UNION CARBIDE 7/30/93 52-Wk-Rng FY/Q EPS93 EPS94 PE94 NxtQtr LyQtr Union Carbide 18.75 20-12 12/3 0.90 1.25 15.0 0.21 0.18 UK 1. 2Q EARNINGS OF $0.24 WERE BETTER THAN ANALYSTS' ESTIMATES largely due to higher income from companies in which Carbide had an equity position and due to lower "other expense" and lower depreciation. EBITD from core operations was actually lower than expected by $11 million. In aggregate a roughly $7 million pretax loss from an asset sale was largely offset by unusually low depreciation and interest expense. Carbide expects these last two items to revert to higher levels in the second half of 1993 compared to the second quarter levels. 2. The recently completed sale of the silicons business will have a net- net dilutive effect of $0.03-$0.04 per share each quarter compared to the first and second quarters of 1993. While that business earned very little in last year's first half, it has been a very good contributor year to date, thus next year's first half will have a tougher comparison year over year. 3. Core business trends remain weak contrary to the tone of today's Wall Street Journal article. New capacity additions will likely keep margins depressed. For its part, Carbide expects to add roughly 100 million pounds per year (partly ethylene) capacity in Quebec by early 1994. Formosa's 530 million pounds per year ethylene glycol and 450 million pounds per year HDPE plants start up in the next few weeks followed next year by 1.5 billion ethylene and a 500 million pound LLDPE plant. 4. Cash flow is trending a bit below budget. Year to date operations have been cash negative to the tune of $50-$60 million Capital spending will likely run $10 million below budget this year at $350 million, but next year's spending is likely to be $400-$425 million (vs. our $400 million earlier estimate). 1995 spending will likely exceed 1994 levels as spending for the Kuwait mega project starts. SHARES OUTSTANDING CONTINUE TO DRIFT UPWARDS TO 155 MILLION BY THE END OF SECOND QUARTER 1993. 5. WHERE IS THE GOOD NEWS? FIXED COST CONTINUES TO DRIFT DOWNWARDS. SG&A plus R&D was $7 million below year ago in the first half (full year 1992 was $34 million below 1991; second half 1992 was $2 million below year ago). Interest expense is down $56 million is the first half of 1993 vs. year ago; will be expected to be $17 million lower in the second half of 1993 vs. year ago. MARGINS IN POLYETHYLENE AND ETHYLENE GLYCOL HAVE LITTLE OR NO ROOM LEFT TO FALL. VALUATION Multiple UK DOW LYO CUE(1) S&P500 1994 EBITD 6.0 7.0 13.0 7.1 NA 1993 Gross Cash Flow 8.9 7.9 29.4 6.2 9.0 Normalized EBITD 4.3 4.8 3.9 3.3 NA 1994 P/E 15.0 19.9 88.2 NM 14.9 Yield,% 4.0 4.3 5.1 0.0 3.0 (1) Hanson has bid to acquire this company.