Document 0315
 DOCN  M9550315
 TI    Seasonal and other short-term influences on United States AIDS
       incidence.
 DT    9505
 AU    Bacchetti P; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University
       of; California, San Francisco 94143-0840.
 SO    Stat Med. 1994 Oct 15-30;13(19-20):1921-31. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE
       MED/95148992
 AB    This paper models monthly AIDS diagnosis counts in terms of smooth
       secular trend, calendar month effects, and the number of workdays per
       month. A parameterization of month effects allows separation of true
       seasonal effects from a linear trend over the calendar year and an
       arbitrary June effect. There is strong evidence for seasonal patterns,
       other calendar month effects, and workday effects. Examination of
       subgroups defined by reporting delay, initial diagnosis, risk group, and
       region shows evidence for seasonal patterns in some diagnosis groups,
       for effects due to imputed diagnosis dates, and for effects due to
       patients' choices of when to seek diagnosis.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/DIAGNOSIS/*EPIDEMIOLOGY  Adolescence
       Adult  Bias (Epidemiology)  Demography  Disease Notification/STATISTICS
       & NUMER DATA  Female  Forecasting/*METHODS  Human  Incidence  Likelihood
       Functions  Male  Models, Statistical  Pneumonia, Pneumocystis
       carinii/EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION & CONTROL  Poisson Distribution  Risk
       Factors  Sarcoma, Kaposi's/EPIDEMIOLOGY  *Seasons  Support, U.S. Gov't,
       P.H.S.  United States/EPIDEMIOLOGY  JOURNAL ARTICLE

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
       protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).