SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de KT7H
 
ZCZC AP62
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48  ARLP048
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  November 18, 1994
To all radio amateurs 
 
SB PROP ARL ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de KT7H
 
Solar flux was down a few points last week, hovering around 80.
Geomagnetic disturbances were also down, with the A index in the
single digits.
 
Solar flux should rise about 10 points over the next week, and then
drop below 80 through mid December.  Active geomagnetic conditions
should return around November 20 and 21, and there is the
possibility of a geomagnetic storm around November 27 and 28.
 
The latest long range forecast shows solar flux an average two
points lower a year from now, and 13 points lower two years from
now.  The current solar flux cycle is now expected to reach minimum
around October, 1996, with a sunspot minimum around May of that
year.  Current projections show the next solar flux cycle peak
around August, 2000.
 
Sunspot Numbers for November 10 through 16 were 45, 45, 69, 11, 11,
11 and 36, with a mean of 32.6.  10.7 cm flux was 80, 79, 80.2,
81.2, 78.7, 79 and 79, with a mean of 79.6.
 
This week we have a special forecast for Sweepstakes with two
domestic path projections.
 
The path from Seattle to Arizona should be open on 80 meters from
2245z to 1600z.  40 meters will probably be open around the clock,
with the best signals from 0630z to 1100z.  20 meters looks good
from 1700z to 2300z.  15 meters does not look good over this path,
except for possibly around 2000z.
 
The Illinois to Florida path should be good on 80 meters from 2100
to 1330z, and 40 meters around the clock.  Check 20 meters from 1430
to 2100.  There is a possibility of an opening on 15 meters around
1730 to 1900.
NNNN
/EX