MERCK 3/23/94 Stock Latest 52 week YTD Pr Div Gross Rating Price --- Range --- Chg Rate Yield Merck & Co. MP 30.50 40-28 -11 1.12 3.7 Est. - Interim EPS - -EBITDA 94- FY/IP EPS93 EPS94 PE94 --Next- -YrAgo- per/sh p/e MRK 12/01Q 2.39R 2.40 12.7 0.55 0.54 n/a n/a Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), 1993 $2.39, 1994 $2.40, Market Performer Analysts continue to maintain 1994 earnings of $2.40 versus $2.39 in 1993; the estimate includes cuts in discretionary spending and head count related to the merger and the changing distribution characteristics of the industry. Analysts continue to rate Merck stock a market performer at current levels. The weakness in Merck and Bristol Myers Squibb shares related to the Sandoz announcement of a 50% discount on their cholesterol drug (which is in the same class as Merck's Mevacor and BMY's Pravachol) confirms that the gross margins of the pharmaceutical industry are declining from their current 75% average level towards 50%-60% range as price wars (rebates, discounts, and undercutting on capitation contracts) continue. 1. The threat of price wars, therapeutic substitution and generic substitution was precisely the reason that led Merck to purchase Medco. The decline in gross margins will only be fueled more by undercutting on capitation contracts to secure head count. He who controls head count will control the marketplace. 2. Gross margins will continue to decline towards the 50%-60% level. Analysts believe that investors must focus on operating margin expansion and operating income growth to value the growth prospects of the pharmaceutical industry. Analysts continue to expect large cuts in discretionary spending and head count that will follow the impending horizontal and vertical integration within the health care industry to drive the operating income growth. Thus, until the business and the P&L of the pharmaceutical industry are rewritten, the stocks should continue to languish during the transition period, supported primarily by dividend payout and yield. 3. Analysts expect that before Merck cuts the price of Mevacor, it will try to leverage Mevacor in bundling strategies by combining it with a package of cheaper drugs and offer the customer/client a cheaper overall package of drugs. Merck will also attempt to distinguish Mevacor's better efficacy strategy and LDL or bad cholesterol lowering ability versus Sandoz's drug, in the marketplace. Nonetheless, all the price shifting strategies and distinguishing characteristics may only slow the inevitable decline in Mevacor's price and profit contribution, and the gross margin. Until the steep cuts in discretionary spending and head count related to the merger are forthcoming, Merck's earnings growth may continue to remain under pressure.