SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042
ARLP042 Propagation de KT7H
 
ZCZC AP56
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42  ARLP042
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  October 14, 1994
To all radio amateurs 
 
SB PROP ARL ARLP042
ARLP042 Propagation de KT7H
 
Solar flux was up about 11 points over the previous week.
Conditions were unstable, with several days of high A index, and the
K index at four and five on many occasions.  The instability is due
to radiation from recurring coronal holes.  Conditions should
stabilize somewhat after this weekend, but could become poor again
around October 23 and 24 and again at the end of the month, with the
worst conditions centered around October 30.  All of these
predictions are based on observation of the previous solar rotation.
Because the Sun rotates relative to the Earth every twenty seven and
one half days, areas producing difficult conditions are forecast
based upon what was observed about four weeks earlier.
 
Expect solar flux to gradually drop over the next couple of weeks,
and then rise back to the current level during the beginning of
November.
 
Sunspot Numbers for October 6 through 12 were 78, 79, 65, 73, 70, 73
and 71, with a mean of 72.7.  10.7 cm flux was 84.2, 83.8, 86.1, 87,
86.9, 87.6 and 88.1, with a mean of 86.2.
 
The path projection for this week is from Clinton, Oklahoma to
Brazil.
 
80 meters should be open from 2345 to 0930z, and 40 meters from
2300 to 1015.  30 meters looks good from 2200 to 0800, and again
around 0930 to 1030.  Check 20 meters around 1400 to 1500 and
again from 1900 to 0100.  17 meters should be open from 1500 to
2300, and 15 meters from 1600 to 2200. On many days 12 meters may
be open around 1800 to 2000, and on some days it may open an hour
earlier and close an hour later.  On a few days 10 meters may be
open over the same period.  
NNNN
/EX