Can Clinton win in '92?  The Republicans have, save for '76, won 
every presidential election since '72.  What might this election 
hold?  At first glance the odds for an upset seem long.  Both 
parties have states which, based on elections in the past two 
decades, they can count on winning.  The solid Republican states 
just happen to add up to almost a majority of the electoral college, 
so that Bush needs just a few of the "swing states" to win, while 
Clinton needs them all.

I enjoy looking at possible electoral college outcomes, so I put
together a Microsoft Excel worksheet useful in this idle guessing.
The worksheet is organized as follows:  The first column lists the
states (plus D.C.).  The next three columns give the electoral college
votes to be received by Clinton, Bush, and Perot.  The next two 
columns give the popular vote received by Dukakis and Bush in '88.  
The last column gives the percentage difference of the popular vote, 
calculated as 2*(Bush - Dukakis)/(Bush + Dukakis).  The last two rows 
give the totals.

Two worksheets are included.  88.XLS is the base model.  In it, Clinton's
votes are those received by Dukakis in 1988, and Perot wins no states.  
This makes a good starting point for guessing at this year's outcome.  To 
explore what might happen, move (not copy!) votes from one column to 
another.  States with low numbers in the percentage difference column are
good candidates to jump from Bush to Clinton or vice versa.  Other changes
can be arrived at from current events or your own political savy.

My own wild speculation is in 92.XLS.  In this scenario, all is as in 1988,
except Clinton wins California (absolutely required for a Clinton win), his
home state, some bordering states, and the rust belt states.  Perot manages
to win his home state of Texas.  The results in the college are:  Bush wins
259, Cinton wins 250, and Perot wins 29.  Nobady gets more than 50%, so the 
matter is referred to the House of Representatives, which promptly elects 
Cinton president.  Thus, although Bush get more college and (probably) 
popular votes, Clinton becomes president.  (Perhaps if this happens we will
finally amend the Constitution to make the President electable by the popular
vote and abolish the electoral college.)

I should note in passing that I am not a supporter of Bush, Clinton, or
Perot, and that this work is not tied to any campaign or political party.

Anyway, I hope you enjoy these worksheets.  I would enjoy hearing any comments.
These may be sent to my CIS address:  73777,3273.  This entire work is
dedicated to the public domain.


Jim Hughes
5/6/92