Document 2319
 DOCN  M94A2319
 TI    Country-specific projections of the demographic impact of AIDS in the
       coming decades.
 DT    9412
 AU    Way PO; Stanecki K; Center for International Research, U.S. Bureau of
       the Census,; Washington, DC 20233.
 SO    Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):331 (abstract no. PC0259). Unique
       Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370256
 AB    BACKGROUND. Levels of HIV infection continue to increase in many
       countries, exceeding 5 percent of adults in urban areas in 13 African
       countries and Haiti. At such levels, AIDS will begin to have substantial
       demographic effects, even at the national level. METHODS. Data from the
       HIV/AIDS Surveillance Database were used to establish HIV trends for
       each of these countries. Each trend was matched to scenarios developed
       using a mathematical AIDS model (iwgAIDS). The associated AIDS mortality
       was combined with mortality rates projected with no AIDS.
       Cohort-component methods were used to project the population of each
       country to the year 2050, including AIDS mortality. RESULTS. AIDS
       epidemics vary considerably, even among countries most affected. At the
       epidemic's peak, life expectancy declines range from 9 to over 25 years
       in these countries, compared to no AIDS. AIDS reduces population growth
       rates by up to 2 percentage points, but population growth continues. In
       these 13 African countries as a whole, AIDS more than doubles total
       deaths by 2010. Crude death rates increase up to 150 percent. The 2020
       population size of these countries is reduced by over 100 million,
       compared to no AIDS. This difference results from direct AIDS mortality,
       fewer births, and lost future population growth. CONCLUSION. Countries
       in which AIDS epidemics have already taken off must begin to the plan
       for the likely increases in mortality in the coming decades. Countries
       with lower HIV prevalence should act quickly to implement control and
       prevention programs.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/MORTALITY/
       TRANSMISSION  Africa/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Cause of Death  Cohort Studies
       *Cross-Cultural Comparison  Forecasting  Haiti/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Human  HIV
       Seroprevalence/*TRENDS  Population Growth  Survival Analysis  Urban
       Population/*STATISTICS & NUMER DATA  MEETING ABSTRACT

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