Document 2318
 DOCN  M94A2318
 TI    Extrapolation of peak and possible decline of HIV incidence in Asia.
 DT    9412
 AU    Sankaran H; Manoharan SJ; Sankaran SD
 SO    Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):331 (abstract no. PC0260). Unique
       Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370257
 AB    OBJECTIVE: To extrapolate the annual incidence of HIV in Asia and
       project its peak and decline following the module of other geographical
       areas. METHODS: Based on the relationship between the detection of the
       first HIV case in N. America, Europe, Latin America and Africa and the
       progression of the AIDS edidemic, its peaking and levelling,
       computations can be made to project when the annual incidence of HIV
       infection will peak & level off in Asia. DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION: When a
       stabilization or decline is observed in the annual incidence of HIV, it
       can perhaps be correlated to the STD/HIV prevention/intervention
       measures undertaken in respective areas. Once a relationship is
       established between progression & decline of the epidemic and
       education/intervention programmes, a similar module can be adopted in
       Asia too to prevent the onset of the AIDS epidemic. TABULAR DATA, SEE
       ABSTRACT VOLUME.
 DE    Adult  Asia/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Female  Forecasting  Human  HIV
       Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION & CONTROL/TRANSMISSION  HIV
       Seroprevalence/*TRENDS  Male  Risk Factors  Sexually Transmitted
       Diseases/EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION & CONTROL/  TRANSMISSION  World Health
       Organization  MEETING ABSTRACT

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