Document 2310
 DOCN  M94A2310
 TI    HIV/AIDS in French Guiana: modelling the epidemic.
 DT    9412
 AU    Sobesky M; Nadal JM; Pradinaud R; CISIH, CHG of Cayenne, French Guiana.
 SO    Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):333 (abstract no. PC0266). Unique
       Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370265
 AB    OBJECTIVE: To project the number of HIV infections and cumulated AIDS
       cases in French Guiana through the year 2004. METHODS: the epidemic has
       been modelized separately for 2 groups, the haitian and the non haitian
       group. A reference scenario has been defined on the assumption that
       present trends will continue unchanged; pessimistic and optimistic
       scenarios have been also determined. For the haitian group, a linear
       method based on the last known incidence rate has been used and provides
       the number of cumulated AIDS cases, alternative scenarios are based on
       the incidence rate. For the non haitian group, a dynamic population
       model (D. PUZIN, A.J VALLERON) has been used; it provides an estimation
       of the number of HIV infected persons AIDS excluded, AIDS cases and
       deaths; alternative scenarios have been determined based on prophylactic
       therapies and prevention practices. RESULTS: Under the reference
       scenario, in 2004, the number of cumulated AIDS cases for the whole
       population would amount to 1330; in case of optimistic and pessimistic
       scenarios, this number would amount respectively to 1230 and 1500. The
       number of HIV infected patients AIDS excluded has been determined for
       the non haitian group; this number would amount 650 in 1993 then would
       decrease to 500 through the year 2004. In case of a pessimistic and
       optimistic scenarios, the number of HIV infected patients would amount
       respectively to 900 and 400. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The modelization
       of the HIV/AIDS epidemic including alternative scenarios will greatly
       help health managers and medical practitioners to project the medical
       and social needs for HIV infected patients. The results of modelling in
       our country are probably underestimated because the 2 groups have been
       modelized separately; furthermore they are strongly dependent on
       immigration. Some other models including immigration data and contacts
       between the haitian and the non haitian group should be used to
       determine accurately the HIV infected population in French Guiana.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/ETHNOLOGY/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/
       TRANSMISSION  Computer Simulation  *Developing Countries  Disease
       Outbreaks/*STATISTICS & NUMER DATA  Forecasting  French
       Guiana/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Haiti/ETHNOLOGY  Human  HIV
       Infections/ETHNOLOGY/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION  HIV
       Seroprevalence/*TRENDS  *Models, Statistical  Population Dynamics  Risk
       Factors  MEETING ABSTRACT

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
       protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).