Document 2322
 DOCN  M94A2322
 TI    Estimating the global impact of interventions to decrease the spread of
       HIV in developing countries by the year 2000.
 DT    9412
 AU    Schopper D; Auvert B; Global Programme of AIDS, WHO, Geneva, Suisse.
 SO    Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):330 (abstract no. PC0253). Unique
       Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370253
 AB    OBJECTIVE: To estimate the possible impact of changes in sexual
       behaviour, increased access to STD treatment and effective blood
       screening on future HIV incidence in developing countries. METHODS:
       Available behavioural data and a Monte-Carlo simulation model
       (SIMULAIDS) were used to estimate the number of new HIV infections that
       could be averted if certain behaviour changes were induced and
       sustained. Based on previous cost estimates of prevention interventions,
       the cost-effectiveness of global preventive efforts was assessed.
       RESULTS: According to GPA's projections, a total of 19.5 million new
       adult HIV infections would occur in developing countries between 1992
       and 2000. If the changes as defined above take place in all regions
       starting in 1993 and are maintained thereafter due to continuous
       prevention efforts, an estimated 10 million HIV infections could be
       averted by the year 2000, which represents a 57% reduction in new
       infections. About 4.2 million could be averted in Africa, 4.8 million in
       Asia and 1 million in Latin-America. Cost per DHLY saved would be $50 to
       $100. CONCLUSION: This is the first attempt to estimate the impact a
       worldwide AIDS prevention effort would have on future HIV infections,
       showing that a dramatic decrease in the spread of HIV could be achieved.
       The cost of implementing preventive interventions in all developing
       countries is high ($1.3 to $2.5 billion), but the cost per DHLY gained
       is reasonable.
 DE    Blood Transfusion/ECONOMICS/STATISTICS & NUMER DATA  Blood-Borne
       Pathogens  Communicable Disease Control/ECONOMICS/TRENDS  Computer
       Simulation  Cost-Benefit Analysis  *Developing Countries  Health
       Services Accessibility/ECONOMICS/STATISTICS & NUMER DATA  Human  HIV
       Infections/EPIDEMIOLOGY/*PREVENTION & CONTROL/TRANSMISSION  HIV
       Seroprevalence/*TRENDS  Monte Carlo Method  Sex Behavior  MEETING
       ABSTRACT

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
       protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).