Foreign Correspondent Inside Track On World News By International Syndicated Columnist & Broadcaster Eric Margolis ,,ggddY"""Ybbgg,, ,agd888b,_ "Y8, ___`""Ybga, ,gdP""88888888baa,.""8b "888g, ,dP" ]888888888P' "Y `888Yb, ,dP" ,88888888P" db, "8P""Yb, ,8" ,888888888b, d8888a "8, ,8' d88888888888,88P"' a, `8, ,8' 88888888888888PP" "" `8, d' I88888888888P" `b 8 `8"88P""Y8P' 8 8 Y 8[ _ " 8 8 "Y8d8b "Y a 8 8 `""8d, __ 8 Y, `"8bd888b, ,P `8, ,d8888888baaa ,8' `8, 888888888888' ,8' `8a "8888888888I a8' `Yba `Y8888888P' adP' "Yba `888888P' adY" `"Yba, d8888P" ,adP"' `"Y8baa, ,d888P,ad8P"' ``""YYba8888P""'' INDIA'S NUCLEAR GENIE - By Eric Margolis January 21, 1996 In December, US spy satellites detected intense activity at Pokaran, India's top secret nuclear test site deep in the Thar Desert of Rajastan. To head off what Washington believed was an impending nuclear explosion, US intelligence leaked the story to the media. The ploy worked. India denied any intention to stage a nuclear test. Activity at Pokaran slowed. Nevertheless, US intelligence remains convinced that India is still racing to become a world-class nuclear power. In 1974, India detonated a nuclear device at Pokaran, made from weapon-grade plutonium reprocessed from a Cirus reactor supplied, without safeguards, by Canada. Since then, India's nuclear weapons program has gone into high gear, based on two technology tracks: plutonium reprocessing; and uranium enrichment by gas centrifuge. India has three reprocessing plants operational, with two more planned. With secret help from France, the Soviet Union, Germany, and Israel, India built an elaborate nuclear infrastructure that includes ten major reactors, the reprocessing plants, production of heavy water and thorium, and a fast-breeder reactor. The cost is enormous for a nation in which two thirds of its 934 million people live in abject poverty - and that still receives large amounts of aid from the west and Japan. US and Pakistani intelligence estimate India to have stockpiled 800 kgs of weapons-grade plutonium, enough for 65-80 mid-yield nuclear weapons. India is believed to also have six uranium-based weapons. India's production of unsafeguarded, weapons-grade plutonium should rise to 650 kgs annually by 1998. Intelligence sources say India has forward-deployed 20 nuclear bombs, which can be delivered by its Mirage 2000, Jaguar, and late MiG-series fighter-bombers. An additional 20 nuclear weapons are ready in storage. More weapons can be quickly assembled from components. India is also developing longer-ranged delivery systems. Its `Prithvi' missile, now being deployed, can deliver a nuclear warhead to most of Pakistan,Tibet and southwest China. Delhi is working on an intermediate range ballistic missile, and developing an intercontinental version, capable of putting a heavy satellite into high orbit or, possibly, reaching North America. Pakistan and China are watching India's missile programs with mounting alarm. The US has long tried to pressure Delhi into halting its covert weapons programs and signing the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty. The NPT limits the spread of nuclear technology and weapons under a strict inspection regime. India, however, refuses. Delhi insists it will not sign the NPT until all existing nuclear powers agree to a timetable for total disarmament. Who, says India, gave the US, Britain, France, Russia, China, Ukraine and Israel a monopoly on nuclear weapons? Does not India, the world's second most populous nation, have the same right as Britain or Israel to nuclear self- defense? Is it not as great - or greater - a power than France? India calls this `nuclear apartheid' a hypocritical and self-serving campaign by nuclear club members to deny other nations the very weapons they possess. India is correct. The Japanese nationalist, Konoe Fumimaro, put it well when he wrote, in 1918: `England and America, having won the war, will unify the world under their economic dominance and will rule the world, using the League of Nations (read UN today) and arms limitations to fix the status quo that serves their purposes.' Any attempt by late-developing nations to challenge the status quo, he predicted, would be damned as `aggression' and disturbance of the world order. Or, as George Bernard Shaw said of the victorious Allies after World War I, `they transform their ambition into a sacred cause.' This is how Delhi sees US- imposed nuclear arms control. There is broad popular support in India for an expanded nuclear arsenal. The neo-fascist Hindu opposition party, BJP, demands more nuclear weapons and a new world role for a muscular India as an equal of the US, Russia and China. Many Indians believe nuclear weapons will earn for them the respect they often fail to encounter abroad. They are more likely to meet with fear and mistrust. Pakistan was forced to develop its own modest nuclear program after enemy India detonated its first device. Already outnumbered 3:1 by India, Pakistan could not allow Delhi an unchallenged nuclear monopoly. After years of sacrifice, and crushing punishment by the US, Pakistan managed to develop a handful of nuclear weapons. Today, nuclear-armed India and Pakistan face down one another in strife-torn Kashmir. . China is beefing up its nuclear forces targeted on India, and warns of the terrible cost of a new arms race between Beijing and Delhi. Iran frets about India's bombs and has its own secret nuclear program under way. Israel has also gotten deeply involved in Asia's nuclear arms race, secretly aiding India, while trying to push the US to force Pakistan and Iran out of the nuclear arms business. India may need a few nuclear weapons to counter China's medium-sized nuclear force. It does not, however, need the tactical or strategic missiles, nuclear submarines, or bombers it is now procuring. These are merely props of great-power pretensions. A nation in which hundreds of millions sleep in the streets has far more urgent priorities than developing a massive nuclear arsenal. Copyright, Eric Margolis, January 1996 ************************************************* --------------------------------------------------------------- To receive Foreign Correspondent via email send a note to Majordomo@lglobal.com with the message in the body: subscribe foreignc To get off the list, send to the same address but write: unsubscribe foreignc Back Issues can be obtained from: ftp.lglobal.com/pub/foreignc For Syndication Information please contact: Email: emargolis@lglobal.com FAX: (416) 960-4803 Smail: Eric Margolis c/o Editorial Department The Toronto Sun 333 King St. East Toronto Ontario Canada M5A 3X5 ---------------------------------------------------------------