Document 0465
 DOCN  M9440465
 TI    Quantitative estimates for the effects of AIDS public education on HIV
       infections.
 DT    9404
 AU    Fan DP; Department of Genetics and Cell Biology, University of
       Minnesota,; St. Paul 55108.
 SO    Int J Biomed Comput. 1993 Nov;33(3-4):157-77. Unique Identifier :
       AIDSLINE MED/94140461
 AB    Previous projections of HIV infection have not accounted explicitly for
       AIDS public information. The present analysis does so, using computer
       content analysis of AIDS news stories to make time trend forecasts of
       both HIV infection and knowledge, attitudes, and sexual behaviors
       relevant to AIDS. The data show that there was a rapid rise in
       infections before public information took effect. Then news about AIDS,
       its modes of transmission and high risk groups led to a 3-4-fold
       decrease in high risk sex among gay/bisexual men by the late 1980s. The
       result was a diminished infection rate saving 580,000 to 1.9 million
       lives. In more recent times, rates of HIV infection are forecast to
       increase again, although slowly, in small part because people are less
       prudent and in large part because the pool of infected individuals has
       greatly expanded.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION &
       CONTROL/TRANSMISSION  Attitude to Health  Disease Susceptibility
       Forecasting  Health Behavior  Health Education/*STATISTICS & NUMER DATA
       Homosexuality  Human  HIV Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION &
       CONTROL/TRANSMISSION  Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice  Male  Mass Media
       Models, Statistical  Persuasive Communication  Risk Factors  Sex
       Behavior  Software  Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.  United
       States/EPIDEMIOLOGY  JOURNAL ARTICLE

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
       protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).