Document 0302
 DOCN  M9550302
 TI    Modelling the female-to-male per-act HIV transmission probability in an
       emerging epidemic in Asia.
 DT    9505
 AU    Satten GA; Mastro TD; Longini IM Jr; Division of HIV/AIDS, Centers for
       Disease Control and Prevention,; Atlanta, GA 30333.
 SO    Stat Med. 1994 Oct 15-30;13(19-20):2097-106. Unique Identifier :
       AIDSLINE MED/95149005
 AB    The per-sexual-act probability of transmission of the human
       immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV) from an infected person to a
       susceptible sex partner can be determined from a simple model if the
       number of contacts each study participant has with infected partners is
       known. The unusual epidemiologic situation in the emerging HIV epidemic
       in Thailand allowed this quantity to be estimated from a cross-sectional
       study of young men conscripted into the Thai military in 1991. Although
       the simple model does not fit the data, an errors-in-variables approach
       provides a model with adequate fit. Other sources of lack of fit,
       including heterogeneity of the transmission probability, are discussed.
       With adjustment for measurement error, the per-act probability is
       estimated to be 0.056, an order of magnitude higher than similar
       estimates in North America. Because data indicate that recently infected
       persons may be more infectious, and because extensive HIV transmission
       in Thailand began in 1988, this difference may be due, in part, to a
       higher proportion of recently infected individuals in the emerging Thai
       epidemic from 1988 to 1991.
 DE    Adult  Bayes Theorem  Cross-Sectional Studies  Disease
       Outbreaks/*STATISTICS & NUMER DATA  *Disease Transmission, Horizontal
       Female  Human  HIV Infections/EPIDEMIOLOGY/*TRANSMISSION  Likelihood
       Functions  Male  Military Personnel  *Models, Biological  Prevalence
       Prostitution  Selection Bias  *Sex Behavior  Socioeconomic Factors
       Thailand/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Time Factors  JOURNAL ARTICLE

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
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