Document 0356
 DOCN  M9590356
 TI    AIDS in Australia: have we reached the peak?
 DT    9509
 AU    Luo K; Law M; Kaldor J; National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical
       Research,; Sydney.
 SO    Annu Conf Australas Soc HIV Med. 1994 Nov 3-6;6:138 (unnumbered
       abstract). Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE ASHM6/95291743
 AB    OBJECTIVE: To estimate the past HIV incidence curve and predict future
       AIDS incidence in Australia. METHODS: Estimates of HIV and AIDS
       incidence were obtained using the statistical method of back-projection
       which reconstructs the epidemic based on the observed AIDS incidence and
       knowledge of the incubation distribution (defined as the time from HIV
       infection to AIDS diagnosis). Quarterly AIDS counts to the end of 1993
       were obtained from the National AIDS Registry, and were adjusted for
       reporting delays. The incubation distribution was estimated from
       published studies, and appropriate adjustments were made for changes in
       AIDS definition and effects of anti-retroviral and prophylactic
       treatments. RESULTS: The estimated HIV incidence curve showed a rapid
       increase in the early 1980s reaching a peak of over 700 cases per
       quarter around 1983, followed by a sharp decline. HIV incidence then
       stabilised around 200 per quarter from 1987 onwards. The observed AIDS
       incidence rose rapidly from 1984, but the rate of increase slowed down
       around 1989. AIDS incidence is predicted to reach a plateau of about 900
       cases per year in 1994-95 and is then expected to decline gradually.
       CONCLUSION: AIDS incidence in Australia has almost reached the peak. The
       predicted AIDS incidence for 1991 to 1994 made here is higher than that
       given by the National Working Group on HIV Projections in April 1992,
       probably as we have adjusted quarterly AIDS counts for reporting delays.
       Predictions, however, may be affected due to lack of knowledge of the
       incubation distribution (particularly beyond 10 years after HIV
       infection), the unknown effect of anti-retroviral and prophylactic
       treatments, and underreporting of AIDS.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY  Australia/EPIDEMIOLOGY
       Cross-Sectional Studies  Forecasting  Human  HIV
       Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY  Incidence  MEETING ABSTRACT

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
       protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).