign. With his surprising decision on Wednesday to leave the Senate no later that June 11, Dole started a metamorphosis which should turn Clinton's clear lead into victory for Dole in the November 5 presidential elections.... Dole also made it clear that he is capable of making drastic decisions without brooding over the issue for weeks--in contrast to Clinton who endlessly weighs his words and too often opts for the road of least resistance.... Ultimately, things will depend on the electorate's perception. Clinton is receiving a lot of praise for his ostensible feeling of compassion for the ordinary citizen's concerns--symbolized by his statement 'I feel your pain' in the 1992 campaign. Dole is perceived as an honest man--a man who since Wednesday clearly has felt better than before. The question now is whether he will succeed in presenting a more convincing agenda with which he can make one of his remarks in his speech in Chicago come true: 'I want to cure your pain.'" "One Still Does Not Know What Dole Believes In" Francis Unwin wrote in conservative La Meuse/La Lanterne (5/18), "Sudden inspiration or beginning of panic, (Dole) has in any case found moving words--his first good speech-- to announce that the time had come for him to leave his functions. He will run without mandate or authority, as a simple citizen. 'It will be the White House or home.' The man who was once known for his devastating sense of humor was obviously moved.... This being the case, he is not saying a word about what his program would be if he were to be elected. One still does not know what Dole believes in. The numerous electoral meetings which he is about to hold across America will perhaps shed some light on this decisive element. But it is not absolutely certain. In the world's only superpower, presidential campaigns usually fly rather low." "It Will Be Difficult" Independent Le Soir (5/17) commented, "It will be difficult for Bob Dole to campaign as an 'outsider' against an incumbent and popular president because of the 'anti- Washington' climate prevailing in the country. His entourage emphasizes on the other hand that he will now be able to express his project, his 'vision.' Relieved of the requirement to coordinate future congressional compromises, Bob Dole should no longer have to explain political issues in terms of subcommittees and of amendments.... The other, not insignificant consequence of Bob Dole's 'coup' is to force the conservatives to fall in line with him. Giving up a career to which he has attached more than to anything else, he is entitled to expect the solidarity of Republicans who weakened him by displaying their divisions. Finally, in a campaign in which 'character' constantly appears as a benchmark, this all-out bet reinforces the image of honesty and courage which Bob Dole wants to project against a president whose moral stature is questioned by part of the electorate." BULGARIA: "Pre-election Warnings" Left-leaning Kontinent (5/21) observed, "Bob Dole promised Cuban immigrants in Florida to overthrow Castro's regime after he wins the election in November.... Dole's statement is a scandalous contradiction of the principles of international law. It's interesting in what way he will try to fulfill his promise. A military intervention will call forth worldwide protests, and it will be doomed to fail. On the other hand, the economic sanctions against Havana have not brought any substantial results, because it is only the United States that observes them. Moreover, Washington was accused of violating the regulations of the WTO and the UN General Assembly voted against the American economic sanctions.... However, it's good news that Dole's rating is 20% lower than Clinton's and he has almost no chance of becoming President even with the votes of the Cuban immigrants." SPAIN: "Dole Promises To Oust Castro" Independent El Mundo (5/21) ran this correspondent's report from Washington: "Dole did not explain how he intends to oust the one whom he called 'assassin' several times but, since the Helms-Burton act is in place and it reinforces the economic embargo, there are no alternatives to legally affect the Castro regime even more. This is why many of those present at the Miami meeting interpreted Dole's words as a clear reference to the use of force. Dole has always maintained a radical anti-Castro position but had never gone so far as he did in Miami." EAST ASIA SINGAPORE: "Dole's Asia Policy: Confused" The pro-government Business Times carried an opinion piece by Washington correspondent Leon Hadar (5/17), "Last week, I joined some of Washington's leading foreign policy hands, including former secretaries of state, members of Congress, think-tank analysts, government officials, columnists and television reporters, to cover...Bob Dole's long-awaited address on U.S. policy toward Asia. The mood at CSIS in Washington was one of excitement. It was supposed to be the best show in town, a political high noon--the presumptive Republican presidential candidate assaulting President Clinton's incoherent and inconsistent agenda in Asia and proposing a new blueprint for post-Cold War U.S. policy in the Pacific.... Unfortunately, Mr. Dole's grand foreign policy event ended up giving birth to a minor rhetorical muse.... Instead, Mr. Dole seemed to be just another Washington politician running for president and reciting the lines scripted for him by his many Asia advisers, who include such