Document 0596
 DOCN  M94A0596
 TI    Modelling the HIV epidemic, results from a three year project.
 DT    9412
 AU    Kault D; Dept. Maths & Stats, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld.
 SO    Annu Conf Australas Soc HIV Med. 1993 Oct 28-30;5:88 (poster no. 27).
       Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE ASHM5/94349059
 AB    HIV spreads through a network of sexual contacts. Sexual behaviour
       surveys give insufficient information about this network to allow
       predictions of the spread of HIV. However, this information is encoded
       in the detailed epidemiology of other STDs as these have spread through
       the same network now available for HIV. Mathematical models allow
       decoding of this and other aspects of HIV epidemiology and enable long
       term predictions of the course of the epidemic and the efficiencies of
       interventions. Modelling shows that the marked decline in incidence of
       gonorrhea and new cases of HIV infection in communities affected by AIDS
       can be explained by the natural history of the epidemic without
       behavioural change. It is predicted that HIV will become endemic and
       there will probably be a heterosexual epidemic in Australia. Modelling
       also shows that general condom promotion and removal of HIV, positives
       from risky sexual activity are in theory equally effective preventive
       strategies. Reducing partner change rates is less effective in the
       medium term. Targeting preventive interventions at STD clinic attendees
       will be effective only when a small epidemic is expected. Reintroducing
       routine neonatal circumcision may be an important overlooked weapon in
       long term anti-HIV strategies.
 DE    Circumcision  Cross-Sectional Studies  *Disease Outbreaks  Female
       Gonorrhea/EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION  Human  HIV
       Infections/EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION & CONTROL/*TRANSMISSION  Incidence
       Infant, Newborn  Male  *Models, Statistical  Patient Care Team
       Pregnancy  Sex Behavior  MEETING ABSTRACT

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