Document 0268
 DOCN  M95B0268
 TI    HIV transmission in sexual networks: an empirical analysis.
 DT    9511
 AU    Service Sk; Blower SM; Department of Psychiatry, University of
       California San Francisco; 94143, USA.
 SO    Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 1995 Jun 22;260(1359):237-44. Unique
       Identifier : AIDSLINE MED/95357362
 AB    Risk behaviour and egocentric sexual network data collected from a large
       random sample of young gay men in San Francisco were analysed to assess
       the importance of sexual mixing (i.e. sexual networks) in the
       acquisition of HIV. These data were collected in 1993, during wave one
       of a longitudinal cohort study of HIV transmission in gay men; the
       seroprevalence level in the sample was 18%. We identify recent sexual
       mixing patterns and we demonstrate that seropositives and seronegatives
       have very different age-stratified sexual mixing patterns. We show that
       sexual mixing can explain the current seroprevalence patterns in the
       young gay community; seroprevalence levels in risk groups reflect the
       degree of sexual mixing with the older (and more heavily infected) age
       group. Our results suggest that seropositives became infected with HIV
       not simply owing to an increased rate of acquisition of sex partners,
       but also as a result of their sexual mixing pattern. We develop and
       apply a simple methodology that uses the sexual network data in
       combination with risk behaviour data to estimate the future number of
       seroconverters. Our methodology is validated by testing our predictions
       against the observed seroconversion data collected during wave two of
       the cohort study in 1994. Our analyses empirically demonstrate (for the
       first time) the significance of sexual mixing as a risk factor for HIV
       transmission.
 DE    Adolescence  Adult  Age Factors  Cohort Studies  Comparative Study
       *Homosexuality, Male  Human  HIV Infections/EPIDEMIOLOGY/*TRANSMISSION
       HIV Seronegativity  HIV Seropositivity  *HIV Seroprevalence
       Longitudinal Studies  Male  Risk-Taking  San Francisco/EPIDEMIOLOGY
       *Sex Behavior  Support, Non-U.S. Gov't  Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.
       JOURNAL ARTICLE

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