SB PROP @ ARRL $ARLP031
ARLP031 Propagation DE KT7H
QST DE W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 31  ARLP031
>From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  August 5, 1994
To All Radio Amateurs
 
Solar activity is quite low.  Over every day last week the flux
values were lower than the average for the previous ninety days, and
both the flux and sunspot numbers were slightly lower than the
preceding week.  This does not look good for HF propagation in
general, and the higher bands in particular.  At least geomagnetic
indices have been quiet and in the single digits.  The only
unsettled day last week was July 28, when the A index went to 17 and
the K index briefly to four.
 
Activity should pick up a bit this week, with the flux expected to
stay around 80 until the middle of the month.  There may be some
slightly active periods around August 12 and 19.  Flux values should
drop back to around 75 by August 20, and remain there through the
beginning of September.
 
Sunspot Numbers from July 28 through August 3 were 25, 11, 25, 14,
33, 24 and 19, with a mean of 21.6.  10.7 cm flux was 74.8, 75.7,
75.3, 75, 74, 75 and 76, with a mean of 75.1.
 
The path projection for this week is from Phoenix, Arizona to the
Marshall Islands.
 
80 meters looks good from 0630z to 1330z, and 40 meters from 0530z
to 1400z.  Check 30 meters from 0430z to 1500z, and 20 meters around
1830z to 1930z and again from 0200z to 0900z, peaking around 0600z
to 0830z.  Another 20 meter opening is probable around 1330z to
1445z.  17 meters looks good from 1830z to 0600z, and 15 meters
looks good on most days from 2200z to 0230z.  10 and 12 meters do
not look promising over this path at this time.
/EX