Document 0445
 DOCN  M9490445
 TI    [Short-term prediction of cases of AIDS in Catalonia (1991-1994)]
 DT    9411
 AU    Vall Mayans M; Zunzunegui Pastor MV; Casabona Barbara J; Departamento de
       Sanidad y Seguridad Social, Generalitat de; Catalunya, Barcelona.
 SO    Gac Sanit. 1994 Jan-Feb;8(40):3-10. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE
       MED/94333992
 AB    Predicting AIDS incidence is a useful strategy for health service
       planning and for the design of preventive and control programmes. The
       different predictive mathematical models of AIDS can be classified in
       simple and complex, according to the assumptions used. The present study
       presents the prediction of the minimum AIDS incidence in Catalonia for
       the period 1991-94 by means of three simple mathematical models. The
       models that have been compared are the projection method of Chin and
       Lwanga, the retroprojection method of Brookmeyer and Gail, and the
       extrapolation method of Cox and Medley. Baseline information about AIDS
       cases comes from the AIDS Registry of the Generalitat of Catalonia. In a
       comparable manner, the three methods point out an increase of AIDS
       incidence until 1994, varying from 1160 to 1733 new cases in that year
       depending on the method used. We conclude that it will be necessary to
       increase the provision of health, social and preventive resources
       against AIDS in Catalonia in the coming years.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION &  CONTROL
       Comparative Study  English Abstract  Female  Forecasting  Human  HIV
       Infections/EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION & CONTROL  Incidence  Male  Models,
       Theoretical  Prevalence  Spain/EPIDEMIOLOGY  JOURNAL ARTICLE

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