Document 2553
 DOCN  M94A2553
 TI    HIV infection incidence based on seroprevalence data in Belo Horizonte,
       Brazil.
 DT    9412
 AU    Greco Dirceu B; Toledo Junior AC; Oliveira HC; Cordeiro P; Silva SR;
       Antunes C; Federal University of Minas Gerais, Brazil.
 SO    Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):278 (abstract no. PC0032). Unique
       Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370022
 AB    OBJECTIVE: Incidence data for HIV infection is lacking in most
       countries. It is described the estimation of incidence based on
       seroprevalence data. METHODS: From 1986 to 1992, 1,358
       homosexual/bisexual male at risk for HIV were evaluated at the
       Immunodeficiency Sector. Assuming that: 1) antibody to HIV is a
       consistent and persistent marker of the infection, 2) in a fixed
       population the rate of increase of seroprevalence reflects the rate at
       which new infections occur among uninfected persons, 3) fixed subgroups
       of general population can be defined by birth years, 4) since fixed
       subgroups rates at which new infections occur determinate rates in
       increase of seroprevalence, incidence rates can be estimated directly
       from serial birth-cohort-specific seroprevalence data. Thus HIV
       incidence was estimated based on data from 591 homosexual/bisexual HIV+
       male diagnosed at this high risk clinic. RESULTS: The HIV infection
       incidence rate had a mean of 8.0% per year (2.9-15.0%). The overall
       incidence was 1.3% per year. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION: The HIV
       infection incidence can be crudely estimated based on seroprevalence
       data. It maybe an useful method to estimate incidence in most
       institutions with seroprevalence data. The population here evaluated has
       a high incidence of HIV infection and could be a good group for future
       preventive vaccine trials.
 DE    Brazil/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Human  HIV Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY  HIV
       Seroprevalence  Incidence  Male  Risk Factors  Seroepidemiologic Methods
       Sex Behavior  MEETING ABSTRACT

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