Document 0353
 DOCN  M9590353
 TI    Progression to AIDS: a comparison of Australian and overseas findings.
 DT    9509
 AU    Law MG; National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, NSW.
 SO    Annu Conf Australas Soc HIV Med. 1994 Nov 3-6;6:141 (unnumbered
       abstract). Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE ASHM6/95291746
 AB    OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incubation distribution, defined as the time
       from seroconversion to AIDS, in Australia. METHODS: Data were available
       from two sources. (1) A cohort of people aged 13 years or more with HIV
       infection from a blood transfusion. To limit bias in the estimated
       incubation distribution, people who received a HIV test due to symptoms
       of HIV infection were excluded. (2) A cohort of men infected with HIV
       through homosexual contact and with a known or estimable date of
       seroconversion. To assess any bias due to differential follow-up, people
       who were not diagnosed with AIDS were, in one analysis, censored at
       their date of last active follow-up and, in a second analysis, assumed
       to be AIDS-free until 31 December 1993. RESULTS: In the blood
       transfusion cohort the cumulative AIDS incidence at four years was
       estimated to be 11.6% and the median time to AIDS 9.8 years. In the
       homosexual male cohort the cumulative AIDS incidence at four years and
       the median time to AIDS were 17.7% and 7.1 years respectively censoring
       at date last follow-up, and 13.2% and > 8 years respectively assuming
       follow-up until 31 December 1993. Overseas studies have given estimates
       of the cumulative AIDS incidence at four years in the range 8% to 17%,
       and median times to AIDS around 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: The estimates of
       the incubation distribution obtained from these two Australian cohorts
       are consistent with the results of overseas studies. Possible biases in
       the estimates are due to selection and reporting biases.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*DIAGNOSIS/EPIDEMIOLOGY/
       TRANSMISSION  Adolescence  Adult  Aged  Australia  Blood Transfusion
       Cohort Studies  Comparative Study  *Cross-Cultural Comparison  Female
       Follow-Up Studies  Homosexuality, Male  Human  HIV
       Seropositivity/*DIAGNOSIS/EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION  Male  Middle Age
       Selection Bias  MEETING ABSTRACT

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