Document 2549
 DOCN  M94A2549
 TI    Estimating the magnitude of three epidemics: infection, disease and
       mortality in Mexico.
 DT    9412
 AU    Valdespino JL; Garcia ML; del Rio A; Salcedo A; Magis C; Mora JL;
       Sepulveda J; INDRE, SCD, Secretariat of Health, Mexico.
 SO    Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):279 (abstract no. PC0036). Unique
       Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370026
 AB    OBJECTIVE. To estimate the magnitude of prevalence of infection, disease
       and death due to HIV in Mexico. METHODS. Analysis of the National AIDS
       Registry and HIV Laboratory Network. RESULTS. Up to Dec. 1993, 17,387
       AIDS cases have been notified. Estimation of the real number considering
       undernotification and delay in report is 27,000. Death has been notified
       in 50% of cases (13,500). Cumulated no. of infections is calculated to
       be between 67,000 to 108,000. Lower figure was calculated according to
       prevalence among blood donors (0.05%) and highest considering a ratio of
       infection: case of 4:1. Existing infected subjects for 1993 is
       calculated subtracting the no. of cases from the no. of cumulated
       infections (40,000 to 80,000) No. of existing cases during 1993 is
       calculated subtracting the no. of deaths from the no. of cases (13,500).
       New cases during 1993 was calculated as 4,000 cases, (annual progression
       of infection to AIDS case: 10%), deaths during 1993 as 3,300 (annual
       progression of AIDS case to death in 25%), and number of new infections
       as 4,000 to 8,000 (rate of of infection: case as 1:1 or 1:2.) The
       following model was constructed: TABULAR DATA, SEE ABSTRACT VOLUME.
       CONCLUSION. This model allows to estimate the magnitude of the epidemic
       in Mexico to guide control measures and health policies.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/EPIDEMIOLOGY/MORTALITY  Human  HIV
       Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY  Mexico/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Prevalence  MEETING
       ABSTRACT

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