Ken Deen's THE AGGRESSIVE TRADER BUY/SELL ALERT 1339 Virginia Rd. Vol. 1, No. 71 Montecito, CA 93108 July 29, 1992 (805) 565-2039 8:58am ET CompuServe: 72020,2050 Stock+Options Account: * SELL Freeport McMoran Aug. 20 puts (symbol: FTXTD). Today I sold 10 puts at 1. I bought these on April 28 at a split-adjusted price of 1 15/16. (At that time they were 5 Aug. 40 puts. See Vol.1 #43.) * BUY Chrysler Corp. (NYSE: C). Today I bought 200 Chrysler at 22. * BUY Russ Berrie & Co. (NYSE: RUS). Today I bought 150 RUS at 28 1/2. Model Portfolio: No trades Deen Earnings Surprise System: No trades The DESI-3 timing system is giving a green light for July 29. Market Commentary Yesterday's 1.6% gain in the Dow and 1.2% gain in the Nasdaq on high volume were convincing enough to place me firmly in the bullish camp. The S&P 500 has reached an important resistance level at 418; there appears to be enough momentum to break this resistance, probably sometime this week. Discussion: Freeport McMoran I am taking a loss on my FTX puts because: * I am bullish on the market overall; * these puts expire in a few weeks; and * Freeport McMoran released a strong earnings report yesterday (earnings were up 220% at 16 cents vs. 5 cents last year). Discussion: Chrysler Corp. Yesterday, Chrysler checked in with a second-quarter profit of 54 cents per share, far exceeding Wall Street expectations of around 32 cents. This contrasts with a loss of 95 cents a share in the year earlier period. The market reaction was extremely strong. Chrysler was the most active stock on the Big Board yesterday, and the positive surprise was a major factor in fueling the impressive 52-point rally in the Dow. Turnover, at 6.1 million shares, was almost three times average. Equally important, yesterday's action was a technical breakout from a 3-month trading range. 1993 earnings estimates called for a profit of around $2.30 a share; that was before yesterday's big surprise. I expect these estimates to be revised upward. Even using the old estimate of $2.30, Chrysler's stock, at $22, is selling for less than 10 times '93 earnings. This represents a good value. Discussion: Russ Berrie & Co. Russ Berrie is a wholesaler of stuffed animals, mugs, cards, dolls, and other gift items to over 100,000 retail outlets. Russ Berrie has shown strong earnings and sales acceleration in the last two quarters, and they have an earnings report due out in about two weeks. Earnings estimates for 1992 have been revised dramatically upward recently. Last April, estimates called for a 1992 profit of around $1.80 a share; recently, estimates have been around $3.20 a share. The most recent quarter shows an earnings jump of 760% (86 cents vs. 10 cents). The prior quarter saw a 105% gain in earnings (43 cents vs. 21 cents). The earnings report due soon has an easy comparison -- a loss of 7 cents in the April-to-June 1991 quarter. Technically, the stock appears to be bouncing off of a support level of $25. The stock sold off from $37 in late May to a low of $25 in late June. From there it went up to about $29, then came back down and re-tested $25 last week. This week, it has been climbing off of that double bottom. Prior to this June correction, the stock had more than doubled from December 1991 levels. My technical indicators suggest that the stock is starting to resume its upward march. From a valuation standpoint, the stock is cheap. It is selling for 14 times trailing earnings, and 9 times estimated '92 earnings. Normally, I buy after an earnings surprise; in this case, I am anticipating a probable surprise. -END-