Document 2455
 DOCN  M94A2455
 TI    A birth cohorts analysis of Brazilian AIDS cases, 1980-93.
 DT    9412
 AU    Struchiner C; Rodrigues L; Castilho E; Stoneburner R; Sereno A; Lauria
       L; Loures L; Ministry of Health, Brasilia, Brazil.
 SO    Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):300 (abstract no. PC0127). Unique
       Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370120
 AB    OBJECTIVES: To describe the dependence of HIV incidence on age, time,
       gender, mode of transmission and geographic region. METHODS: Reported
       AIDS case series from 1980 to 1992 are disaggregated into composite
       birth cohorts and stratified by gender, mode of transmission and
       geographic region. The number of new cases of AIDS reported each year is
       then plotted against time for each stratum allowing for visual
       comparison of the growth curves. In addition, 3D growth curves relating
       age, time and reported number of new cases are also plotted with the
       same purpose. 2D and 3D statistical smoothing techniques are used to
       improve visualization. HIV incidence is estimated for each disaggregated
       case series through the use of the backcalculation technique. RESULTS:
       (1) a general pattern of declining growth rates in AIDS incidence in
       older cohorts born in 1960-69 is seen among homosexual males; (2) the
       epidemics in IVDUs appears to have affected or is currently affecting
       much younger cohorts, and to have occurred later in time than the
       epidemics in homosexual males; (3) peak cohorts in regions of high
       frequency of AIDS associated with IVDU are younger than in those with
       low frequency. A simple 3D plot comparing cohort trends among IVDUs is
       as follows: TABULAR DATA, SEE ABSTRACT VOLUME. CONCLUSIONS: The cohort
       patterns observed suggest that there is a rapidly evolving epidemic of
       very young IVDUs in certain regions of Brazil. The fact that this is
       occurring in such a young age group who are entering a peak period of
       sexual activity makes for a dangerous situation which could allow for
       efficient spread to the young heterosexual population.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION
       Brazil/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Cohort Studies  Homosexuality/STATISTICS & NUMER
       DATA  Human  Incidence  Male  Substance Abuse, Intravenous/COMPLICATIONS
       MEETING ABSTRACT

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
       protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).