Document 2312
 DOCN  M94A2312
 TI    Risk assessment of spread of STD (specifically, AIDS) by computer
       simulation.
 DT    9412
 AU    Kubo T; Shigemitsu S; Asaka M; Tsukuba University, Ibaraki, Japan.
 SO    Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):332 (abstract no. PC0264). Unique
       Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370263
 AB    OBJECTIVE: To study the relationship between the spread of STD and the
       sexual freedoms in a society (i.e. distribution of the number of each
       person's sexual partners in a society). METHODS: To investigate the size
       of a sexually connected group (SCG) and the distribution of the size of
       the groups in society by constructing SCG using computer simulation. The
       SCG is a group in which each member is directly or indirectly sexually
       connected and disconnected with persons from outside the group. The size
       of the group indicates risk of spread of all STD (but specifically
       AIDS). RESULTS: When the distribution of the number of sexual partners
       in a society with a given population of 100,000 is simulated by the
       following equation: p = (r-1)r-n where n is the number of sexual
       partners (= nsp) and r = 3 for men, r = 4 for women (which is most
       similar to the real situation in Japan), average size of the group to
       which a person with nsp = 2 and 8 belongs to are 13 and 48 respectively.
       When 100 commercial sex workers with nsp = 200 are added to this
       society, the average size of the group escalates to 5,200 and 13,000
       respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Mandatory testing of all commercial sex
       workers is therefore one of the essential countermeasures against the
       spread of STD.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/EPIDEMIOLOGY/*TRANSMISSION  Adult
       *Computer Simulation  Female  Human  Japan/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Male  *Models,
       Statistical  Prostitution/STATISTICS & NUMER DATA  Risk Factors  Sex
       Behavior  Sexual Partners  Sexually Transmitted
       Diseases/EPIDEMIOLOGY/*TRANSMISSION  MEETING ABSTRACT

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
       protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).