AMERICAN EXPRESS COMPANY 9/17/93 52-Wk-Rng FY/Q EPS93 EPS94 PE94 NxtQtr LyQtr American Expr 34.00 34-20 12/3 2.80 3.05 11.1 0.75 -0.45 AXP FS YR Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec March June Sept Dec Annual XXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX 1994 3.05 1993 0.49A 0.83A 0.75 0.73 2.80 1992 0.51A 0.63A -0.45A 0.51A 1.20A 1. Analysts believe the credit card industry remains one of financial services' most attractive. Earnings estimates are being driven upward by accelerating card receivable growth as smaller niches gain share and benefit from a gradual strengthening in the domestic economy. 2. Analysts are raising estimates by $0.10 for 1993 and $0.05 for 1994 at American Express for different reasons, to $2.80 and $3.05. These reasons include a growing confidence on declining provisions and expenses at TRS and a growing confidence that Lehman will continue to operate relatively surprise free. At current prices American Express shares sell at 12.1 times and 11.0 times respectively 1993 and 1994 estimates. 3. Analysts see little risk to their 1993 estimates at this juncture given the fact that high delinquencies and provisions continue to moderate and TRS has added flexibility to further reduce its reserves modestly. Analysts caution that earnings benefits from declining reserves will dissipate over the balance of this year, and eventually management needs to reverse relatively weak comparative trends in operating fundamentals. Barring this, there is little of the operating visibility and growth inherent in pure credit card companies such as MBNA and First USA. For instance, cards outstanding are projected to decrease 2%-3% this year and hold flat next year. Merchant discount fees remain under pressure and continued improvement in spending per card will be at least partially offset by reduced merchant discount rates which are expected to limit TRS's net revenue growth to low single digits. 4. Analysts are impressed with the spirit, style, focus and innovative approach of American Express' new management as it attempts to strengthen and enhance a single world-wide brand name. There will likely be a number of new initiatives by management in the months ahead such as the introduction of a new corporate procurement card, and an even greater visibility in strengthening card acceptance particularly at retail establishments through significant and selective reductions in discount rates, or more dramatic competitive thrusts. 5. However, in sum, it is thought the slight discount to faster growing card niches remains more than justified. Analysts think the rebuilding process is on track but they remain concerned about near term asset, card and spending growth visibility, particularly if the domestic economy continues to recover in a lackluster way and if weak conditions in Asian and European economies limit growth opportunities.