Document 0314
 DOCN  M9550314
 TI    Prediction and validation in the public health modelling of HIV/AIDS.
 DT    9505
 AU    Bailey NT
 SO    Stat Med. 1994 Oct 15-30;13(19-20):1933-43. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE
       MED/95148993
 AB    Mathematical models are an integral part of long-range scientific
       research and are broadly equivalent to the hypotheses to be tested.
       Validation consists: (1) in checking whether theoretical expectations
       are sufficiently close to observed values; and (2) in showing that
       theoretical constructions that pass the first test can also make
       verifiable predictions of future events. When modelling is used in
       operational situations to assist practical decision-making, as in the
       public health surveillance, prediction and control of infectious
       diseases, especially HIV/AIDS, it is easy to use the first criterion,
       but not so simple to implement the second. The paper discusses various
       methods of improving the validation of a specific classical
       compartmental model of HIV/AIDS geared to good serial public health data
       on AIDS incidence. These methods include model fitting to existing data,
       cross-checking findings with independent research results, general
       circumstantial support, and the possibility in special situations of the
       quasi-prediction of present or recent data using models fitted only to
       sufficiently distant past data.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY  Age of Onset
       Demography  Disease Notification  Forecasting  Human  HIV
       Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION  Incidence  Likelihood Functions
       *Models, Biological  Prevalence  Public Health/METHODS  *Reproducibility
       of Results  Risk Factors  Survival Analysis  JOURNAL ARTICLE

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
       protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).