SB PROP @ ARRL $ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation DE KT7H
QST DE W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16  ARLP016
>From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  April 22, 1994
To All Radio Amateurs
 
Solar activity was up a bit over the past week, with average flux
about nine points higher.  Conditions were severely disturbed on
the 17th, with auroral activity visible across the northern United
States.  Geomagnetic activity should stay mostly normal until the
beginning of May, when recurring coronal holes rotate into view.
Flux should rise to around 105 on May 3 or 4, and then fall back to
current levels by the middle of the month.
 
K8MLV points out an error in last week's ARLP015 when it was
reported that solar flux at the beginning of April was the lowest
since 1987.  Rick reports that as recently as September of last
year the flux was 70, almost three points lower than the value
mentioned last week.
 
Sunspot Numbers from April 14 through 20 were 28, 29, 26, 38, 38,
52 and 41, with a mean of 36.  10.7 cm flux was 79.4, 80.1, 81.7,
81.8, 84.2, 85.4 and 86.2, with a mean of 82.7.
 
The projection for this week is from Los Angeles, California to
Paraguay.
 
80 meters looks good from 0200z to 1030z, peaking around 0430z to
0930z.  Check 40 meters from 0130z to 1100z, with the best period
from 0230z to 1000z.  30 meters should be open from 0030z to 1130z,
peaking around 0230z to 1000z.  20 meters should be good from 2200z
to 0800z, with the best signals after darkness covers both ends of
the path.  17 meters should be open from 1400z to 0630z, with the
best signals toward the end of the period.  15 meters should be
good from 1600z to 0500z.  10 and 12 meters may be open on some
days.  Check 12 meters from 1730z to 0230z and 10 meters around
2100z to 2130z.