THE WIRED FUTURE
                            PART FIVE

                     The Innocent Bystanders
                                by
                          Robert Parson


     As can be expected as we move closer and closer to a fully 
electronically connected society, there will be victims.  And as 
is usually the case, those victims will be the innocent 
bystanders.
     The most obvious victim is going to be newspaper.  Already, 
newspapers have undergone some dramatic changes in order to 
compete in today's world.  Many afternoon papers have become 
morning papers in order to better compete.  They have also 
undergone some face lifts.  20 years ago, most newspapers looked 
like slight variations of the New York Times.  Now most of them 
look like slight variations of USA Today.
     But despite the changes to make newspapers more accessible to 
subscribers, readership, and revenue,  is down considerably.  
Every year more and more newspapers are forced to shut down.
     The easy suspect in the coming death of newspaper is 
Television.  Although much of the blame can be placed on 
television, a bigger part of it can be placed on society as a 
whole.
     As our society becomes more information driven, immediate 
access to that information becomes more important.  Waiting until 
the next morning to find out what happened the night before can be 
too late.
     The Newspaper Industry is well aware of the coming of the 
Connected Nation.  They fought in the early 1920s in order to stop 
Radio Stations from airing commercial messages.  But the 
Government agreed with the broadcasters.  Radio had to have some 
method in which to pay for the gathering of information.
     They are among those fighting now to keep the Telephone 
Industry out of the Information Industry.  Generally, the 
Newspaper Industry feels allowing the Phone Industry in could 
create a powerful information monopoly.
     It could.  But as we've seen with the breakup of the AT&T 
system, the proper approach to allowing the Phone Industry into 
the Information Industry will, arguably, allow for greater choice, 
higher quality, and competitive pricing.
     Newspapers will not completely die out.  We see some of the 
future of newspaper in USA Today.  The newspaper of the future 
will be more feature oriented with fewer "hard" news stories and 
have an easier to read, brighter layout.  In addition, the number 
of newspapers will eventually dwindle to a few national papers, 
such as USA Today and the Wall Street Journal, and a number of 
regional papers.
     Instead, what will serve as the local newspaper is a local 
Electronic MultiMedia News Vendor (EMNV, for short) with full text 
retrieval, full motion video and multichannel life-like sound.
     This implies that Broadcast News as we now it know will also 
die.  This is quite likely, but not just because our EMNV more 
than adequately will handle our local news and public affairs 
needs more efficiently.  Broadcasting will probably die out as 
well.  Just as with newspapers, there will be a few regional 
broadcasters serving mainly those who cannot become connected 
somehow.
     This is because eventually all our information and 
entertainment needs will be handled through our one Information 
Appliance, with probably a portable Information Appliance in our 
vehicles, and the services we subscribe to.
     Where does the local BBS fit in all this?  Somewhere in the 
middle.
     CompuServe, GEnie, Prodigy and the others are at the 
forefront of providing the national services.  The local BBSs are 
on the cutting edge of the local service.
     There will soon come a time when an entrepreneur will begin 
offering local news and information to local subscribers for a 
price.  These entrepreneurs will be able to provide the quality of 
national service information with the flexibility and immediacy to 
handle local needs.  They will become our EMNV.
     BBSs as they currently exist will eventually become the 
equivalent of the neighborhood convenience store.  They may have 
what's needed quickly, but for serious "shopping," users will need 
to access the "Information Supermarket."
     Should we mourn the deaths of Print and Broadcast Media?  No.  
This is part of the evolution of access to information.  Nobody 
mourned when scribes began distributing handwritten copies of epic 
poetry.  Nobody mourned when the printing press replaced 
handwritten manuscripts.  Nobody mourned when newspapers usurped 
the need for the Town Crier.
     At sometime, the differences between telephone, cable, 
television, radio and newspaper will become inconsequential.  Even 
further down the road, all those forms of media will undergo dramatic 
transformations and possibly become non-existent as the technology of 
the connected society advances.
     The manner in which information is distributed, though, is 
not important.  It is the information itself that is important.  
     It doesn't matter who is for or against the Connected Nation.  
It will not come about because it's possible.  It will come about 
because the consumer will want it.  The marketplace will determine 
how information is accessed.
     The future is Connected.
                                             (c)1992 Robert Parson