Document 2308
 DOCN  M94A2308
 TI    Simulation of a fuzzy mathematical model of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Japan.
 DT    9412
 AU    Morio S; Soda K; Hashimoto S; Fukutomi K; Shiomi S; Ichikawa S; Kamakura
       M; Dept. of Hygiene, Faculty of Medicine, Tottori University,;
       Yonago-shi, Japan.
 SO    Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):333 (abstract no. PC0265). Unique
       Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370267
 AB    OBJECTIVE: To analyse heterosexual HIV/AIDS transmission in Japan and to
       identify effective countermeasures against the HIV/AIDS epidemic with
       simulation of a fuzzy mathematical model. METHODS: The model was
       analysed on the assumptions; (1) the population was metropolitan
       residents of 20-30 years in Japan, (2) the population was divided into
       two male and two female groups, (3) some of a male group are infected
       with HIV abroad, return to Japan, (4) foreign HIV infected prostitutes
       come to Japan and enter a female group, (5) HIV is transmitted from a
       infected person to other persons through heterosexual intercourse. The
       results of the fuzzy model was compaired with the results of the
       sensitivity analysis of an usual un-fuzzy mathematical model. RESULTS:
       The model showed that about 55 foreign cases of AIDS (2 males, 53
       females) had escaped from the AIDS surveillance, and that transmission
       of HIV by foreigners was important factor of the epidemic.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION  Adult
       *Computer Simulation  Disease Outbreaks/*STATISTICS & NUMER DATA  Female
       Fuzzy Logic  Human  HIV Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION  HIV
       Seroprevalence/*TRENDS  Japan/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Male  *Models, Statistical
       Population Surveillance  Reproducibility of Results  MEETING ABSTRACT

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