Document 0592
 DOCN  M94A0592
 TI    Trend analysis & back-protection analysis of Qld HIV data.
 DT    9412
 AU    Magon H; Ree GH; Kennedy J; Cornell V; AIDS Medical Unit, Brisbane.
 SO    Annu Conf Australas Soc HIV Med. 1993 Oct 28-30;5:90 (poster no. 31).
       Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE ASHM5/94349063
 AB    Two widely popular methods for predicting the future incidence of AIDS
       cases were applied to the Queensland HIV database. Trend analysis gave
       high to low estimates of AIDS cases & deaths. Estimated new AIDS cases
       over the three year period 1993 to 1995 ranged from 258 to 348 with AIDS
       deaths ranging from 184 to 276. Several planning scenarios are possible.
       In the case of maximum deaths and minimum new cases the net number of
       AIDS patients in Queensland would decline by 18 over the three years
       1993 to 1995. Should the converse occur, i.e. maximum new cases and
       minimum deaths there could be 164 additional cases over this three year
       period. Back-projection analysis was used to estimate the number of HIV
       infection during the period 1982 to 1991. Our analysis shows the peak of
       the infection occurred in 1984 (392 cases) followed by 1985 (196 cases).
       The total pool estimated at 1383 to end 1991 (Queensland HIV database
       lists 1195 cases).
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/MORTALITY  Cause of
       Death  Forecasting  Human  HIV Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/MORTALITY  HIV
       Seroprevalence/*TRENDS  *Information Systems  Models, Statistical
       Queensland/EPIDEMIOLOGY  MEETING ABSTRACT

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
       protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).