Document 2306
 DOCN  M94A2306
 TI    AIDS/HIV projection and optimal intervention strategies.
 DT    9412
 AU    McGrail LM; Moy EV
 SO    Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):334 (abstract no. PC0269). Unique
       Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370269
 AB    OBJECTIVE: To develop, for any geographical area, a method of
       calculating the optimal allocations of resources for the prevention of
       the spread of HIV. METHODS: Using easily understood discrete-time
       compartment models, projection of the spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is
       discussed. The concept of mathematically modeling interventions in the
       epidemic is introduced. Intervention models are combined with epidemic
       models in such a way that interventions can be viewed as controls of the
       epidemic. Discrete-time optimal-control theory is reviewed and used to
       calculate an optimal distribution of interventions for a given criterion
       and this distribution is referred to as an optimal intervention
       strategy. Example problems are formulated and solved with an eye to
       suggesting applications of this theory. RESULTS: Proper selection of
       optimality criteria enables, for a given geographic area, calculation
       of: the optimal distribution of intervention programs for a given total
       cost of interventions; or the optimal total cost and distribution of
       interventions to minimize the total cost, or total health care cost, of
       the epidemic; or the optimal total cost and distribution of
       interventions to reduce the loss of human life to a certain level.
       Applications to the calculation of optimal vaccination or cure
       administration schedules are also suggested. DISCUSSION: The method
       presented can be adapted to unexpected contingencies and can be combined
       with economic models and models of other diseases to form more
       comprehensive policy recommendations.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/EPIDEMIOLOGY/*PREVENTION &  CONTROL
       Cost-Benefit Analysis  Disease Outbreaks/*STATISTICS & NUMER DATA
       Economics  Forecasting  Health Care Rationing/*ECONOMICS  Health
       Policy/ECONOMICS  Human  HIV Infections/EPIDEMIOLOGY/*PREVENTION &
       CONTROL  HIV Seroprevalence/*TRENDS  Models, Statistical  MEETING
       ABSTRACT

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
       protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).