Document 2314
 DOCN  M94A2314
 TI    Prediction of the incidence of AIDS/HIV in Japan by Delphi method.
 DT    9412
 AU    Kamakura M; Shimada N; Ichikawa S; Soda K; Morio S; Fukutomi K;
       Hashimoto S; Shiomi S; Department of Preventive Medicine and Public
       Health, School of; Medicine, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan.
 SO    Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):332 (abstract no. PC0262). Unique
       Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370261
 AB    OBJECTIVE: The cumulative number of AIDS cases (685 as of Dec. 31, 1993)
       and HIV carriers (2496) in Japan are very small among developed
       countries. The coverage rate of the report of carriers in Japan is,
       however, always the point at issue. The object of this study is to
       estimate the incidence of AIDS/HIV now and in the near future and the
       related sociomedical issues by Delphi method, a technique of Operations
       Research. METHODS: One hundred and sixty-three specialists on AIDS
       research (microbiologists, clinicians, epidemiologists, etc.) were
       selected for the survey by us. The 1st survey was taken from Dec. 1992
       to Feb. 1993 by the mailing and collection of questionnaires. The
       questionnaire contains the question about the estimated real incidence
       of cases and carriers in Japan in 1992, 1997 and 2002. It also includes
       the questions about the attack rate of carriers, the method of AIDS
       education and the possibility of practical use of vaccination. The 2nd
       survey was taken from Sep. 1993 to Nov. 1993 for 94 respondents, mailing
       the 2nd questionnaire with statistical data of the 1st survey. RESULTS
       AND CONCLUSIONS: The number of final respondents of the 2nd survey was
       60. The range of each index was reduced about by half. Estimated medians
       of cumulative AIDS cases (excluding the cases of
       haemophilia/coagulation) in Japan at the end of 1992, 1997 and 2002 were
       200, 1,200, and 3,500 respectively, and those of HIV carriers (excluding
       AIDS cases) were 1,500, 10,000, 18,300 respectively. If these medians
       are adopted as dominators, the coverage rate of AIDS case is calculated
       at 90.0% and that of HIV carriers becomes 57.7%. Estimated median of the
       final attack rate of AIDS for carriers was 95%. The majority of
       respondents thought that the appropriate time for the basic AIDS
       education was junior high school grades. About half of the respondents
       answered in the affirmative to the question of the practical use of
       vaccination. The limitation of Delphi method as statistical technique
       should surely be recognized, but the coverage rates of the HIV infection
       in Japan seemed not so low as generally assumed.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION &
       CONTROL/TRANSMISSION  AIDS Vaccines/ADMINISTRATION & DOSAGE  Delphi
       Technique  Forecasting  Health Education  Human  HIV
       Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION & CONTROL/TRANSMISSION  HIV
       Seropositivity/EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION  HIV Seroprevalence/*TRENDS
       Japan/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Models, Statistical  Population Surveillance
       MEETING ABSTRACT

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
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