UNION CARBIDE 1/28/94 Stock Price 52 week YTD Pr Div Gross Rating 1/27 --- Range --- Chg Rate Yield Union Carbide Corp. MO 24.88 26-16 11 0.75 3.0 ----Interim---- 1994E pr/94 FY/IP EPS93 EPS94 PE94 --Next- -YrAgo- EBITDA EBITDA UK 12/01Q 1.00 1.25E 19.9 n/a n/a 3.81 6.5 1. 4Q EPS of $0.25 exceeded analysts' $0.17 estimate. Lower raw material prices have helped. Cost cutting is ahead of our expectations. This explains half of the surprise. The rest is for less desired reasons. a) 4Q interest expense was unusually low by $4 million pretax due to one- time interest rate swap realizations. Despite lower debt, UK says its 1994 interest expense will equal 1993 levels of roughly $70 million. b) 4Q income from UOP (a joint venture with Allied-Signal) was well above normal levels UK says such levels cannot be maintained. Full year 1993 UOP pretax contribution is estimated to be slightly over $65 million vs $60 million in 1992. Look for a 7-10% increase in 1994. This income is included in the 'other expense(income)' line item. c) 4Q tax rate of 30.5% was below expectations. Full year 1993 was 34.4% UK expects 31% for 1994. The lower 4Q 1993 and full year 1994 rates are temporary. So long as the base petrochemical business (Union Carbide Chemicals and Plastics) makes little or no money, the use of foreign sales corporations and R&D tax credits bring down the tax rate. The sustainable rate longer term is closer to 35%. 2. CARBON PRODUCTS, HOWEVER, HAS RECOVERED. THIS HAS BEEN THE KEY STORY FOR 1993 AND WILL BE FOR 1994, despite a 4Q 1993 aberration from unusually high expenses. Carbide's 50% in this JV contributed an estimated $14 million net income in 1993 vs a $16 million loss in 1992, a favorable swing of $30 million. We look for another $20 million to $25 million increase in 1994 with potential for a further $5 or $10 million in 1995 or 1996. 3. WE ESTIMATE 4Q UNDERLYING EARNINGS TO BE $0.22/SHARE, CORRECTING FOR the positives and negatives mentioned above. 4Q1993 4Q 1993 4Q 1992 4Q 1992 Reported Underlying(a) Year ago Underlying 1. Pretax before 62 62 58 58 items below UOP income (a) 25 17 18 15 Other expense(a) (15) (15) (22) (15) Other(expense)income, total 10 2 4 0 Interest expense (13) (17) (23) (23) 2. Pretax income 59 47 31 35 tax rate 30.5% 34% 26% 34% tax (18) (16) (8) (12) 3. Net Income 41 31 23 23 Equity investments 3 8 4 4 (carbon products) 4. Net income - Total 44 39 19 19 5. EPS,fully diluted $0.25 $0.22 $0.12 $0.12 (a) our estimated breakdown. 4. We continue to estimate $1.25 earnings for 1994 based on Carbon products recovery and the lingering benefits of cost cutting. Base business continues to languish but has good upside late in the decade.