Document 2315
 DOCN  M94A2315
 TI    Exponential phase of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Japan.
 DT    9412
 AU    Inaba I; Institute of Population Problems, Tokyo, Japan.
 SO    Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):332 (abstract no. PC0263). Unique
       Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370260
 AB    OBJECTIVE: Since the establishment of AIDS surveillance system in Japan
       at May 1989, the reported cumulative AIDS incidence in Japan has been
       growing exponentially. However the number of HIV infecteds can not be
       observed by official statistics. Our main concern here is to estimate
       the prevalence of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Japan and its possible
       consequences. METHODS: We apply the stable population theory in
       demography to model the exponential phase of HIV/AIDS epidemic. Under
       the assumption of stable growth of infected population, we induce some
       mathematical relations between the Malthusian parameter, incidence rate,
       the size of cumulative AIDS incidence, the number of infected population
       and the basic reproduction ratio. Next some numerical simulations are
       done to examine possible consequences of controlling the basic
       reproduction ratio. RESULTS: We conclude that the ratio of the
       cumulative AIDS incidence to unknown size of infected population
       (exclude infection by contaminated blood products) in the exponential
       phase in Japan could be estimated to be about one to nine. However it is
       observed that this estimate is rather sensitive to the choice of the
       incubation period distribution. The number of living AIDS patients would
       continue to grow over 20 years from now. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The
       mathematical method developed here to estimate the prevalence of
       HIV/AIDS epidemic in the exponential phase is simple and easy to handle,
       but it would be helpful for policy makers to recognize the growth
       characters and its moment of infected populations.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION &
       CONTROL/TRANSMISSION  Computer Simulation  *Disease Outbreaks
       Forecasting  Human  HIV Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION &
       CONTROL/TRANSMISSION  HIV Seroprevalence/*TRENDS  Japan/EPIDEMIOLOGY
       Models, Statistical  *Population Surveillance  MEETING ABSTRACT

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
       protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).