Document 2316
 DOCN  M94A2316
 TI    Modelling HIV-infection among children in Quebec.
 DT    9412
 AU    Remis RS; Palmer RW; Centre for AIDS Studies, Montreal General Hospital
       Public Health; Unit, Quebec, Canada.
 SO    Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):331 (abstract no. PC0258). Unique
       Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370259
 AB    OBJECTIVE: To estimate HIV and AIDS incidence and prevalence among
       children (less than 15 years of age) in Quebec. METHODS: We established
       a transmission, progression and survival model using model parameters
       obtained from published studies on HIV maternal-fetal transmission, on
       progression from HIV to AIDS and survival following AIDS among children,
       from the results of a back-calculation (HIV prevalence among adults),
       from AIDS statistics (proportion of HIV-infections among women) and from
       demographic data (fertility rate). The model was developed independently
       for mothers from Pattern II countries, other mothers infected by
       heterosexual contact, and injection drug users (IDU). Model outputs were
       compared to adjusted AIDS incidence, provincial mortality statistics and
       data on clinic populations treated at two Montreal pediatric hospitals
       (caring for the majority of diagnosed HIV-infected children in Quebec)
       and adjusted accordingly. RESULTS: To December 1993, an estimated 105
       children have been infected by HIV at birth in Quebec, of whom 51 have
       died. Of the 54 living HIV-infected children, 19 have AIDS. Thirty-three
       of the children are under 5 years of age; over 80% live in Montreal.
       Sixty-eight per cent were born to mothers from Pattern II countries
       (mostly Haiti), 23% other heterosexual contact and 9% IDU; this is in
       contrast to the estimated 86% from Pattern II countries of the 22
       children living with HIV in Quebec in December 1983. CONCLUSIONS: The
       number of children living with HIV in Quebec is still relatively small.
       Based on our results, we estimate the HIV prevalence among Montreal
       children under 5 years old at 0.27 per 1,000 or 1 in 3680. Nevertheless,
       assuming random allocation, the probability of at least one HIV-infected
       child in a day-care centre of 60 children in Montreal would be 1.6%.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/MORTALITY/
       TRANSMISSION  Child  Child, Preschool  Female  Follow-Up Studies  Human
       HIV Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/MORTALITY/TRANSMISSION  HIV
       Seroprevalence/TRENDS  Infant  Infant, Newborn  *Models, Statistical
       Pregnancy  Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/EPIDEMIOLOGY
       Quebec/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Survival Rate  MEETING ABSTRACT

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
       protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).