Document 0857
 DOCN  M9440857
 TI    [Prevalence of HIV infection in France before the introduction of early
       treatment: estimation by back-calculation]
 DT    9404
 AU    Rude N; Costagliola D; Valleron AJ; B3E, INSERM SC4, Faculte de Medecine
       Saint-Antoine, Universite; Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France.
 SO    Rev Epidemiol Sante Publique. 1993;41(6):437-46. Unique Identifier :
       AIDSLINE MED/94126527
 AB    In order to estimate the cumulative number of adults infected with Human
       Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in France, the method of backcalculation
       was applied. This method assumes that the incubation period is constant
       over time, but the therapies administered since May 1987 among Acquired
       Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS)-free HIV seropositive, extend the
       incubation period. It is obvious that if AIDS incidence counts beyond
       June 1987 are included in the backcalculation, this may lead to
       underestimation of the number of HIV infected subjects. For this reason
       we focused our study on estimates obtained from AIDS cases diagnosed
       until June 30, 1987. For each estimate we made the hypothesis of an
       average incubation time of 11 years (i.e. period between time of
       infection and onset of AIDS). We also examined the sensitivity of the
       results, with distributions of average incubation periods of 9 to 13
       years. A plausible range (PR) was systematically calculated: it takes
       into account the imprecisions arising from model adjustment and from
       uncertainties regarding distribution of incubation period. Thus, the
       total number of infected people in France up to June 30, 1987, was
       estimated at 142,300 (PR: 82,200 to 240,600), corresponding to an
       infection rate of 0.42 (PR: 0.24% to 0.71%) for the population between
       15 and 59 years of age. Estimations were also calculated according to
       sex for some transmission groups: homosexuals, injecting drug users and
       heterosexuals.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Adolescence  Adult
       English Abstract  Female  France/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Homosexuality  Human  HIV
       Infections/DRUG THERAPY/*EPIDEMIOLOGY  HIV Seropositivity/EPIDEMIOLOGY
       Male  Middle Age  Models, Statistical  Prevalence  Sex Behavior
       Substance Dependence/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Support, Non-U.S. Gov't  Time Factors
       JOURNAL ARTICLE

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