figures as Senator John McCain and former National Security aide Doug Paal. "In fact, Mr. Dole's foreign policy team and the Republican Party establishment, not unlike Mr. Clinton's diplomatic crew and the Democratic Party leadership, include a strange mix of opposing Asia and trade policy ideas: protectionists who want huge tariffs on China and Japan (Pat Buchanan) and free-traders who call for free-trade areas with Japan and Singapore (Steve Forbes); anti- communist figures like Jesse Helms who bash China and realpolitik types like Henry Kissinger who want to co-opt Beijing; internationalists such as Richard Lugar who stress U.S. military commitments in Asia, and isolationists like the young House Republicans who express skepticism over U.S. involvement in that region. "Not surprisingly, Mr. Dole sounded...too much like, well, President Clinton: talking from both sides of his mouth on China and Japan, supplying no real sense of leadership on Asia, and reaching for the safe political consensus on such controversial issues as Beijing trading status or relations with Vietnam. The Dole doctrine for Asia and his trade approach would, at best, be similar to those of Mr. Clinton--that is, a confused mixture of policies aimed at placating political constituencies, interest groups and bureaucratic players. At worst, if he attempts to implement his hawkish stands on China, North Korea and Vietnam, he is bound to weaken, not restore, U.S. leadership in the Pacific. In that case, America's partners in the region would start feeling nostalgic for the Clinton era." THAILAND: "Bob Dole's Kamikaze" Sensationalist Khao Sod opined (5/18), "Dole's persistent trailing after President Clinton by 20 percentage points in popularity rating for the past few months...had threatened to completely ruin his November presidential election bid if nothing was done.... While most Republicans viewed Dole's move as an act of a truthful and brave man, the Democrats viewed it as Dole's helplessness and hopelessness.... Political analysts, meanwhile, thought the resignation would benefit his campaign because it has freed him from Democrats' attacks at whatever he did and decided in the Senate." LATIN AMERICA ARGENTINA: "Dole Wants To Be 'Full Time'" Left-of-center Pagina 12 carried the following commentary (5/16): "Everything indicated that Dole had to strike a dramatic blow in some direction, whatever it could be, in a campaign that was dwindling so pathetically that it seemed it had no strength, not even to make it to the August convention. In brief we will see if the choice was a correct one, especially in terms of fund-raising: an extremely critical factor at present. Another key factor, especially for Republicans, is that Dole's resignation from the Senate means distancing himself from the radicalized conservatism of the legislature and from Newt Gingrich.... Insistently presented as 'extremists' by Democrats, Republicans need to confirm the image of moderation that Dole usually projects. Nevertheless, the negative alternatives surrounding his campaign and his bad position in the polls six months before the presidential elections, the lack of support from American women and the impression that Republicans are leaning too much to the right, does not mean that the outcome for the candidates has already been decided. In surveys, voters continue to have doubts regarding Clinton's honesty and convictions and keep insisting that the country is going in the wrong direction. Therefore there are no guarantees that the factors now favoring the Democrat will be extended and maintained throughout the campaign in the autumn." URUGUAY: "Polls Grant Clinton Advantage; But Sometimes Polls Fail" Leftist weekly Mate Amargo (5/16) commented, "Polls grant a significant advantage to President Clinton in the upcoming November elections, although the truth is that sometimes polls fail, even in the country which invented them and which makes more use of them (than any other country). A good product of the Sixties, and in deference to Kennedy-- one of the first ones to promote intervention in Southeast Asia--Clinton opposed the Vietnam War and (according to his political opponents) evaded, without any consequences, the (nation's) call to arms. These circumstances seem to have helped Clinton's career considerably in a country that was leavinig behind 'the Vietnam syndrome' to censure that war and consider it a lamentable mistake." "Dole: Fighting--Clinton-Style" Economic, conservative El Observador commented (5/16), "In the beginning, Bob Dole's strategy was based on his legislative performance, but as this didn't work he announced his decision to go out to shake hands with millions of voters, getting together with people in a coffee shop in Iowa, and having lunch with the truckers of Montana. In other words: he's trying to fight Clinton on his terms. Dole has realized just now that in the United States, you don't win the elections in Washington and that trying to beat Clinton at his own game has also turned out to be a very poor strategy." --------------- --------------- FREE OFFER FROM PUBLISHER "CLIP" NEWS SERVICE INEWS DAILY IS NOW AVAILABLE THROUGH E-MAIL FREE TRIAL LOW COST ROYALTY FREE REPRODUCTION RIGHTS AVAILABLE International News E-Wire Service (INEWS) is an English language daily, covering news of the world. INEWS provides up-to-date and accurate world news. 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