Document 0909
 DOCN  M94A0909
 TI    Estimation of the number of HIV-positive subjects and prediction of
       future transfusion-associated AIDS cases in Italy.
 DT    9412
 AU    Cascioli R; Arcieri R; Bellocco R; Schinaia N; Istituto Superiore di
       Sanita', Rome, Italy.
 SO    Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(2):253 (abstract no. PC0377). Unique
       Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94371666
 AB    OBJECTIVES: To estimate the number of subjects who have acquired a
       Transfusion-Associated (T-A) infection and to provide forecasts of the
       number of T-A AIDS cases to be diagnosed in Italy in the next years.
       METHODS: Study subjects were all the T-A AIDS cases reported to the
       Italian AIDS Operational Center by September 31, 1992 and diagnosed by
       December 31, 1991. We have included in the analysis the AIDS cases which
       have the recieval of a blood transfusion as the only risk factor. Those
       who have received blood transfusion abroad, the pediatric cases, the
       subjects associated with multiple transfusion and those of an unknown
       date of transfusion or of a date after 1985, were eliminated. For the
       analysis we have used a truncated Weibull. RESULTS: Of a total of 176
       T-A AIDS cases diagnosed by the end of 1991 and notified by September
       1992, 90 cases were included in the analysis. The median incubation
       period was estimated at 10.3 years (90% IC 5.0-21.6). The estimated of
       the total number of adult infected by transfusion an prior to 1986 was
       349. The projected annual incidence of T-A AIDS in adults infected by
       transfusion was: 1992: 30; 1993: 31; 1994: 31; 1995: 29; 1996: 26; 1997:
       23; 1998: 19; 1999: 15; 2000: 12. CONCLUSIONS: The study indicates the
       peak in the incidence of T-A AIDS between 1992 and 1994. In the
       following years a decreasing trend of the T-A AIDS cases could be
       observed.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/EPIDEMIOLOGY/*TRANSMISSION  Adult
       Blood Transfusion/*ADVERSE EFFECTS  Forecasting  Human  HIV
       Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY  Italy/EPIDEMIOLOGY  MEETING ABSTRACT

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
       protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).